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Everything posted by Tn9
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I wasn't tbh ,and its changed the little low futher east so I guess thats why we had warning but what gfs said yesterday the met office already new ,so really till tomorrow eve we seem now to maybe get showers from South west for some then a very light north easterly in East Kent,watching the precipitation is an up to date ,live say ,on exact positioning ..what happens its going to be slow is what I was trying to say
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If they ( showers ) move which is painful watching them.(slow ) get one over head it could dump a lot on you ..its getting them over head ,met office are one step ahead even on guessing ,because global models are mammoth processing power but trying to pin point a little circulation in channel and also just off the Philippines is hell of a thing to work out
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Still is isn't it ,we have trees with leaves .. till last one falls its not over is it
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See its where some thing sets its self up (circulation wise )models struggle with that ,like big area of relatively low pressure 1008 -1012 say ,it knows its that because of readings ,but like tropical disturbances it's not sure where exactly the circulation will be ,but to us it means everything,dont forget unlike summer convergence,its the opposite ,we are not going to get an on shore unless there is forcing ,sea is so much warmer than land however you look at it And thats a radar job ..as is
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But high cloud this afternoon or medium height was moving north east so somethings afoot ,I reckon unless strong..its west Sussex,East Sussex,Surrey at a push ,me and you out of the game ..watch us get loads now lol . Ps I didnt know about what your said about wind farms....thanks for that ,what does it do throw moisture up and fool the radar ???
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But there is a window for us al ,in the same period like it has been all along later tomorrow,but we need a circulation in channel to throw a brief southerly , like (gfs says maybe just south of Isle of Wight stronger the better so we least have half a chance in the cold air and warm water to the south but like yourself we haven't much channel to play with like an easterly ,unless its stronger feature and devopes a little through ,then the big boys come along and floors us but by looks not all is lost later ( but 20 odd miles of water maybe not enough for heavy showers for us here
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Not really because if oregon didn't have dirty great mountains (cascades ) or california (Sierra nevada)they wouldn't get much snow either ,mount st helens ,mount hood ,etc are anomalies because they are volcanoes ,really high ,but they on the coast have same problem,unless like us they get the wind right ,with the main drivers el nino etc ,they have dirty great high sitting like we do over Europe or azores , Japan would, if there was one ,an island in the Atlantic would be just off nova scotia ps you don't want us to be like japan ,if its not snowing its a typhoon,if not massive waves ,or just when didn't need it earthquake
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Yea I agree but only because in the slack its trying to find a little centre or a couple of them , upper level cloud is already coming from sw so its a look at radar job tomorrow,at the moment I reckon Sussex,Dorset inland of course ,where they are initiated is not always where they dump their goods ..warm water ,less it generates a little feature which is not out of the realms of possibility by a long shot
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But if produces something for us we need it run through quick and not pull warmer air up from down saaf,if the slack area of low pressure over north sea atm would either fill quickly or at least drop south we would get what you said even now ,but it doesn't seem to be in much of hurry there was one big hefty shower in southern North Sea see that didn't know where to go because of no proper wind direction its foated about there most of the night ,may be if anything a stray shower from the north west but that's a fair way to keep its intensity