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Everything posted by Tn9
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Just a lovely rainy day ..light to .moderate rain just what thr dr ordered ...just off topic a bit ,but just watched a programme about the nuclear explosion in soviet Union in 86 ...how by seeding the clouds they stopped a disaster in Moscow by making it rain in Belarus..so fossil fuels are one thing ..does models take in modifications human made modifications?? I doubt it, but its been going on longer than we think it has and tbh must have a knock on effect somewhere down the line, must have mustn't it ??
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I see that coming a few miles away tbh .. from jacko to three nights on the run ,we been having it now ..that was yesterday evening ..but rain today (what happened to that btw) no storms, but rain which is a god send (and while he was here collected lizzie god bless ya ) Video.Guru_20220908_200313186.mp4
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Tn9 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The SHIPS model is a good example of what has become sensor based system instead of seeing it for yourself ....(Statistical hurrcane Intensity Prediction Scheme )...climate models to a degree (excuse the pun) get loads of mis calculations..we actually know they are under estimating lots of things ...statistics only represent past scenarios..its not that simple anymore and those models also take data from dynamical models ..but obervers on our out posts see much different things happening .so something else is at play (maybe positive feed back ) -
I see gfs has earl or remnants steaming up channel on last run ,maybe we will get a couple millimetres out of that ..Danielle more than likely to steam north and melt Greenland at bit more oh all change Danielle will give or try to give us a shower ..Earl now is going north..total swap from 36 hours ago ..
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Cor your taking a risk my friend ...religiously and meteorology wise .. ..believing in seeding and its knock on effects to other places ..but I was sent down the swaney with it ..I know it does , you know it does ,it must have a butterfly affect ..like kicking the can down the road...but no, I was a nut case .. I'm no scientist but it must have an affect somewhere else ...like coal ,like wood ,and at its extreme asbestos..miracle stuff at the time now we won't go near it with barge pole:(
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Blimey nobody has commented for how long? ..6 hours ..all must be dandy ,feels like the tumble weed of the south east is blowing down the forums halls ..pleasant I guess...but you see if we believe models that its going to change to a wet wet autumn ..climate change here seems you get everything or nothing...:(
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The pillar of autumn ...this morning in Sevenoaks all erupted...bouncing it was ,lightning ,constant rumbling but it seemed all cut and run ..put the fires out at least....more sewage in sea I see ..France have thrown book at us ..polluters we are for sure ..medieval systems no investments just more houses no thought ..they couldn't plan s p**s up in a brewery ... 20220825_061223_002.mp4
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Well give it a couple of years get your licence get a fully equipped chase car..but like Kent County Councils snow ploughs your be parked up most of the year unlike the states ...electricmumma ..if the storm doesn't come to me then ..I listen to people on here who have had one ..but there nothing better I agree than a storm over your own head:-).. I've got back end if something going over now from sw to ne
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Only 29c here today lol ..normally we would get few of them days in a summer and be over the moon ,now it seems its just run of the mill ,but to make it a typical 29c English version you need it to be humid , and we had it here today if you could see moisture and water vapour it would be like walking under or through water..thats what it felt like
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Oh mate ..how about your red head girl? cor you walking a tight rope there ,girls ain't like storms ,you know where its going to come from with a storm ,watch your back on the bus ,if girls were models (excuse the pun ) and blokes was the weather they would know what was going to happen before the weather knew ...anyway back to my moan 5 and a half weeks later...and yet we can't do this or that with the hose ..totally wrong..its not a back back street its the A227