winterof79

Yes if the Atlantic gets a slight upper hand that System could cause a few headaches

Strange goings on even Berlin height rises. Maybe those with greater knowledge can provide an insight into why Mogreps bucks the new trend

Thinking that is Tann Hill and with snow cover don't rule it out

The feature for Sunday in to monday shown on UKMO too is gathering traction.

Yes and the output will not show snow showers aligning at this range,..yet

Let the low drop south and allow streamers off the North Sea into very cold air.

The one Tight Isobar has flagged up a few times

UKV 03Z Thursday open to change

I wish to god that someone hadn't started to use the term "phasing" some on here will be asking for their roasties to be phased with their gravy on Christmas day A coming together would have been nicer

Why are you looking at 240z for negatives? Hardly poor charts though even at that time scale. Height transfer to scandi was always on the cards however temporarily that may be

As i said yesterday the basic set up is cast. Cold starting to embed and lows running se along the tropical boundary and filling to our se. Inter run variations enevitable. This is an extrordinary chart for this time of year so enjoy it and don't get caught up in others negativity when they mis interpret the wider signals with one run

The general synoptic of cut off low (s) is gaining traction but specific locations remain open to movement

UKMO is very pleasing to the eye.

2009/10 brought decent cold spells especially after New Year.Slack cold pools and slow moving Thunder snow off the Irish see repeated frequently

That may well be true but here are the means for that day.Enough for them to sit up and take a lot of notice

Funny that made me chuckle

The difference being they are all now showing something very similar,obviously that is before the ECM comes out

I quote Cambrian "By day 6, we have the Atlantic ridge linking up with the Western Russian high, around the top of the Euro trough, temporarily cutting off the cold pool from the Arctic supply. The polar trough down through eastern Canada spawns a low pressure system, exiting through Greenland and Iceland and turning the upper flow into the UK and Ireland westerly." A temporary feature possibly. Do read the rest yourself Terrier.

Ver similar to ECM I'd say given the time frame

GFS touted heights building from the Atlantic a while back and here we have ECM agreeing.(after some time) Super charts for beginning of December. But keep banging the drums if you insist

As per the Eps clusters....interesting

In early winter, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forces a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole, which persists and tends to induce a nearly reversed NAO pattern in February. Plain Language Summary The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a crucial atmospheric system that significantly impacts the weather and climate of the surrounding regions during winter. However, it often reverses between early and late winter, and the reasons for its mid-winter reversal remain unclear. The NAO behavior can be influenced by multiple factors, such as atmospheric internal processes, underlying surface, and remote climate system, which makes the issue more complex. This study highlights the role of underlying sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the mid-winter reversal of NAO. The North Atlantic SSTAs are closely associated with the NAO and exhibit a tripole pattern. For strong sea surface temperature (SST) tripole events, the NAO primarily induces the early winter North Atlantic SST tripole. The SSTAs develop in early winter, peak in January, and feedback on the atmospheric circulation in late winter. The atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit an almost reversed NAO pattern in February, forming a wavetrain that propagates above the Gulf Stream to the Middle East. As a result, during the warm phase of the SST tripole, Europe experiences colder temperatures, and the Caspian Sea experiences warmer temperatures in February than usual, as opposed to the positive NAO’s control over warm Europe and cold Caspian Sea in December. Courtesy of AGU

Its not a flattening pattern im seeing bud

Its Tuesday it has got nothing correct yet and this forum is rapidly becoming a chest beating contest. Colder weather to arrive later in the week.After that Ecm shows something blocked and interesting for early winter. Good to see the back of never ending wind and rain here.