winterof79

AO tanking again sone very negative signals

yasus christus. More logs and coal required asap

Place your bets Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January Colder than average. Less settled later Next week looks like staying colder than average. High pressure presence should mean a lot of dry weather across the UK, at least through the first half of the week, but does mean widespread and sharp frosts with risks of persistent areas of fog and freezing fog. Any showers will be few and far between but could be wintry anywhere they occur. The second half of the week has a lot more uncertainty. There are signs that high pressure will retrogress into the Atlantic, which could allow frontal systems to slide around its eastern side and move southwards across the UK. These should bring a band or two of rain or wintry precipitation southwards with winds increasing, followed by sleet or snow showers, especially for the northern UK, as winds probably go north-westerly for a day or two. Details are hard to pin down at this range, but aside from a temporary rise as fronts approach, temperatures should remain below average. Take a look at the following week on the website

You are quite correct regarding high pressure systems hanging around for what seems like an eternity,however,the Pole and background signals were probably not conducive to what is being forecast now

Can't quite make that date out I'll borrow Scott Ingham glasses

Surface temps will remain low even when it warms aloft

The clusters going for Greenland if i read this correctly.

Yes,post day 10. Lets see how it transpires.

Sorry to bang on about this but how is this ,the 240z GEFs and EPS mean Western based. Western based NAO is west of Greenland

Most of those show high pressure to SE Greenland not further West.I posted them earlier to show this.

At an X 5, Sunday’s flare was much smaller than the flare recorded in 2003. It was, however, the strongest since September 2017, when an X 8.2 flare was detected, according to the SWPC. This flare also supersedes an X 2.8 solar flare reported in the same region of the sun on December 14. At the time, the SWPC reported that flare was “likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded.”

Looking good. The strat having undergone a major warming as we post has a little kick applied whilst down from the warming face of doom

Exactly.The post you were replying to is a perfect example of how the Model output discussion is going. People posting stating as fact with no model evidence.

Not really and way out in La la land.I was just replying to those claiming a western based NAO

Sometimes its best to look at charts away from NH as it distorts the position around Greenland and is not a western based NAO

Much as the Extended Met forecast implies.IF the milder influence occurs at all.

GEM doesn't and I'd say nor do the GEFS or the EPS (iknow they're yesterdays EPS)

Cracking start to January and as Met4 alluded to don't panic when they show a temporary rise as the high finds its home

That split has been rumbling about in the GEFS for some time.One to watch. Meteociel - Panel GEFS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Good response Kaz Fully agree that its about analyzing but i do wish some on here would not word their posts as if it is a done deal as that is what tends to spoil the discussions. When cold is showing most on here don't take it as a given but if there are slight downgrades certain posters will bring the "Game over" "Back to next chase" Garden path etc Just my take though and i enjoy your passion as you know. Looking forward to some snow analysis soon

Right a watching brief from me for a while as lessons need to be learned when dissecting every run as it can make one look foolish.Great post BA.How about we let the high evolve before plotting its demise and an Easterly was never the favoured option only from the models who showed a brief visit to our E/SE and that may still occur. A cold January awaits.

There is virtually no difference from the 0Z bud

Sense amidst the angst.

UKMO looks ok at 168 Nick

Super GEM its on the move