winterof79

I know that but it was compared to UKMO as a uk high

ECM 144z hardly a disaster and not UKMO like

And will change a few times before next weekend lol

Hence the "anything that falls will be snow" line from the MET

Once the high establishes cold anticyclonic inversions may occur with rime falling from freezing fog too.

Liking the Mogreps graph for Sheffield Meteociel - Ensembles, modèles ensemblistes WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Diagrammes, tableux et cartes des modès ensemblistes. Les ensembles sont générés à partir de perturbations des modèles...

Not much saying the high will sink to me

Top post Matt Having read in detail Tamara's posts before summer she got it spot on in my view. Hope she doesn't mind me reposting this from early June and she was one of the first to flag up the upcoming westerly influence that will be seen over Iberia after a very long period of static High pressure influence down there. "Yes. The sub tropical jet stream continues to be the interest as summer wavelengths take stage c/o a Nino-esque split flow driving an increasingly amplified trough in the Atlantic and corresponding tendency to inflate downstream ridges and warm air advection. Worth watching for renewed heat build moving north from southern Europe interplaying with the Atlantic trough. Which translates to larger and larger plumes and thundery potential across much of Europe/UK. Its been some time since this type of summer pattern has been seen. The broad scale trend should greatly please many rather than getting bogged down in the detail of each and every intra day output"

The modelling of the strength of the Genoa low is interesting as here we have Nasa ECM and UKMO developing the system sufficiently up to when i believe FI begins. GFS has more energy riding over the top to our North.

Bottom end of its suite but not a cold outlier. Im not getting this despondency today over a cold spell that really never was forecast to start until high pressure moves in. Writing off Jan on 31st Dec is brave.

To be honest i never expected snow at that time scale nor the Met. We seem to dream up earlier snowy spells when they were never fully on the table. A UK High or somewhere near in early Jan is fine to start with.

Good post that.Gradually getting colder day by day with low overnight minima.Get the cold pool in with little Atlantic influence and we are in the game .

Yes slack and primed to build a cold pool

"It is addictive isn't it. Enjoy the ride.I am quite confident of a much colder spell evolving old style,gradually get colder day on day but settled then ,either from the East or by repeated attempts at breakdown some will be buried." I sent this to a fellow poster earlier and Tamara has,very much more eloquently, mirrored by thoughts. A very solid cold block forming over NW Europe with no back ground drivers powerful enough to break it down this time.Indeed it will reinvigorate at any opportunity.

Possibly not

We could go further into La la land and still cold for a GEM moyenne ECM mean is nothing like Gfs thankfully

Lots going on up top And below.... enjoy

The Gefs do not concur with a sinking high.Nor do the METO ,as it stands

Do i spy an North/Easterly draught in the Debilt wind ensembles? I will throw the snowfall in too jff

luke you need to chillax and let the run unfold or you'll go bonkers bud

Sorry if i have misinterpreted your post but isn't the GFS a mild outlier later in its run?

After perusing the thread the above paragraph is precisely the camp in which i stand. A disrupted TPV and a previous Canadian warming.I can't think when we have been in this position before in late December/early January. All very new for many to digest hence the METO wording of : "but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal" It's very much to do with how far north the developing rossby wave influenced High can form.

Trending the right way

Any cold from 6/7th Jan is a bonus for me as not particularly forecast anyway. High building just to our NW and us on the cold and getting colder side is the favourite. Then the games begin