kumquat

Cold rain in Winterbourne. Dew point up to 1C. Need heavier ppn to get anything out of this.

Yes it's been too long. Might have to join Legritter in a couple of Stellas Made me giggle the other day when he cracked open the Stellas at midday! ("Only a half for me!!")

I know, I know - but it's so addictive!!

Few streamers forming up Anglesey way. Let's hope they can pep up and get over those Welsh Mountains..

ppl getting an earlier night in preparation for the lamp-post watching to come?

I agree with the sentiments of the old adage of getting the cold in first. Some of our most memorable west country snow has been from troughs appearing out of nowhere at very little notice, moving through embedded cold, or the battleground scenarios which might currently be showing as rain/sleet on the models. The inherent instability in such cold air masses and the combination of (relatively) warm SSTs combined with the fact that most of us in this region are somewhere close (ish) to coastal influences mean that things are more likely to crop up at close range out of nowhere (Pembrokeshire danglers, Bristol Channel streamers etc.), once the cold has had time to make the air frigid in our neck of the woods. It's really not worth paying too much close attention to model output for ppn. Much more important, imo, is that we get a few days worth of cold airmass over the region and then it's all to play for.

UKMO 144 looking splendid!

Seem to be more robust heights and WAA going north on th 00z as compared to 18z. Slowly coming around to the UKMO? 18z gfs 108hrs 00z gfs 102hrs

Yes @Iceberg cleaner flow from NNW on gfs 6z. Less impact from Icelandic shortwaves:

Sub zero 850s for ALL of the UK for ALL of the ECM run. Winter doth cometh. Disturbances running South East:

Seriously though, all data is OFF above Nuuk. If it's not wrong, its delayed. If it hasn't had US military clearance, its delayed.

Indeed, 10mb difference touted between model suites in the very near. I imagine the GFS guy in his tent on the Greenland Plateau (blue balls and frost in his eyes) looking up at the Europeans as their helicopter splutters and encounters lack of oxygen issues. The UK guys have just radioed in that they're just gonna make it up and go with the original curry flavour Pot Noodles next to their hexi burners for the night.

Interesting phenomenon that Azores Low. Courting both the build of HP into mid-Atlantic while dragging the flow of its predecessor parent low southeast like a magnet flipping poles, the two should be mutually exclusive yet are wholly entwined. I guess this is where energy splits and the reason why the vicinity houses one of the most pronounced features on the anomalies. Since it is happening now and enters the race at start data T=0, I’d suggest that we won’t get a grasp on it until transmissibility has completed. Somewhere mid-Atlantic, perhaps. The rest of the atmosphere can do as it wants, but in our neck of the woods, the outcome of this feature may well determine our fate.

You don't even need to say it Jay. Just turn up in the thread and we already know

Wow - that would light up the blizzards like it was daytime!

I've really gone and done it. I've committed the Cardinal Sin and gone and spouted off in my office! With charts like this - there's no time like the present!

Well, yes. Just a figure of speech from a bygone age! I'll have the 5 million candle "man-torch" to hand.

Best get some good kip in between now and next Tuesday. And dust off those lampposts.

Yep (as noted above), could be a vicious storm at some point in the next ten days. Out to 240 you know something is brewing but you don't know the where and when. 00Z GFS showing this nasty feature: Signs of some height rises in Greeny / Mid-Atlantic are few and far between but would be a welcome contrast. Hope the signals out beyond day 10 can solidify and verify over the next week or so. Edit: Indeed, the next shortwave rushing up the Jet at about 204 could be the "Daddy" for the next pattern change. I'm calling it the "where's your tool?" update.

Still great to come here and see SM putting out such a ballsy call (still 18 hours). Thank you for being my go to weather forum and all you lovely posters. Happy New Year.

Nasty. Go away.

If there's anything to strawclutch (I know you're not doing this mucka) the crazy warm winds tonight moving south to north. One would expect to pump up the Scandi High. This just isn't usual behaviour. There's something a bit alien about this.

It's not just the one run though, is it Mucka? Most runs across most models show devastating rainfall up out until way past 144. The pattern isn't going SE. It's bringing it across the country.

Not sure why folk south and west of Shetlands are still chasing the phantom easterly. All models seem to be backing away from this (barring a few pertubations) while showing a slightly rugby-shaped ball of low heights pushing through the UK. There are signs further down the line of pressure rising to the North backing Northwest which could bring something colder, but I'm not hedging any bets on long-term teleconnections, be they or be they not in conjunction with El Nino or MJO signals or whatever else. That the vortex (and associated colder air) will be pushed down to lower latitudes, yes I'm thinking it will. Pressure looks set to rise to some degree to our side of the pole and upstream aiding this, but, as usual, finding cold in this part of the world, inhibited as it is by latitude (especially those of us below 52 north - M4 corridor) and proximity to a large body of water (upstream) that has been constantly moderated by the AZ high to such a degree remains tentative. Mid-Atlantic ridge looking like a possibility later on and we're just starting to see it in the models but as we are now, the next couple of weeks only bring damp, wet, windy and further compound the problems of flooding in the NW. Last year it was the SW that bore the brunt and it's interesting to see how global weather patterns so influence us on the micro-scale when they become so repugnantly stagnant and relentless.

I am missing Data.