kumquat

How many times have we been in this position and see something completely different come T+0 Not gonna worry about it too much right now, but there's no need for Harrow boys to be in here winding us up

Haven't seen the old favourite Pembrokeshire Dangler mentioned yet?

Hey! Saw Iceberg around the Model thread. Could get cosy in here in the next couple of days.

Glad I'm not going to work on Friday. It'll probably be an icy, slushy mess.

When JH pulls out the guns - it's time to take notice.

That train of troughs following the 528 DAM line @120 could cause Knocker's mate to go into hibernation, at last.

The Hooker is in place but there are no props.

Absolutely ferocious in Newfoundland @ 192

Yep -6 to -8 850s clearing the south coast at T+126 Can't sniff at that.

Typical shortwave drama southern tip of Greenland, as per usual. Interesting to see how the 18z pans out.

Indeed, and I'm still intrigued that Fred's forecast brought us here. Major pattern change. Massive swing into SE by a potentially horrible mass of low pressure cold, sleet, hail and rain. Probably exactly what one would need to push out High Pressure in the south. I can't help but feel we have more chance of snow after 7 days and into the second half of winter.

It is all we've got, after all.

Euro 4 suggests (for example) 2 degrees dip in Holland over the next 48 hours (2 degrees under what is shown on GFS) 2 Meter temps Lower pressure further west into the Iberian peninsular (as compared to GFS) over the next 48 hrs by 100 to 200 miles. All of these trends are in our favour. I'm feeling positive. I know Euro 4 doesn't always pan out just like the NAE didn't but these small increments in our favour. I'll take them. This is higher res model. It's interesting to see how it compares to the rest.

Interesting and pertinent that the start of the evolution of the (current projected) cold output for the UK can be attributed to and tracked back to (on many of the recent model outputs) the High Pressure cell that grows from the Pacific East coast over the next couple of days. (John Holmes caught this first and made a little point about it) as far as I remember.

I'm pretty sure Mr Murr had this in his sights a couple of days ago.

Follow suit or Trump it

MIght as well mix the output up. GFS 18z showing cold - 144 coming back into the fold that was showing a few days ago. 850 temps coming through UKMO singing from same hymnsheet (144) What we see as the holy grail coming in from the ECM out at T240 (ECM 144 on same page as above) Everything to play for. Been here before but we have our fingers in all the model pies.

I have no idea what charts have been posted above ( ok, I can guess, but there's no dates, no times, nor no models on them when I expand them - this seems to be a recurring fixture, recently with cell phone posts?) Nevertheless, things are looking up cold wise. I won't post a chart as all of those posted above me show the cold coming in. Edit: my post coincided with Knocker's charts which did show the chart data!

That's a great triple vowel word for Countdown. I would soon get slapped down by the Dent.

No probs and I see what you are getting at in terms of other models not being inline with the GFS output.

seeable is a terrible word - why did I even say that?

If UKMO could go out further I would comment on it. We're out beyond 144 here. Yes on UKMO things get pulled towards Scandi.more, there is less cold coming west. After that I have no idea how to "comment" on it's output, other than guess work, that would be shot down more than what I am doing now, which is commenting on something seeable.

Did I even mention the UKMO? Edit (poss misunderstanding, I was replying to Crewecold's post)

Yep, scandi high on this run, but that drags the cold west better anyway. It's swings and roundabouts, but however you look at it, we're in a decent place.

Nothing to worry about. The 00z is looking fine.