kumquat

Not been able to view the models in any detail over the last couple of days because I've been enjoying myself too much at Center Parcs (longleat) serious windchill when Friday's little low ripped through. I was a little concerned at a quick flick-through yesterday that things were getting downgraded but a good sift through the 3 big guns and their ensembles (where available) have been a nice read this evening. Very optimistic still for a cold turn post Wednesday next week. UKMO @ 6 Days ECM @ 6 Days GFS (18z) @ 6 days - same timeframe - didn't see the 12z Encouraging to see the Scandi High rebuilding (possible retrogression to GH) even if it does appear to sink a little after its first incarnation. GFS 18z - 10 Days I've skimmed many a comment about cold and dry and the nuances between SE and Easterly airflow but HEY! This is so much better than the usual Zonal. We have a real chance here over the next few weeks of seeing something special, I'm reminded of Steve Murr's 3 cycles. Tonight's runs show we are in the game for all of them. We might fail the first hurdle but we're in for the next and the next. It's a good place to be for the snow-starved UK.

Thing is it puts it 9 days into the future. As many who watch this thread will attest to, there's nothing realistic out there.

You would hope so Crewe but (and I hate invoking it) Occam's razor says it will pass as it has in the past.

I think we're all in agreement (and so are the models) that we'll be sat in a col (anywhere from 96 - 144, depending on which model output you look at) It's a crossroads moment, literally. We'll go cold easterly (pretty nailed on, but snowy or long-lasted ? who knows) We'd all like there to be shorter term synoptics or upgrades that bring us the white nectar. (could definitely still happen. Even today there was possibility of sleety snow on the wraparound of the tight low that whipped through) In Center Parks Longleat so felt the chafing cold of that one with wet skin out of the warm water.) But more likely we're looking at a quick cold shot and further possibilities down the line. If any part of the UK gets a smashing snow event into next Thursday and the few days beyond, I'll be chuffed. Still the models put -10 and below 850s If they don't - then still don't despair. It could still be coming.

His profile says he was on the site 5 hours ago, so hopefully nothing amiss. (Possibly the thought of impending cold has kept him away? )

See you in 10 days

Armageddon from the North?

Interesting that the models think it's all East to West around Valentine's Day. I love you all.

18z takes WAA cross-polar flow. Less Scandi blocking and more Svalbard High. Could be some fun and games. We are all dreaming, after all.

One heck of a block looking to dominate to the East. The outcome for us could be anything. Wet, windy and mild. Cold, dry. Snowy. Who knows?

According to Wikipedia (so make of that as you will): "The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System" https://fim.noaa.gov/

Hey Zephyr Had a great view of Jupiter the other night with my Celestron SE4. Could make out coloured bands and the moons were bright. That was just using the 25mm Plossl eyepiece. Hope to get some more magnification for it soon. Happy stargazing! p.s I don't think the moon rises for us now until about 3am pps what is your 130p? A Skywatcher Dobsonian?

So nice to see the sun here for a couple of days and the last 2 nights have been awesome for astronomy. I need a dew shield for my scope! Freezing cold and sunny is fantastic in my book. Noticed the pond where I work is looking really low for this time of year. I've got a feeling something might be around the corner in terms of the white stuff over the next week. If you notice the "other" side of the NH is getting zonal. We are in the buckling belt. The thing is, it could go many ways. But we are still in the game.

You can't really equate the two as the energy distributions around the NH between those two times of year are like chalk and cheese.

Interesting to see how the seeds of a cold pool can be homegrown and fed when the warm uppers are cut off even over a land mass as small as ours. (OK it seeds over the southwest Atlantic - then heads towards the Scillies - fascinating energy feedback. Reverse flow jet out of NE France) An unpredictable sine wave pattern setting up exiting NE USA that could see random weather types crop up at short notice. I'd expect cold developments out of the blue from this over the next 5 days. Of course, it's GFS but it's originating in its back yard.

OK thanks, I get it now. You think that the models will start to show something (cold) more quickly than they are showing now. Like they hang on our words and hopes. Dash them and then rewrite their own algorithm to be more what we would like to see, at our chagrin? Or, basically, you think they will just change from the crud they are showing right now, to something better, because that's what you hope?

And your point is?

Running through the 18Z GFS the outlook looks chilly but dry. Next chance of snow (for our region) on this particular run doesn't look like manifesting itself until past 240 hours and out there, there's no point in looking. I'll take the dry away as a plus point, also some nice crisp sunny days (interspered with dredgy grey days) as the sun starts to climb higher and makes our daytime a little bit longer. If we get to anything like this (below) from the ECM at 10 days, then interest will start to peak again.

Some pixels off the radar got to me and there are great bid splodges on the patio......of RAIN The nearest weather station to me says Temp:2.4C and DP: 0.6 so be it. Sounds about right. Even 0.1 degree over Dew Point doesn't work around here unless it's gushing down. Martyn Hicks has run a good Station for years covering Filton, Bristol http://www.martynhicks.uk/weather/data.php

Hehe noggin 5:30 <-- what's that all about? More fool me that I missed the snow! This winter does feel different from the last few years, we're definitely in a better place for cold. Could be Feb before we see some action but at least it isn't all Atlantic rain.

Clouds just started covering the moon. There are only 47 pixel's worth of precipitation-bearing cloud left on the last 15 minute frame of the free radar that I use. I'm really clutching at straws here.

Hey noggin - nice to see you I had the day off today so, of course, I had a lie in after a silly night "on the watch" - which was fruitless. I did see that a flurry must have taken place when I got up. But I didn't see falling snow! Now, granted, I got up at 9:00am - that's probably taking liberties LOL. I had a great sleep, though!

Nice post. All I've ever learned from my years here, Met Monkey and the BBC Snowwatch days were never EVER promise snow to kids, loved ones or work colleagues. I guess I was lucky growing up in the '70s in East Anglia. Things just aren't the same anymore.

Wow it has a tiny bit of puff left in it. Please, just let me see one flake fall from the sky

I bet Pen-Y-Fan will suck the life out of it.