kumquat

As suspected, light rain here. Filton Weather courtesy - http://www.martynhicks.uk/weather/data.php Showing temp: 3.4C D.P. 2.3C Could take the point .4 off for elevation here in Winterbourne. Still another marginal event by a few degrees. Weatheronline's version of Euro4 showing 850s of -3 / -4 Wasn't ever really expecting anything, though last weekend models were showing the potential. We missed out by a few degrees again. Seems to be the way down here in the SW. I wonder if Mully (KN) has a few sleety flakes blowing around on his little hill? Potential for colder air aloft over the next few days and wouldn't rule out the odd flake if we can get any ppn into the mix.

There is hope yet. Even if we take March. Still wouldn't be surprised by a couple of cms in Bristol over the weekend. More to come before Easter Egg day. Cold is filtering in and we could fluke some Severn influence looking at the output

All of us who've been here a while know the masochism of chart chasing in UK winters. Just a sniff out at 240+ will do us. We can't help it. It's an addiction. It's what made this forum and the BBC before it. In the words of BSG "All this has happened before, and all of it will happen again." The best stuff is only a day away. Surprise surprise.... Battle line drawn...Front approaching the south west. Take your stands and READY!!!

Yes, but sometimes they do verify and that is The Chase.

Indeed, last Monday was showing snowy weather for the south coming tonight into tomorrow. This has been subsequently pushed back to Saturday, then Sunday and now we are chasing snow-bows into the middle of next week. Like a few have said, I'll believe it when I see it. Latest 12Z gfs shows snowy ppn (IMBY) for 07:00 tomorrow morning - albeit light. Let's see what the reality brings. I'd give my right eye just to see a few flakes floating on the breeze!!

Just hope the models are underplaying the upper air temps with these better synoptics that are showing up later in the forecast period. There's just no cold anywhere near us to tap into. ECM gives -6 to -8 850s into Scotland at day 9 and then that dissipates into mild again. Was pleasantly warm on a lunchtime walk today and I was thinking ahead to summer. Very springlike, it was. I'll get battered down at Longleat Centre Parcs with wind and rain this weekend, no doubt, but difficult to see this winter turning around to anything cold at this stage.

Better ECM tonight at 168 and 192, but we're still looking for scraps down south. Definite improvement (if you like cold!) in 850 temps at that (FI) range.

I'm seeing the greatest spread fanning out at T+120 after the crazy snow shenanigans in the USA. That system embeds itself into the vortex and wings its way over here like it has something to say. I'm not so sure that feature is being modelled very well.

Not such a bad place to be. 1st of February. Displacement of vortex out of its usual home: 18Z GFS ECM at same timeframe singing the same tune (or, at least, trying to get there) In both scenarios, downforce of cold air from the pole with a cake-slice swathe of high pressure swinging around the globe and pressing, pressing to our locality. Just about the right timing to force cold air into Europe and then swing it back with reverse zonal flow as heights cut in above.

IT'S NOWING IN BRISTOL Oh well. On to February We all know what follows this......Right.......

Just cos you've had minus 100 or whatever in Scandi doesn't mean you have to drag the rest of us down with your pessimism, Mully

Holly Green Twitter:

Precipitation seems well ahead of the latest modelling. Well into north Wales and staying further west than progged. Very much a nowcast situation and radar watch, although I fear marginality will creep in for our neck of the woods unless you are somewhere high up like Mullender's little hill.

Other parameters not conducive for snow when the ppn does arrive: ppn at 9pm Does look further North and East, agreeing with Fergie's tweets. 850s down to -2 for most of area once it arrives: Dew points anywhere from +1 to +5 Good job I'm going for a curry tonight. I'll be able to create my own micro-climate. And it won't be cool!

Most models seem miles off vs reality even as close in as T+12 so I'll not be putting much stock in their ppn charts. Seems to me the precipitation is much further East and South than projected: NMM 0Z for 9am: Euro 4 for midday: (closer to reality) We have a yellow weather warning at the Met Office for primarily ice but also the possibility of snow down to the south coast today, so lets hope for just a few flakes of the white nectar.

-0.2c here next to the sub-tropical and balmy River Frome. Beautiful morning out there.

In retaliation for an unseasonal shot across the bows from Hurricane Alex, the Vortex drops a Bomb on The Canaries.

Snow is falling All around me Radar Playing Having Fun?

Interesting wedge of High Pressure in the GIN at 144:

Was great to see those kids who joint-discovered that pulsar (on Stargazing Live) and were so enthralled and happy to be part of a scientific discovery. And they wanted to name it after their Guinea Pig!! Brilliant.

Cold rain in Winterbourne. Dew point up to 1C. Need heavier ppn to get anything out of this.

Yes it's been too long. Might have to join Legritter in a couple of Stellas Made me giggle the other day when he cracked open the Stellas at midday! ("Only a half for me!!")

I know, I know - but it's so addictive!!

Few streamers forming up Anglesey way. Let's hope they can pep up and get over those Welsh Mountains..

ppl getting an earlier night in preparation for the lamp-post watching to come?