Paceyboy

I concur that MO update is very encouraging. Gfs is nothing like the conditions they expect all out to 18th jan.

I like watching the development of eaterlies. We do not want to see the perfect easterly modelled at that range as it would just lead to disappointment on here (somebody on this forum said this but not sure who so I wont guess and take the credit from the person if I am wrong) The interest in this evolution lies in its development and over the years in these scenarios low pressure placement and strength of high pressure over scandivia/NNE of us is what determines the depth of cold. Put it this way there is alot more to this scandi high than was modelled two days ago already. Now that we are reaching timescales of 144-200h where it resides currently, it will either sink and we will know it will sink or it can upgrade and strengthen heights. Personally i cant really recall many instances, short time a decade - I know, when easterlies were just restricted to Scotland. On many if not most occasions everything moves south closer to the time, obviously we do not want this to the extreme as the high will sink. If the cold hits us it could only be a 3 day event, currently shown on more favourable runs but the interest lies in potential upgrades or more of a drawn out battleground instead of short sharp cold snap that is over and will set us back another week until another chance arises.

No update to any warnings regarding snow which is amazing considering most of the high res models give accumulations of between 2 - 6 inches for east Wales, central midlands and south/south east midlands by 0600 weds. My elevation is not great, around 80metres here on south staffs/warwickshire border however you would expect bbc and met office to show more than 2 hours of sleet given the models!!

12z ICON - west/central midlands light snow intensifying after 9pm lasting till rush hour tomorrow morning. Sorry on phone cant post pic.

I love snow and cold to a point but thats extreme for central midlands. Monday will be horrendous.

Whats happening on the NMM? It shows a -9c monday morning? -3c max for some places. Is that really possible after a slightly marginal event?

Pessimistic models in the morning as always. I can literally only remember a handful of times over years when they actually showed something better for cold than the night before. They still show decent cold spells but last night were showing a potential prolonged period or even freeze. Background signals seem to be somewhat on our side anyway!

Extremely eventful last night, well done to all those who had storms. The modelling showed we were odds on to see something here on the edge of West Midlands but like with all weather- we never see any! Hopefully we will be in with a chance this afternoon with some high CAPE and good lifted index!

At least this mornings ECM doesnt agree with the GFS trapped low Wednesday to Sunday.!

I was just ranting to my wife about our climate. You couldnt make it up considering where we looked to be heading. Unfortunately all models have picked up on a decline in conditions wednesday onwards. Although this mornings are even worse, the dreaded trapped summer low. I used to welcome plumes but i would take 22c with sunny spells for the next 2 weeks if it was offered now. Cloudy in my location today and predicted all weekend, poor, really.

I can see that cloud to my north west from Tamworth so looking towards your location. I said to my wife thats showing the instability around. She disappointed that we are not currently looking at cooling storms!

Perhaps coldies should take a break and maybe view the models again Friday morning, seeing as we shall most likely be in a period of milder weather for at least 4 or 5 days (also projection-wise) Positives to be had by saving on heating bills, I wont complain. 10-12c in the day looking likely in south UK midweek onwards. Wouldn't it be amazing to have an early March potent easterly with sub -10c uppers and low thickenesses, the power of the sun, the contrast between North Sea SST and a deep cold pool aloft. It would be fanstastic to see some proper convection. Its not over until mid March for me personally.

FI still at 144hrs. I feel we are coming out of that mist at day 7-8 where retrogression will now feature more on the models due to MJO etc. I am still very encouraged. I reckon someone (South UK included) will see decent snow this weekend!

Crikey I would take the money right now and bank the 6z GFS. Snow chances for most from this Wednesday to the end of the run, absolutely no milder days there away from the extremities

The ECM is not a concern for me. Contrary to its reputation it's actually been very unreliable. Like the most overrated football player. Actually we shouldn't give it so much weight after 120h. As others have said as long as UKMO is interested then we can feel a bit more confident. Hope to see upgrades from now on as we are approaching the most important time where things can go wrong, in this case as blue army said 3 days out

Noticeably more interesting Northern Hemisphere charts appearing. This is what we have been lacking recently. We have been hoping for a cold spell relying solely on the jet playing ball rather than having the building blocks in place that would ensure a less risky route to cold, longer too. P8 = LOADED

I know everyone has model fatigue but just a glimpse of sudden height rises around Norway at t72 on latest gfs? Possible? Probably gone next run! Sorry on phone so can't post chart.

GEFS pointless after 144hrs IDO. Any trend in the high resolution is forgotten when into low resolution. Each run has kept a continental influence longer over the 48 hours, ECM and GFS. Shame there isn't a weather cash-out option when the ensembles flip to cold. Each GEFS is here and gone in a flash prediction wise, more so in winter time.

Looking at the ECM 00 run is there the chance of a Scandinavian high forming in the window at 120h? Given the propensity for an uncertain medium term i wonder if something like this could occur. Also current cold over Europe and Scandinavia considered. Sorry can't post chart as on my phone.

I reckon im on for a direct hit or 50% hit here. Everything looks to be moving NNE or NE. Thats a monster just south of Stratford Upon Avon

Those rainfall rates are pretty severe in south central england. Worse ive seen for a while to be honest. Maximum cape not forecast till around 6/7pm also.

According to the models, anywhere south east of line from the Bristol channel to the Humber should be seeing mid to high 20s tomorrow even with varying cloud cover. Can anyone tell me why the BBC and MO are so stoic with highs of only 20-23c across the Midlands tomorrow? I'm not sure I agree!!! I lost my mind there and forgot for a second that weather that is happening outside the south east isn't worth the time for the media. Sorry, brain working properly now :-)

Seems 00z GFS and its ensembles keen to keep the 15c 850 temps well into the Midlands until Thursday evening. Renewed push for a day or two on the weekend for some more heat starting to appear. UKMO looks similar but obviously we can't see 850s. ECM not loving the heat that much.

After yesterday's runs, GFS is like the morning after a great evening and night out. A hangover and the idea it was a good night but not much more to go forward! UKMO not bad! ECM prone to fail with that precarious flash of heat.

I think partly its disappointment taking over but ECM and GFS agree. Time after time we all hope UKMO is correct and to some degree ECM but the GFS seems to have a slight edge with this scenario (i.e. the one where we all hope the GFS is too progressive). I will focus on February or even end of January for a better shot at longer lasting cold and snow oppurtunities.