Paceyboy

On the face of it the 12z GFS ensembles dont look all that inspiring. However, after looking through the ensemble charts, there is a tendency for the strengthening of the Greenland high in the medium term and hence this pushes that azores high further south and allows blocking to enter the north atlantic in the low res frames. Just a trend to keep an eye on here, nothing too exciting for cold but just shows that the ensemble graph doesnt tell the whole story. A few easterlies and northeasterlies thrown in too.

Thats right yes. GFS 12z vastly different to its 06z Although it forms a pretty strong greenland high, it looks to disappear far too quickly to me, but this is the low res part of the run. I feel some more 'tweaking' and it will begin to mirror the ECM more.

Yes they are poles apart Nick. Too much uncertainty!

Yh the low near portugal is 100miles further northeast than the 06z. And its only t87

http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html GFS seems to 'off on one' when one considers how long it showed a strong negative AO until today! SIGNIFICANT upstream uncertainty here, even though there may be agreement to 144hrs, events in the arctic are always changing run to run i.e small changes= large changes/uncertainty for our part of the North Atlantic.

UKMO 12z looks quite decent, centre of the low following the south coastline. Anybody there??

Could this be our low pressure centre? http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ go to pressure If it is then much further north, can anyone with more knowledge tell me please? Edit: Sorry its probably not looking at current rainfall radars.

The cradle isobars of the storm, 996mb and 1000mb(especially 1000mb isobar, the southern cradle isobar) are slightly further north than the earlier GFS as current observations show on http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations (click pressure) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= (move to 09hrs on pressure) When compared to the GFS 06z positioning. I know this is only what 20/30miles further north at present but this difference could make have a an affect later on for the storm track and how much precipitation we get later today and friday in the midlands. Who knows, might not really matter?

You will want WETTERZENTRALE OR METEOCIEL on wetter you need to go topkarten then kartenarchiv not sure about meteociel but historic charts are on there somewhere!

Yes not a good forecast at all for proper cold. Although as they forecast an abundance of high pressure over western europe, its all about its placement! As you say RD, yes they probably think bartlett or a midler high position, but its still quite way out to make a forecast(mid october) for this winter and if the high pressure orientates itself differently from their thinking, we could see a very different winter from what they suggest. The forecast in general doesnt state mild throughout to me but just a normal to slightly above winter. Personally i think they are playing it safe. Developments in the next few weeks could change all these thoughts though.

27.8c here at 13:13 Just incredible, other stations around me are reading similar such as Nottingham other East Mids locations

So then, according to this link: http://meteora.ucsd....o/pictures.html we are in for near neutral ENSO conditions, with a weak La Nina looking likely. Perhaps this is good news for a cold winter? Why is the CFS predicting a La Nina of -1 or stronger, are the members of this forum in current belief that this is unlikely and the CFS is going OTT with a moderate La Nina? The build up to this winter season and through the summer so far shows neutral ENSO conditions, when this time last year we were already in La Nina territory (weak, trending moderate). The lag time effect of which turned January 2011 average and Feb 2011 above average temp wise. Navigate to bottom of chart to read 2010 ENSO values : http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml People believe that this was the reason for out severe 'short winter' which really came at the end of november to Christmas then faded away, rather than extending through the rest of the months. With conditions neutral at present, unlike La Nina conditions this time last year, and the forecast for the continuation of near-neutral enso conditions until at least late Dec 11/early Jan 12, this can only be good news for cold in my opinion.

Surely July cant be any worse, theres got to be a sunnier one in prospect soon Yes last July was warm, however it was awfully cloudy and was followed by a terribly wet August. If it was drier and average temperature-wise, it would probably be better than least year, purely on sunshine amounts and more dry days in the traditional part of the summer. I would have thought that with neutral ENSO conditions, there would be less of a bias towards a 'particular summer weather type' prevailing and more likely a bit of everything. A changeable Summer, each month having a bit of everything. However i think it may be similar to last summer with the BEST weather MORE LIKELY in early summer. Reason being we have been in a dry period from mid autumn 2010 till now and that may come to an end by the end of June for example.

Whilst I tend to agree with you in the whole 'jumping to conclusions too quickly ' madness and others most probably do also, it doesnt hurt to analyse and discuss. Why dont we just take every scientific theory for granted and not discuss. I mean why are we even discussing weather on this forum because we always know what thats going to do and what can and ultimately CANT happen. Lets get rid of weather forums altogether! I think not. Im obviously being sarcastic. This new emerging find or speculation all maybe OTT but its interesting all the same. If you feel completely comfortable with everything meteorological thats fine, apparently you can predict the future and dismiss every theory that challenges present goings-on.

This is todays 200m depth gulf stream velocity. http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest Now we were saying hmmmm, theres not much change in the velocity of this depth or its alot quicker than surface and more consistent etc. Has anyone actually noticed, ive just noticed, that the red colours are only 1m/s velocity. The key is different to speed of surface flow(or 0m on the options which is what weve been looking at and quoting the last month) So thats slow too? What do others think?

Yes I think so. The Jetstream would flatten out and always remain further south than us. We would then be in our own zone where we get alot more continental influence. Theoretically the end of mild SWly's in winter perhaps.

So in essence narrowing the temperate 'comfort' climatic zones. It is this idea that would theoretically create a larger ice cap(greater arctic region). If the North Atlantic Drift or GS has infact weakened it is quite worrying. However i dont think I quite believe it just yet. Not enough scientific agreement across the board imo. But that could be due to not knowing time frames, general behaviour or cycles of the current over great timespans. I believe we only have a couple of centuries data on any ocean currents, if that?? All in all quite interesting.

Its hardly the area i described in my earlier post then is it But yes it sounded great in the Peak District just a shame I could never get up there to see it. 6 months after passing my driving test, I WASNT ALLOWED TO DRIVE UP THERE!

What dates did you visit roughly? Where did you visit? That response is too general and is implying the vast majority of the West Midlands had a foot of snow lying and for a considerable amount of time. Were you visiting Sedgley? On top of Barr Beacon? Or classing say somewhere in South Cheshire as the West Midlands? If you had been where I live last winter, you would have felt hard done by

Just a quick review of last winter and thoughts on the upcoming winter. The whole country appeared to 'rave' about the snow last winter and quite rightly so in many areas. If it hasn't been mentioned already, the West Midlands, South Staffordshire/NorthWarwickshire and Derby/Nottingham Areas on the contrary had very little snow compared to many areas of the country. It really wasn't memorable at all where I live in particular, i think the greatest snow accumulation I saw was at a push 4 inches. Granted, it lay for days on end due to the freezing temperatures however I only recored about 3 or 4 ice days also. Others in my area could argue about my snow memories and say that they had 'loads' but that would most likely be due to small topographic advantages(higher land elevation) in the local area (eg. Sedgley, Dudley, Cannock and perhaps Nuneaton-Hinckley area, precise locations that are always favoured). I havent witnessed many exceptional snow events but the cold from this winter passed didnt seem to be justified by the amount of snow received and what others had in comparison. I may sound a little whiney but I think this area could have done a lot better last winter and that is why I look forward to this winter to hoepfully deliver a little more. My lowest temperature was-9C last winter but thats quite a relief as all the tropical/mediterranean plants in my garden could have died if it was any colder! This upcoming winter seems to have some apparent recipes already for another below average turnout. Jetstream on holiday south, -NAO(for 9months in a row now i believe), blocking developing-notable scandi/siberian and notable Greenland highs and slight slowing of the gulf stream perhaps. I have read a number of things about this, including the ideas of Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, an Italian theoretical physicist, although i still feel more evidence needs to be presented and more agreement worldwide from other Meteorologists/Oceanographers/Physicists. Alot of people on various forums dismiss this general development and findings but i do feel this talk of the coldest winter in a 1000 years in Russia is a little foolish and greatly exaggerated. That is basically announcing the beginning of an ice age and in my eyes, is over the top to say the least. It takes a long time for events or occurrences to filter through into the global climate and system, if at all. We will wait and see. All in all im looking forward to the winter and the developments nearer the time. Exciting times ahead.

27.0c here also, 59% humidity.

No 12z UKMO either?

That is only the 0z GFS op run and i emphasise the fact that both UKMO and ECM look much better on their 0z runs compared to a few days ago with regards to high pressure hanging on longer and even real heat on the ECM . UKMO the pick of the bunch though.

We have palms in our garden and yes the potential warm/humid type of weather would be great, hopefully notable growth spurts, they are already growing a good 8 inches taller every year with plant food

Some small flakes now coming down within the sleet.