Paceyboy

You and me both mate. The topography of our area is to blame (and sod's law of course)

14:11 is the time as I post! And people are writing the event off. I never saw anyone forecast the main event now or even significant snow this early on!

Extremely light sleet here or slizzle Temp is 3.6c but has dropped to that from 4.1c at 1300. My garden is a sort of microclimate anyway so my weather station has always probably been on the warm side of reality! METO 1300 Radar update shows a larger swing northwards in the precipitation.

I am disappointed by two things this evening: 1. Obviously the sudden change in the tone of the ECM op run and its agreement with the horrendous mild run of the UKMO. 2. Many members coming out of the woodwork to immediately jump on the mild bandwagon as soon as there is an ounce of agreement and (in some cases) mocking undertones are not good either and are very childish. Many members have thrown in the towel with regards to cold to add to this, but we have to remember factors such as the intense deep cold over cont europe which will not be displaced very easily as some other members have explained. Another thing is that the outputs have been in favour of either a cold or very cold continental flow for days including the ongoing current ensemble support. Ive lost count of the amazing cold runs shown over the past week and to suddenly dismiss all of this in light of the new runs this afternoon is surely madness! The sudden change is not very welcome with me too but a cold outlook is still not out of the question in my view.

POTENTIALLY a very exciting period coming up. I believe that a continental flow will occur in the next few days following the current northerly. The UKMO model is causing some worry and to me it is a potential speedbump in the evolution as a whole. I still think that what it shows now would not be disaster, perhaps a more delayed development to a cold/very cold continental flow. I just hope tomorrow morning it starts to agree with the others models between the 120-144hrs time range just to provide a little bit more comfort to us model watchers! I heard 1:20 rain/snow ratio being mentioned by legendary Mr Murr, however i thought that the maximum was a 1:10 ratio?

JMA 12z is a fantastic run for cold. An easterly at first then a quick change to a northerly through thurs/fri with heights building over Greenland. The JMA has been consistently churning out very cold runs in the last few days...

Yes im a bit more optimistic now, however is that due to high ground?

Sorry more northerly i should have thought

The channel is where our ppn will probably come from as the whole band is moving N/NE....

The amount of pessimistic posts on here are making my eyes sore! I think we should at least get a covering in most of the midlands region, probably Leicester westwards in the main i should think. The precipitation is dying yes but look to the south, that is where our precipitation will come from(and probably decay lol) But yes, dont write this off completely its only 17:30 and the band is in spitting distance of Hereford!

This current development is very interesting, a trough no? I wonder if its possible that when it reaches here it will carry on all eve? Look at the train of snow behind the southern blob, all the way to york area! And also the wind is veering ENE! Good news! (well should be)

-3.3c here currently

Is that massive stream of showers just to the north of Newcastle going to die as soon as it leaves the pennines as it moves south? Will it get even as far as south as the peak district?

We could easily get as much as 10cm in the satnight/sunday snow event somewhre here in the midlands. However, the east and south east may see 15cm+ ! Im travelling back to uni in Norwich on sunday and im sitting here thinking will the journey be a waste of time( road disruption) it could potentially be a nightmare! And plus, the east is likely to have snow showers from tomorrow and through the first part of the weekend also!

HOW CAN THE PPN JUST SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM VANISH WITHIN 5 MINUTES! I hope its just a radar malfunction lol! Anyway i have between 1 and 2 inches cover here in Whittington, nr Lichfield

The area of PPN to the north and west of brum has pepped up and is now showing moderate snow, I believe this was merely 'snizzle about an hour ago! Encouraging!

Tell me about it, Whittington's has aswell! I think we should move out of the Trent Valley....

Perfect conditions for heavy, settling snow. I live just NE of Brum nr Lichfield and we have only caught the edge of the band and have a good cm on the ground. It must be quuite bad JUST south of here(extremely annoying) Shropshire/Hereford/Worcester must be getting a pasting

Why is the temperature so darn high with -6C uppers, 5.0c here in whittington! Netweather radar shows snow just north of me so im not sure? Dewpoints are decent according to that radar at around -2C to 0C.

12z ecm shows plenty of precipiation around Central Wales and Midlands(as far north as Manchester) from about 0600 tues to about 0600weds and coupled with this, cold with 850hpa temps conducive to snow, around min -3c to generally -4/-5/-6 over the midlands, wales and NW england. http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=prec This is an upgrade on the 00z ecm output, esp for northern extent of precip!

Yes, for a start thats a lot of rainfall! If that was to be snow then you would probably have something between 1-2foot of snow by dawn on Wednesday! However, a word of caution, IF it is cold enough for snow, then i cant see that we would get that much precipiation here in the midlands as the colder air would keep the more intense precip further south. I would bet though, that the midlands and most of Wales would see between 3-6" depths.

Sorry Chris that is a terrible mistake to make, yes i meant south east winds. That was so bad from a prospective met and oceans student!!!

If one looks at air pressure on the netweather radar, the 988mb isobar over Birmingham indicates NW winds surely pushing the band slightly nearer?

AZORES, what is your exact location? Im in Whittington, SE of Lichfield.

Temperature has dropped 1 degree here since about 12.30 from 1.6C to 0.6C. In the last 10 mins it has dropped from 0.9 to 0.6C, quite rapidly. Now i can see the high cloud on the edge of the system to the south, will it make it to here? Not so sure? And, a dew point of 0.3C, that seems very marginal to me but i suspect it should drop as we go through the next few hours