Paceyboy

The model output is certainly clear for next week. A return of atlantic weather. We are too close for this to change back to cold. Again, we may have to play yet another wating game, which is incredibly fustrating. Hopefully there will be some snowfall Monday/Tuesday but dont be expecting it. In the meantime, the Cheshire Gap shower maker is firing up now so those in Wales and the Midlands could focus on this for now and pray for a turn around for 4-5 days away.

.Simply not true I'm afraid, ALL parameters are condusive to snow in our area from now onwards especially tonight!

Personally I think this run is better in the long run and for longevity of 'opportunity'. The high maybe further north but it is not sinking and cold is building and building over northern Europe. EDIT: Look at the low heights in the central northern med at T180 on this run, 8mb lower pressure than the 00z for the same time! Fantastic!

Maximum Wind Gust Competition: My punt: Beachy Head =87mph

The most intense rainfall is almost certainly a west midlands event on that chart azores! An area within Gloucester to Stoke to Notts to Coventry to evesham back to gloucester It better be thundery!

NMM 18z for 2300 Saturday. One word INTENSE. Thundery perhaps? Spawned from an area with astronomical cape supported by encourgaing conditions such as helicity and shear?

28.4C here, 55% humidity. A few cumulus drifting around. Just as hot as yesterday here if not a little further ahead.

28.4C here, 55% humidity. A few cumulus drifting around. Just as hot as yesterday here if not a little further ahead.

SHEDHEAD- That is a chart to suit your agenda! It seems you have used the snapshot of the minimum temps not the max temps that day The max temp chart (the one I always see quoted on here) shows 26-28C from London to Manchester southwestwards!

Are we that certain that it will be 'cooler' in our region midweek? To me the BBC and met office's temperatures for weds and thurs are too low? Come on 24c as the max temp, with 850hpas no less than todays values (~11C) and a very weak flow off the north sea is there really gonna be that much cloud cover over our region? These conservative temperature forecasts are starting to irritate me because as far as I am concerned there is a massive difference between 24C and 28C! There also seems a noteworthy eastern bias skewing the headlines to these midweek cool phase BBC forecasts- 27/28C isnt 'cooler' and thats what I believe with sunny spells would be the maxes in WM this midweek.

Finally started to stick to the last remaining surface type- asphalt road. Here in Tamworth im at approx 65metres asl

Always the same here with disappointment. We are both on naff low ground! However, it does seem to be a warmer local spot in the summer (whats summer? lol) Yep,, low in Tamworth aswell Potent Gust :-( Flakes have got bigger ever since i started moaning!

Im sick of where I live. Intensity is lost everytime something hits, its enraging!

My interpretation is that over the next 24-36hours an area within a perimeter from Ross-on-Wye to Sheffield to Leciester to Worcester will see between 25-50mm accum precip. The current radar looks a smidge further east of this area and therefore could be corrected a few miles east or west fro the real outcome. You would think that somehwere within this sliver will possibly get 8-10inches snow accumualtion on ground that is not especially elevated!

Is this a joke Gimmesomesnow? If we were going to see corrections southwards that would ultimately lead us to a dry day the low would already be projected over north France. The issue is it- rain to snow, all rain, all snow? Also the 120h chart on UKMO has -14c uppers! Ive got a conversion chart saved on my comp to convert thicknesses and air pressure to 850hpa temps.

Yep you were correct, spot on in fact for most of us. I posted yesterday that the all models except the GFS had marginal but favourable parameters for snow. In this situation they were wrong because south of a line from Telford to Leicester, dewpoints turned unfavourable and the instance of freezing rain suggest to me that the 850hpas rose above 0c when they forecast to stay just below for most of the west midlands. Cant complain though here in Lichfield/Tamworth there has been the most snow I have seen in at least 10 years if not 15years over the last 2weeks!

they should, i think what has happened is maybe the uppers are slightly above 0 and the 2metre temps are too high. From whati can see, dewpoints are the right side of marginal ?

What gets me though it that the met office wont admit wrong doing in the warning for us in lowland northcentralwestmidlands> they have an insidious agenda whereby they gradually introduce the sleet symbol on their website!

Just looked on NAE and it seems that the heavy precip most of are missing isnt anything to worry about. We have to look southwest, NAE suggest that 9PM onwards is our time>

Cant believe our luck staffordshire> still waiting to see HEAVY SNOW, so fustrating!

Look to Ireland now, its been mentioned a few times that this is merely a fragmented band to start!

Some people really need to look at the model forecasts before downgrades /pessimism etc. First band was expected to break up and will be reinforced later this afternoon and will rapidly intensify as it hits us. You only have to look at the intensity of the precip over Ireland at this moment. Ok, a quick checklist of models and outputs and precip accumulation amounts (mm) (multiply by roughly 8-10 for your snow amount in cm) > GFS much more keen on a snow event than yesterday, 850hpa temps not great but no higher than 0c, except for say west of a line telford to worcester (10-15mm) >NAE pushes the snowline further south west, so those in herefordshire and worcestershire have a greater chance. Also keeps it as snow the whole way through for central WM northeastwards. Dews no higher than 0 for 90% of the region. 00z = 8-12mm, 06z = 10-20mm > UKMO better than yday with regards to 850temps. (10-15mm) > ECMWF the pace setter with the best 850 temps and intense precip (~15mm) > NMM simliar to GFS (both american i believe) but intense snow at some stage for us all. turning to rain west of Birmingham well hard to read into on meteociel (dont subsrcibe to netweather extra) but with gfs and nmm having same data feed they apparently overdo dew points according to snowking aka Kris Surtees (over on three counties discussion). In summary, I would guess that the amber warning *COULD* be extended but not certain. I would say more likely snow all the way through east of Brimingham. Turning to sleet west of wolverhampton - evesham late evening/midnight. Its going to be excited some people should see some large temporary totals before the big thaw sets in saturday/night!

In Tamworth at the moment it is still coming down persistent light/moderate fall. Roughly 10cm on the ground, can see some drifts on rooftops! very unusual never seen anything like this before as im a mere 21 yrs of age. Long may it continue but hope transport isnt too badly affected!

I noticed that too Ian. The met office do mention the possibility of flurries overnight (tho mostly dry) in their text forecast, perhaps this is what they are referring to? Also, NAE suggest light snow for the west mids tomorrow from this area in the irish sea, that is currently ahead of timing and further east, perhaps we will have a bonus light snow event before the main course friday?

Oh my god this moaning is ridiculous!! Come on conor and The Wolf, the forecast is for light snow ALL NIGHT. And then by day theres the other band, marginal yes but I think we will be just the right side of marginal!