Paceyboy

Just popped onto this thread and it seems people dont seem to be able to think about the evolutions of this situation!! So negative. I reckon tomorrow will be a surprise despite the dew point forecast, everybody NE of Malvern area should be ok! sod the wet bulb, think uppers

Some of the GFS 12z ensembles seem to exhibit a similar evolution shown at 144h on 12z UKMO. This is encouraging so hopefully an even better 18z run this evening from the GFS with a better jet tilt -

For some saying that 96h on UKMo was the same as 96h on GFS. Yes they were similar but noticeable diffs at such close range. I.e UKMO has the low shallower dropping more south, whilst GFS is much deeper and reluctant to drop it south as much!

Yes Chris. Some cold surface temperatures are showing as the rain and warmer uppers come in Friday morning. Freezing rain could be a possibility in some places.

Although snow chances for most of us are now redundant on thursday, the UKMO 12z ,between 36hrs and 60hrs really shows the power of the block and the associated cold to the east as the atlantic low pressure moves against it http://www.meteociel...ch=6&carte=1021 This is also shown on the GME 12z in the same timeframe, trough disruption apparent there http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

Again, if anyone has noticed, the GFS is edging everything south or south/sotuh west with every run, now continuing on the 12z. Litterally just 30-50miles each time. Just shows the stoic nature of the cold dense air over the continent! Lovely!

GFS 06z has better blocking over the arctic around 144 compared to the 00z run. I really dont think its worth looking past 120hrs at the moment. The position of the greenland low pressure and the north europe trough are constantly being revised south Good trends and quite possibly good times!

To echo the voices of Crewe Cold et al about caution. Level headedness is crucial but as always the output will change , I suspect upgrades on arrival and depth of cold and also longevity as we get nearer. Please dont jump on more experienced members' backs who are urging caution, after all they are the ones that keep the synergy of knowledge and realism ticking in this thread whilst also supporting some excitement!

Same here Chris, I have recorded a max of 28.9C. Quite impressed. Met office cloud forecast on tv this morning was fairly useless it was unbroken sunshine from about 10.30 - 1600 here. Currently a humid 28.5C with convective cumulus.

27.8C / 60% humidity. Almost wall to wall sunshine here, the odd whispy cirrus. Barely a breeze also, micro-climate garden but sensor is next to pond and shaded. Very nice but a little uncomfortable.

If one runs the NMM through (as far as it is out for the new update) the precipitation to me shows multi-cellular characteristics moving into the SE during the early hours. This is also coupled with some decent mid-level CAPE of around 1500 j/kg even by 3am! ttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

Winds have picked up here from virtually calm. Dark skies and occasional moderate rain. No thunder to report though.

First sferics appearing on the cell between Ludlow and Bewdley heading NE.

Ive got a reading of 27.6c here near Lichfield. I am quite low lying compared with other areas around me. Its probably a slightly higher reading due to my garden microclimate although the sensor is positioned on a shaded bird table next to the pond and lawn. The Coleshill official met office station is a strange one reading 23.7c. However, it is quite exposed and on a considerable hill, personally i dont think its a very good location for the met office to position one of their stations, given the general low-lying topographic characteristics of the east Birmingham area. The Coleshill reading is bull IMO because after nearly 10 years of weather interest it feels to me that its at least 25c around here if not higher (and my judgement taking into account high humidity).

Ive got a reading of 27.6c here near Lichfield. I am quite low lying compared with other areas around me. Its probably a slightly higher reading due to my garden microclimate although the sensor is positioned on a shaded bird table next to the pond and lawn. The Coleshill official met office station is a strange one reading 23.7c. However, it is quite exposed and on a considerable hill, personally i dont think its a very good location for the met office to position one of their stations, given the general low-lying topographic characteristics of the east Birmingham area. The Coleshill reading is bull IMO because after nearly 10 years of weather interest it feels to me that its at least 25c around here if not higher (and my judgement taking into account high humidity).

I hate where we live for weather. We always seem to be so unlucky with snow and thunderstorms, year in year out. Watch this summer give 30C + in London and the east and watch the boundary with thunderstorms be east of Leicester and southeast of Northampton. Im thinking of moving/trying to move to Canada eventually (mostly weather reasons). It drives me mad how any event gets downgraded to absolutely nothing, or as now the prime target the night before last is now a DAMP SQUIB with gusty winds just making the day extremely depressing and raw- pointless. We would be lucky to get snow in April but after the crap winter we have had it looked like we were in for a chance of something significant, I look forward to daytime average maxes of 0- minus 5 in winter and 26/27c in summer. AND SOME INTERESTING WEATHER!

I have noticed that some other models are stalling this band of precipitation also, if its mostly all snow there could be accumulations early hours - midday of wednesday, i know its april but the temperatures projected are around 1/2c in the early hours of weds, only rising to 3 or 4c during the daytime weds in this scenario. Could be an interesting event if it all goes the way of the GFS and NAE. Dewpoints favourable early hours onwards, along with thicknesses and uppers of -4c dropping to -7c.

Would love to but have to drive late this afternoon aswell only a short distance to the missus but i dont want to get stuck in my car on the A38 miles from home!

I cant believe the radar, what can we believe at this current moment? Im really fretting because ive got to drive to derby at 1 and come back at 4 and dont want to get stuck in freezing/rain or snow. Really dont know what to do! Should i risk it?

Have a dewpoint of -7.8c here, air temp -0.5c. Half a cm of snow accumulation so far.

I love how this thread has turned into the Pennines/East England/SE thread and not including the midlands judging by the snow accumulation charts put up here. I already have half a cm lying and people to my west have 1-2inches.

Looking at the radar, does anyone else think this is beginning to stall?? Theres a piece of heavier precip over East Wales/West Shropshire and it hasnt moved much further east for a good half hour. AJ, Phil n Warks? Any suggestions?

Snow grains here near Lichfield. Radders: The precip is only light at the moment and will be that was for a bit yet. Dont get too disappointed mate, the event has even started yet! Its a very slow passage of the front and things will get interesting later!

Anybody seen the enlarged met office amber warning area? Looks like a huge u know what! lol

Yes it would be a lot better. That would lead to a chance of this event being an all snow event for the West Midlands to the Welsh border in addition to those further east. Wales has much higher ground anyway and so does Shropshire so perhaps those folk out there will do well anyway.