johnny1972

Couldn’t agree more ??

Very much overhyped I have felt. If we were experiencing the -12 to -15 uppers and sub zero day time temps with snow like we had in Dec 2010 then yes it may have been a record breaking spell to look back on. As it is it won’t be and given we are heading into March and the sun being stronger I don’t think this will be anything special at all.

The models are shifting each run. It prob won’t be known with any certainty until 12/24hrs beforehand.

I used that before but now use the net weather snow app or the weather pro app. Both seem very accurate

Couldn’t agree more but already shower activity pepping up off east coast and snowing lightly in Bangor. I think it will be mostly nowcasting re showers as if today is anything to go by when nothing was forecast then streamers may readily set up and produce a few surprises at very short notice. Has happened before. Currently 2.5c and dew point -5 and that’s on the coast before the coldest air even arrives so all good so far.

Don’t think it’s set in stone yet Neiller. Still precipitation charts showing heavy snow Thursday and Friday for NI. Fingers crossed

Sitting drinking my Starbucks in Bangor and there are a few light flurries in the wind. looking at the latest charts I think the low being shown to be slightly further south and east appears to keep us in the colder uppers for longer with the mild not reaching us. Doesn’t appear to rise higher than -6 850’s in NI. Still a good chance as well if a significant snow event thurs and fri with winds gusting 60mph mean speeds 35mph. It’s a wait and see.

Bit harsh in your assessment of what is a very sensible post and a very viable outcome. The models whether some like it or not are at the minute and have been for the last few days been showing less cold / milder conditions approach from fri / sat onwards. The models and yes even the UKMO introduce these conditions to particularly southern England. These are backed by the ensembles. Anyone thinking otherwise must have blinkers on if they can’t see the trend across the different models. We may have had a record breaking SSW but as the experts have said in the strat thread, it doesn’t always guarantee cold for us. We do get a blast for a few days yes and yes there will be snow. Will it be record breaking - imho no. The issue is the HLB drifts to the west to Greenland and on some runs further towards the eastern seaboard. The block need to set up shop over Scandy as it has done previously in many of the real cold spells that the UK as seen previously were it has on occasions remained for several weeks. There will be further tweaks north and south but imo the trend is there and the deep cold lasts no more than a few days.

What do u think about the longevity of this MS? Trend in the models and ensembles headed milder from Saturday onwards

Your right it will go onto the 2nd or 3rd of March. A whole 5 or 6 days ??

Ronan I wouldn’t worry too much about this spell tbh. You may think that is crazy looking at some of the charts but imho this will not be a long deep cold spell. One or 2 days tops at zero or below during the day. The NW has done well this year in what has been a colder winter than recent years but I think this spell incoming has been overhyped. It won’t touch December 2010 were even on the coast here we had snow on the ground for 4 weeks and temps well below freezing even by day. I remember the Lagan near cutters wharf in Belfast upto Ormeau Bridge freezing over. That will not happen this time. Yes there may be places get a lot of snow. Yes we may have -14/15 uppers for a day or so but the trend has been there for milder weather in the ensembles and that has become more obvious today. Just my opinion though.

Moaning in the model thread ?? No way ??? Last I checked in it was all about the south and that low and the cold air getting mixed out. The laugh is the cold hasn’t even arrived and already they’re talking a breakdown !! Unbelievable

I have been watching the forecasts from the experts on here and also the met office and it always said the last few days of the month for cold, possibly very cold to arrive. I agree with what u have said in that regard.Those are some of the best charts I have seen on here in a long time. I don’t understand how so many negative comments though are circulating in here esp for England and Wales as the charts have been consistent for very cold temps. NI and parts of Scotland are above zero during the day, dew points are closer to zero, esp around the coast and the 850’s aren’t as low. It will be interesting for the West / NW to see how we get on with this but looks great for England / Wales

This isn’t just about the east. When you have a set up like the models have shown over the last few days expectations are high for the whole country to be sub -10 850’s at the least. In N.I the 850’s were modelled -13/-14 yesterday and sit now at -8. So a hell of a difference. Yes it is one run and will likely change again but with charts that have appeared it would be nice to see the whole country in on the act.

Anyone living in Hastings or close by is doing well. Look at Hastings live webcam. Chucking it down and frequent lightning. Also the live webcam from the pier at Brighton has some good flashes going on although much less regular. Happy viewing

It's been like this all winter. I had 1 covering of hail and about 5 frosts. Depressing.

To date we have had 1 frost last night and 1 very light covering of snow from that northerly this winter. That's it. It has been dire. Dry yes but cloudy with little sun. I hope to God this summer brings us warm and sunny weather to lift the gloom of a completely non-descript winter. Nothing in the charts to suggest anything cold going forward. Mild and zonal.

Finally white outside !!

What's the rise in temp all about mountain? Impression I got from the charts and forecasts was it was to get colder not milder as the winds swung more towards northerly. Something has been missed during this. Must be a warm sector or something which would be a nowcast event.

The North Down snow barrier has been breached !! Obbie 1 has weaved his powers and struck a blow to the shield !! Lol snowing lightly and lying on cars and roofs. I'm at sea level. At least it's something !! Lol

It's certainly not what was forecast Ronan. Very disappointing. The wait goes on looking at the radar it's all fizzling out the further south and east it progresses. One of the ingredients is missing for snow.

I myself don't understand why showers would be of sleet or rain. The forecast uppers were cold enough and D/P's forecast as 0c or below even at the coast. Its bone dry here still with any showers die-ing out as they make further progress towards Belfast and east coast. A question for someone:- why does a W, NW or N airstream have little difficulty at other times of the year getting rain showers to the east coast but come winter snow showers die out as they progress inland. Any reason?

That's always the million dollar question. Can only hope. Charts looking good for later next week to turn colder again and possible potent northerly as high heads to Greenland.

Being trying since 2010. Might have to goto the dark side !!lol

Bone dry as usual here. Northdown snow shield unbreakable. May need Obbie 1 to sort this !!Lol