johnny1972

The laugh about it is and I've been on here since 2008 is that as u say if it's not snowing / stormy / thunderstorms / major wind event etc in London and SE then it's not happening anywhere. Some great posters in model thread but some whinging and gurning done also. Every run taken at face value. I haven't seen snow for nearly 2 winters now but it is what it is. Maybe that will change in next day or so. Good luck everyone for the white stuff !!

Both charts mild with SW winds for most of the UK. On wrong side of HP again !!

I will go for 1cm if I'm lucky at my location. So miss Dec 2010. Even here we had 8inches and sub zero temps day and night. Barely get a flake now.

Only cold for England possibly Wales. That high for Scotland and NI has hung around like a bad smell in the wrong place all winter. That's a mild SW flow for us. Last frost I saw because of this position was end of November !!

Not much better here either MS. No frost since end of November and no snow now for going on 2nd full winter. Dec 2010 but a distant memory even for me on the coast. I had 8inches of snow on the ground then !!

Good job it's in FI? That's were all the cold charts have been all winter for the UK !! Not one cold chart has verified. The euro slug has meandered around our shores all winter. Our cold has headed well north and east.

Nick i personally believe looking at the charts since November that something in the background is seriously affecting the winter pattern this year not picked up by anyone inc the MET. It's all scraps as you say and I don't see anything promising at all going forward. For me the last frost I had was end of November and no snow now for a 2nd winter. Not good.

I have been model watching for quite a while now and unfortunately have many times seen these wonderful cold charts sitting at day 10+ before. This winter has been no exception. Whatever signal(s) is/are causing the issue in the background appears to have most stumped this year with the high meandering around the UK since pretty much end of Nov and decking to move to Greenland or scandinto a more favourable position for the U.K. NH profiles may have looked good and may still do but something is causing this HP to stand its ground. Unfortunately no amount of if we could get this to move here or this to move there or more energy into the southern arm of the jet or that shortwave if it wasn't there is going to make a difference. The charts are very disappointing and I would love to know the drivers affecting our weather this year which have meant the cold has been so near but yet so far away. So many forecasts have been stumped to date. I'm sure the likes of SM, GP, Tamara and others are scratching their heads given the work they put in wondering what's missing. Just a question. Does anyone believe the SST pattern has been overlooked in the main and maybe a more contributing factor than first thought?

Steve FG was at that last night with Mountain Shadow when posts clearly explained why he believed the initial northerly would only last upto 36hrs. He then gave his reasoning. Some people just don't read posts properly. johnny

I think if you look back at mountain shadows posts it is far from guess work but his analysis of the output coupled with his knowledge of the AMM, MJO and Stratosphere state that are guiding his analysis. The 2 critical posts offer nothing. I'm sure most on here could predict cold and snow will occur at some point in January, it being a winter month.

Damian I have read with interest the posts and charts since November. The charts presently scream 2015 all over again going forward with an endless SW flow and BBQ's coming back out. I completely respect all the work done and continuing to be done by the knowledgeable on here and we all know who they are. I know there are many signals for the global pattern but I have noticed (correct me if I'm wrong) that the power in the jet stream has coincided with the vortex setting up shop in the Canadian sector which is interacting with the warm waters off the Newfoundland area thus creating a steep temp gradient. The same SST pattern was prevalent last year. In 2010 it was the opposite with cold water off Newfoundland and warm waters much further south. could it be that it is really much simpler at present to look in this area as IMHO the interaction of the vortex with the much warmer SST's are driving our weather patterns here in the U.K. and NW Europe. I am a coldy through and through but although there definitely are different signals this year they clearly aren't affecting the pattern as much as thought. Views?

Frosty - the 06z is one run !! The models are up and down at the minute and every winter is the same. Knowledge is power and no-one has a week to a fortnight forecast in advance nailed never mind a winter forecast. Some of the guys on here are very knowledgeable and are trying to show what signals are being shown. It just shows how a weather event 1000's of miles from our shores can impact these signals. I recall recently the storm for southern England - the met office still weren't sure of its track 12hrs beforehand and even then it still tracked further south than forecast impacting more severely northern France. So i fail to understand why people quote off one run rather than try and put the pieces together and look for a trend as to what is more likely to happen.

Would have to disagree - reason being it has been consistent now for a while on the cold theme and added to the other back ground signals would have a better than average chance of coming off. Would love to see it verify as Gav has shown and I'm sure it will be interesting to see the final outcome !!

Bit disingenuous there Blue. Gav yes used one run but has done since he started the Xmas forecast. As he said putting them all together there was a trend appearing. I was always told that was the way to look at the charts and not the run by run analysis on a daily basis of the models which sends people over the edge. Example being the ongoing saga re blocking. I have loss count of the amount of times Tamara / GP / M Hugo / Steve Murr / BFTP to name but a few have tried to get people on here to focus on the longer trends and back ground signals which effectively is what Gavs video is. Mid Dec has been mentioned so many times yet if charts aren't showing at day 6 or 10 these signals then there is melt down. 6 - 10 days from now isn't mid Dec.

It has already started. Complete waste of time this snap In Donaghadee. Sleet was the best I could do and no frost. I would love to know the full synoptic picture for the now infamous Dec 2010. We had 7 - 8 inches of snow right here on the coast for at least a fortnight and streamers off the sea. Was amazing. And that from a northerly / N easterly. Added to that the exceptionally low temperatures even by day. Unless February produces the goods by which time the sun will be bit higher in sky and slightly longer days, then this will be another winter right off. Hope it's not but..............?

Away from the coast the key line MS. Only sleet here all night and this morning.

Good evening folks. Haven't posted for a while but been watching models for some time. This as I would call it cool spell will be pretty much be a damp squib for most. Sleet / rain on coasts and snow inland and on higher ground. The models have been all over the place. Never seen it as bad. Some dream charts have evaporated away that would have possibly brought a DEC 2010 spell to all even on coasts. This I don't think will last beyond next Monday at most. I really do hope for a good February to rescue a poor winter. Hope some get the snow they crave.

CI think many on here have missed a very important point as too why the models are moving away from an easterly. The jet profile. The jet is forecast to dive south in the Atlantic but unlike recent years is not forecast to then send it's energy eastwards through the North African / Mediterranean region which would support any development of a low pressure system over the Italy / Greece regions.

Brilliant storm just passed overhead Bangor, North County Down coast, NI. Lasted at least an hour. Torrential rain, constant thunder and lightning. Has moved out over Irish Sea and constant thunder continues. Very humid again now that its passed with no wind. Convection going up everywhere. Brilliant start to afternoon !!

Is there any potential today and next few days for NI watcher or is this good spell going out with the usual whimper?

Heavy shower in belfast but no thunder or lightning. Looks like a weak breakdown for NI to an almost record breaking spell of weather.

Heavy shower in belfast. No thunder or lighting and not looking like it either from the forecast. Disappointing breakdown to a crackin spell of weather.

Yes thunderstorm just west of belfast lasted good 20 mins. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and hail to 1.0 - 1.5 cm in very heavy burst. Hope the rest of the week can produce similar.

Snowman I know how u feel. I live in a place called Donaghadee on the East coast of Northern Ireland and I have seen falling sleet / wet snow during winter and the most recent storm. Lying snow I've seen none. Inland and higher ground has done exceptionally well. Alot of roads blocked similar too the pictures on BBC news of Cumbria. For me were I live this winter has been unfortunately on the wrong side of marginal. Whether the SST's are higher and therefore moderating the temperature, I don't know. But I've done alot better before, 2010 a prime example. I do share your frustration !!

Ice pellets mixed with snow falling on coast at Donaghadee. Some seriously high winds. Don't know what to expect here later. Was up around New Line at Carrick earlier over towards Larne line. Some big falls there already. It's a pity but definitely yet again a higher ground event. Any ideas y ice pellets anyone?