johnny1972

Thanks very much. Keep up the great work with this blog !!

Jack one Would really appreciate it If u included Italy in your forecasts. Heading to sauze d'oulx in January Cheers

Jackone Would really appreciate inclusion of Italy in your forecasts. Heading to sauze d'oulx in January Cheers

I haven't posted for a while but follow the winter topics Inc the arctic ice and northern hemisphere snow topics with great interest daily. I have to say fair play to all on here who have issued winter forecasts and given good reasons for their forecasts ie BFTP.

John I think that vaguely answers my post from further back on this page. It seems very strange today. Thanks.

Folks The ensembles for my location have been progging the breakdown and rise in temps to start from 13th Jan 10 for over a week now. However 2day the temp sits at 4C, with a dew point of 0.5C and wet bulb of 2.5C (not condusive for snow). Given according to the models the 850 uppers are currently -10 or below i find this difficult to understand. I certainly would have expected temps at freezing or below. This is the second time with uppers at that value that this has happened in a week here. I have had colder weather with warmer uppers. The forecasts have got this badly wrong for some from what i have read today. Even on the webcams for aviemore and loch morlich the temp is above freezing and a slight thaw has begun. Can someone please explain in their opinion has warmer air somehow got into the mix earlier than expected or what is the cause of todays higher than predicted temps??

Cheers mate !!

TWS Not for NI, Western Scotland and Ireland - strong southerlies there with no continental influence.

Blast Very good summary again !! How do your views correspond with those of GP or Brick for the remainder of Jan and into Feb??

Paul The second chart im not that familiar with despite seeing it posted numerous times. The 1310 over NI what exactly does that mean?

Cheers for that Blast ! Your forecast has been extremely accurate so far, nice one !! Hope the breakdown doesnt arrive and some snow transfers west to us lot to top the coldest Dec here in 30yrs !! We'll See !! Heading off on 23rd Jan to same place so should be good crack and a drink or 3 !! Europe still to freeze you think or breakdown not long after us if at all??

Cheers mate that was my thinking to !! unfortunately !!

Blast Im sure uve been asked these Questions before. The GFS currently is busting to bring in a breakdown with the ensembles for my area going above -5 on the mean by 13th. However this appears contrary to the ECM and UKMO models. N.I. although cold certainly hasnt done particularly well snow wise in comparison to the mainland. I have watched yours and RJS forecasts with interest last yr and this. What are your views given the current model setup for the remainder of this month (in relation to your own thoughts and current models). Cheers PS u heading off to Hinterglemm this yr????

Any thought's for the rest of the week and into the weekend? ECM and UKMO seem very interested an a potent Easterly. GFS not so keen more a NE. Snow wise im not so sure for our locations either is of much use.

Watcher The Irish Sea has been good in the past for convection especially 2 yrs ago I believe it was for Belfast and Co.Down, however very few forecasts if any I have seen gave any shower activity away from the North Coast which I found surprising given there was an easterly component to the current wind direction. Looking at the radar now though those 2 distinct bands have moved SW and there is no more shower activity to speak of on the radar. Temp down slightly to 1.7C and the dew point has dropped further to -1.7C so definately no thawing.

Evening Folks Was watching the raintoday radar earlier and thought - bone dry for the remainder of the forecast period. Then some very small showers over the Irish Sea developed and started to push onto the coast and inland. A mix of snow/hail. Topped up the covering which didnt melt today. However now the wind has really picked up from calm to strong and the temp is sitting at 1.9C. The saving grace for the lack of snow melt is the dew point which is -1.2C. Very strange conditions considering the temp was to drop to -5C tonight. Any thoughts on whats happening anyone????

Folks I know im on the wrong thread however yous aren't alone in the v little snow category !! I had a v light covering last night and the previous to that was the sat before christmas. Yes it has been cold (apparently the coldest in 30yrs for N.I.) however despite apparently all the right ingredients (according to forecasts) we have ended up on the wrong side of the marginal for snow and had sleet and rain instead. Every time a system has moved down from the north a warm sector has developed right over us leaving the mainland on the right side of marginal for snow. Our outlook is dry with very little in the way if any any snow forecast so i understand the frustration looking at the pics and reports from most of scotland and england. Maybe our turn will come (the snow deprived) !!

Hi Jello Where did you get the warning from? Snow v light here now and almost stopped.

Heavy snow falling here now to and looks like more to come. ground well covered already !!

Folks For those who have had alot of snow and freezing temps through this cold spell, happy days. Here, temps havent for whatever reason gone quite as low as predicted over the period and in comparison to other areas. I can certainly remember colder ! Snow has been restricted to one fall on the Sat nite b4 Christmas. Hardly a classic by any stretch of the imagination ! Considering this was the coldest Dec in 30yrs it was very dry and snow events were unfortunately the wrong side of marginal most of the time due to warm sector formation on troughs moving south. Sea surface temps are below normal, upper air temps have been very low so for some parts of the province and im sure down south to date this has been a disappointment. Just my thoughts !!

Couldn't agree more Jed !!

Guys Missing data or no missing data i find it incredible some of the negativity in some posts. The UK as a whole has had up to yesterday the coldest spell of weather for many years. The charts have been up and down but have trended towards a generally cold to v cold pattern well into the new year. Variations on a day to day basis are inevitable but having read some of GP's posts and some others from the more experienced members on here, one of the things to look for was a combination of the -AO and -NAO set up. The forecast indexes for both remain very negative -2 in the case of the NAO and sub -4 in the case of the AO, well into the new year. Blocking is extensive in the Northern Hemisphere, which many of the LRF's pointed to. I don't think we have a great deal to worry about re the cold pattern sustaining. Some get very hung up on snow for their area. This is very hard to predict as has been said on here time and time again. I have watched TV footage of some of the snow events on the mainland and parts of N.I. away from were I live and trust me many of you have done really well so far. I only wish the area I lived in saw the amount of snow some have experienced. Look forward to the remainder of the winter and I for one will take great interest in GP's, SM's NS, BFTP, RJS upcoming posts. These guys seem confident in what they see in the charts so im happy with that !!!!

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL ON NET WEATHER !!!!! MAY THE COLD CONTINUE AND CAN I JUST SAY THANKS TO ALL WHO PUT THE TIME AND EFFORT IN ON THIS FORUM TO ENHANCE THE KNOWLEDGE OF PURE AMATEURS LIKE MYSELF !!

TEITS Taking not just todays but at least the last 3 days runs I would agree with you that they have shown after slightly milder 2 - 3 days a return to cold/v cold conditions into next week for the new year and possibly beyond. I have looked at the AO and NAO forecasts and they remain very negative ! The jet appears to be still displaced well to the south (Spain), however towards the new year some energy appears to be forecast to go into the northern arm up the west of greenland over the top and down its east coast. I understand the southern arm and its implications however what would be the implications for us if some energy goes into the northern arm as described above??

Yes Watcher I have seen the charts the last few days and they prolong this spell with the exception of v slightly milder air at the tail end of this week and the weekend. Start of next week on looks very interesting to say the least. If those charts come off everything will have clicked into place this year. A bit more snow for us at Sea Level would be nice instead of the sleet of recent days. HAVE A GOOD CHRISTMAS EVERYONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!