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Everything posted by John in the frozen north
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
John in the frozen north replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think about this..... Just because a forecast or model turns out to be wrong it doesn't make it a bad forecast as all we can ask a forecast/model to do is to tell us the most likely outcome for the future weather at the time it was made. After that (remembering that weather systems are chaotic) what actually happens, which is not determined at the time the forecast is made, may not be the most likely outcome at the time of the forecast, so in fact the best model/forecast may get it wrong and the worst one may get it right. -
Hi frozen north people, So what are we going to get. Snowy day tomorrow and thaw Weds on? Or will the cold hang on a bit? Should be fun anyway. On the BBC issue it is now a joke. Is all they are allowed to do read the script when if any of them bother to look at the forecast models like many weather watchers they would know that what they are saying is not the most likely outcome. Met office doing much better so just watching their forecasts now. I realise the south is going to be warm while we get some snow but they have so downplayed the snow for many this week, especially Scotland and the chance of a very cold weekend and week next week. If they are worried about saying the wrong thing then just stick to today/tomorrow forecast.
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
John in the frozen north replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This winter here has been the best (snowiest) we have had for several years. We had snow lying from Christmas Eve until a few days ago except a couple of days. Most places in Britain don't get much snow except the odd winter every 10 or 20 years - not sure what you are expecting? Snow tonight too?