Backtrack

And yet the UKV is way out at just T+4. I think this week is more about just checking SAT24 and your own weather station rather than the models. Especially when a super high resolution model such as the UKV can't pin down PPN at this time frame.

Heavy showers of hail, sleet snow here. Covering briefly and melting.

We have been absolutely hammered with hail, sleet and snow showers the past hour or so. Almost crashed on the m62, lanes disappeared in seconds, temp fell from 4C to 0.5C in less than 3 minutes, insane power of the Irish Sea, the same power I was talking about the other day. Shame the trough has moved through now, the end of the good stuff, for at least a time.

Kasim, as much as I admire your enthusiasm, I wish you’d sometimes take peoples advice, especially on your Facebook page. You absolutely do bat an eyelid, the slightest bit of a fall and you’re all over it calling it a blizzard, heavy snow, warning pictures all over it. The uppers/conditions today were never conductive of anything other than a bit of a wintry mix, someone with your knowledge level knows that but I feel you let your excitement dominate over the science. At the end of the day, I’ve seen streamers develop in high winds, I’ve seen streamers develop in very little wind. Today has been perfectly modelled by the higher resolution models, the Met Office I feel just have to cover themselves in case the Irish Sea does decide to wake up. The proximity of the HP certainly doesn’t aid shower development, the flow isn’t unstable enough. I also feel like it’s a bit of a toys out of pram scenario above where you’ve declared winter 2021/2022 over. You know as well as I, that the background signals are still there for something more potent. As someone who lives in Buxton especially, you haven’t seen the last of what this winter has to offer just yet. Chill out, take a seat and just ride with it. What can you do at the end of the day?

Worth noting the ice pellets mixed in. An indicator of marginality. I give it 30-45 minutes before it turns to rain. Ice pellets are always almost certainly a precursor of what’s to follow. Rain.

Snowing! Was worried that temps were a bit too high, but it’s started as snow. Won’t last though.

Same as most, a weirdly milder than expected morning today without a frost. Got geared up to embrace the cold when I left for work this morning, only to be hit with air that was about 4C above where I expected it to be! Though it looks like we had a good deal of rain/hail showers overnight which have helped to keep the temp up. The flow has demised the promise of a sunny day too with a lot of cloud floating about at the moment, compared with yesterday which was near wall-to-wall sunshine. What's really been lacking here recently, and indeed recent years, is the shear convective power of the Irish Sea. I used to absolutely love a NW'erly in winter living closer to the coast, whilst we wouldn't usually get much snow from it, it would produce frequent hail showers and even the odd hail storm under a streamer. I remember a good few years ago now we were sat under a streamer of hail & grauple for about 3 hours, it left inches and inches of hail on the floor that lasted ages, it was incredible. Nothing like that has happened since. A bit of a strange one for these bands coming up tonight and tomorrow. Milder air looks to rapidly undercut, turning anything wintry back to rain after an hour or so, unless you live higher up, might squeeze a little more out of it. May take a trip up to the Cat & Fiddle over the weekend if they can maintain a little snow. Haven't seen any since late November and got my little lad asking when winter is coming with no certain answer on the cards for him at the moment.

Sunshine yesterday? You mean the whole 35 seconds of it when it peered through the window around 8:30am? I think initially, we may see some brighter weather developing. It's such a strong, established high. Shame it doesn't wait until summer, the sun would make short work of any 'gloom' and give us blue skies and bronzed skin. Near-solid agreement there on the ENS for the cold to bottom out around Christmas Day, which would be lovely. The lowest of single digits, fire, good food, good company and a warming drink, what more can you ask for? If you can't have the snow, then a festive feel is the next best thing!

I really can't see what all of the doom and gloom is about. That HP on the 06Z would herald a change from the cool, wet, blustery regime to a sunny, frosty, foggy, dry spell. What's up with that? It's been a good while since we have had a nice HP sat slap, bang over the UK. I welcome it as I'm absolutely sick of this rain. It's rained almost every day so far this December. Yes, I know it's winter and in the UK that means 4-5 months of persistent rubbish. But we deserve a break. And hey, could be worse. Could be a Barlett high *touch wood*.

Some heavy rain coming down here. Feels cold, but it’s around 4-5C. I honestly can’t see much in the way of snow next week, probably just some transient stuff. Temps 5-7C during the day times. I fail to see where the excitement is coming from? Setting up for disappointment there.

It’s way colder than forecast but I can’t see any low level snow tonight unfortunately.

Well that’s unexpected. Woke up to a dusting of snow/hail/grauple. 3 days of lying snow by December 2nd is impressive. That’s impressive for a whole winter here, never mind the second day of winter. Oh well, that’s it till next winter now

Locally… LOCALLY ICY!!?? What drugs do these guys at the Met take?!

1C, absolutely bone chilling. Especially for November.

A select few could see some flakes this morning with some moisture now starting to move in from the sea. Either that or some freezing rain as the cold uppers are mixed out. Won’t be much non-the-less. Yep, I’ve also said it three times. Pathetic from the Met. If this was the south, there would certainly have been an amber warning. It’s dangerous out there! More dangerous than the wind the other day, and that got a red warning.

The met office have just updated their ice warning to cover more of the midlands and Yorkshire. They’re a joke

Couple of centimetres on the ground and it’ll probably stay there till the milder air comes in. Very disappointed with the met office tbh, no snow warning and no ice warning. The roads are treacherous around here. Currently -0.5C

Every time it looks like stopping it just reinvigorates and starts again. Clearly lots of left over energy from the occlusion combined with the Irish Sea, hopefully it keeps back building for a while

Gonna be FREEZING tonight if the snow sticks around. -5/-6C possible. There’s no wind and skies will clear.

And the met office just issue a warning for the midlands when we’re getting hammered right now? Are they on drugs?

Wow! IMG_7808.MOV

Okay, this just turned super heavy and has stuck everywhere. IMG_7806.MOV

Nothing but snow in Widnes still. Starting to readily stick, not measurable. Still a dusting, but makes it look nice everywhere.

Still going. Light dusting on some favourable surfaces.

Alternating between moderate and heavy snow. Trying to stick but just a little too mild.