Backtrack

Yeah if the lake is frozen hahah

12z isn't out yet 00z roughly starts at 3:30am, 06z at 9:30am, 12z 3:30pm, 18z 9:30pm. The 12Z run has added weather balloon variables so can be seen as slightly superior over the other three runs.

Give it an hour man

Sun won't make a huge difference at this time of year. There was no solar input 2010 and look what spawned outta no where!

3.9C, dew 1C

It was always gonna be rain before 17:00hrs. It's after dark that the fun begins. That said, Met Office have removed PPN signal for S of the region in their automated weather symbols

Clear skies do not dictate the upper air temperature. They dictate the temperature at 2M surface level, along with other variables

NMM, radar, nowcast

Isn't a hi-res model- they'll use an hourly model, tweet Ian F on twitter and give him an ask

No lol

Ah, the world's most inaccurate PPN charts. Why anyone uses those, I have no idea.

Why're you down as 'Greater Liverpool'? We're still Halton/Cheshire?

If you think that, then you're silly. Looks fantastic for us all tomorrow night

Apologies, phone corrected UKMO to Met O. Yes, but 12Z has stepped somewhat away from 06z solution.

Consistency is one thing, but with the Met O backing down, of sorts at least, and the GFS backtracking, I'm unsure how much I buy into the ECM, we've been here before, albeit with less of a consistent signal from ECM

Worryingly though, the ECM is on its own

Just can't see the region missing out. Looks perfect even for absolute coastal fringes. Irish Sea temps will create a lot of instability, the trough sitting in the sea creating the instability is perhaps the cause of the mention of thunder snow in the met office warning. I expect also the warning area for Friday to be extended eastwards. This certainly is NOT an event for east of the M6, away from high ground the west should do better than the east. Uppers look good, thickness, dew, wet bulb, all good. I think we'll all see 2-10cm come Friday night

Nah, not buying into GFS. Should get some snow this week- easterly preceding

Trough in the Irish Sea so close to home. This would bury us!!!

UKMO seems of been the form horse when it comes to sticking to guns. I feel like the GFS is out on it's own- but then of course we've been here before where the Euros have backed toward the GFS. Strikes me as unusual though that Exeter aren't backing the ECM or their own model. 18Z crucial

High cloud from tomorrow's weather front starting to spill in now. Suspect that calls game over on any chance of an early frost tonight too. Still feels cold outside tho i posted that at like 3pm but it didn't post cloud is here now. Dropped to 0.4C but now back up to 1c

It's called the Azores high for a reason, so yes, if it's displaced it's uncommon, but not uncommon to get LP's into Spain etc, especially in the winter months

High cloud from tomorrow's weather front starting to spill in now. Suspect that calls game over on any chance of an early frost tonight too. Still feels cold outside tho.

I think 06Z is closest to the mark yet, with it showing pretty much what the met office text forecasts suggests, in regard to 'mild, cold, mild, cold'. Winds from NW quadrant seem most likely for this.

-2.4C overnight minimum. Not as cold as I expected