Backtrack

Coming from a realistic point of view- isn't it unlikely that our entire longitude position across the entire earth is affected by a cold outbreak? Below average in a ring around the earth. Chart seems unlikely, surely?

I think that would bring in the coldest westerly I've even seen!

1.6C already, much colder than last night at this time

We dropped to bang on -1.0C overnight. It's currently 0.9C at midday, very cold indeed! I've invested in a new weather station now, so I'm back!

With colder uppers on the way, plenty of cold to tap into to the NW on this run, that would make for some interesting lampost watching and you know it!

With a pressure gradient that low and relatively cold uppers, that would never fall as rain

Jesus, if 20 miles is a short bike ride, I'd hate to hear what you class as a long one!

4.8C

But at this time frame, is there really time for a big enough shift westwards? I think not. 'Close but no cigar' comes to mind....as usual.

Yesterday's 06Z run out the entire forum into overdrive. Bitterly cold easterly with 'state of emergency' likely. This got quickly dismissed by further runs. Todays 12Z sends the forum into overdrive again. This time due to delaying the cold. Although the UKMO does offer some support, it's still only 1 run, and it's not offering mild conditions. In my eyes they're just playing with synoptics with no current cross-model agreement. This is likely to be dismissed also, they're not in the reliable timeframe. we were warned yesterday of the chopping and changing likely whilst they try and handle the current situation All is still to play for, eyes to the north and east- met office will always be 'slack' on their wording in their text forecasts- they can't offer a bias. A promise of 'smowmageddon' would send the media into overdrive also. The cold will come- how intense is yet to be confirmed, but January is still looking good!

Met office text forecasts suggested cloudy today and cloudy tonight with cloud sinking down from the north? Can't see that myself. Azores blue skies & cold.

Still an ever-evolving scenario. It's where we go from the building pressure. Let's get it in place, then worry about the longevity of any cold spell. Still in the medium term but there's hints from many members of a continuation of below average signal into mid-Jan.

Wrong thread to discuss, but their update is very encouraging? They mention high pressure building to the west, bringing a potential blocked period with northerly winds dominating. Models are starting to put this scenario into play from just the medium term, rather than out in FI. The most encouraging update so far this winter.

Disagree with the 'very mild' Christmas statement. Looks like PM flow with strong winds, frequent rain, hail, sleet for low levels, western coasts especially, and snow over the Pennines and mountains of northern Scotland. Traditional winter weather, so whilst it's not going to be a rare 'white christmas'. It'll at least feel more seasonal than as of late. According to the latest GFS.

Nah I just don't sleep hahah. Ooooo who posted that? We're expecting, due in March thanks CS

I'd just be happy with some sun!!!

Mate those socks are long eaten! Whats happening is a standard winter pattern. The U.K. Can never seem to sustain anything for a long period of time, so the usual mild, cold, mild, cold scenario looking likely, I do think a colder spell is on the cards soon. Hopefully in time for Christmas.

What a horrible day. Cool, murky and nothing happening

Just about to tick over to 0C. Not as cold as I expected.

Not sure why I thought it was snow. I've just checked the uppers; hahah! It's deffo rain.

It's 0.4C and feels horrible out here. It's also starting to rain/snow. Can't work out what it is, it's too light.

Hovering around -2C. Still no cloud

Dropping fast out there. It's around zero already. Would've been a cold one if it wasn't for that cold front, damn it.

Apparently we had a covering in Runcorn this morning. I slept in until 12 midday so I have no idea, lol. Lost a lot of interest now, university and stuff takes over!

Edited, I meant days! Haha