Backtrack

Still 0.9C here at the warmest time of day colder than Met Office forecasts!

Irish Sea is pepping it up too. Could evaporative cooling play a big part tonight? I wonder. Freezing rain could be an issue.

You'll have to update us later HC

The uppers don't look particularly conductive even for frontal snowfalls though, which is unfortunate. A slight push west of all that deep cold over the near continent would be fantastic! im happy for cold sunny days though I'm just thankful to see the last of the rains. We've had enough to last until next winter now!

Irish Sea certainly doing well at pepping up the front. Unfortunately though, it's the Irish Sea, and it loves to moderate our climate! Do you still have your friend who works at the airport? He was very reliable!

Let's hope it stays that way for the 12Z suites!

Good to see you back HC Snow for us tonight? I think so! Ps, your DP can't be -0.4C if your T=-0.7C

Hovering around the -1C mark here. Sun has gone in

That's very knife edge. Liverpool setting the boundary between mild & cold as usual! The Scotts are reporting anaprop. Apparently the radar is false, showing PPN with nothing falling. Evaporative cooling? I think not?

Check the radar. Irish Sea making a mockery of forecasts. PPN will be here in an hour!!!!!

That perfectly aligns with the Met Office warning

Unfortunately, PPN is now arriving around 2-3pm. This isn't good last minute downgrades.

It's worth noting that for many of us, the Met Office go for rain turning to snow. This bodes well with recent modelling. It's gonna be fun

Yup, cold aloft falling through a warm sector, only to meet cold surface temperatures and freeze on impact.

A cold start! -2.7C according to my new station

I'll just leave this here

Doesn't that technically make it a polar low?

That's well good man! ive just bought a new one from Amazon. Doesn't even have an LED backlight, might send it back, the temperature seems inaccurate and that was just over £30! It was either that one or a Davies, but that one had hardly any features and was £40

What weather station is that? That's a very nice display!

Met office/BBC rarely take the GFS, that's been said countless times by Met forecasters; Ian F included in the model thread. Today was a letdown. The uppers were productive yes, but with any westerly element to the wind, there's always gonna be a layer in between the surface and 850HPA which has been moderated by the Irish Sea. Surface temperatures today also reflected the significant moderation. Reaching 5C even in Manchester. tomorrow we have the SE/SSE component at all levels, meaning no moderation. The uppers do not need to be -5C or below either. Frontal snowfalls are much different. -2/-3 is perfectly viable. I think some are in for a big surprise tomorrow. As for the warnings, December 2010's (I think) red warning wasn't issued until the event was already underway. The precipitation is arriving at the best time possible, right in the middle of the night. Let's see how low the temps drop tonight, which will determine the temperature maximums for tomorrow edit: dew points looks fantastic!

The Irish Sea is the problem. It's just too damn warm, it's modifying the temperatures AND upper profiles. It's why we're getting rain & hail. Further inland it'll be snow. Isnt even looking like much of a 'cold' spell now. Just dross.

3.2C, rain

Rain, sleet & small hailstones here this afternoon. Sun has gone. It feels mild though.

Not according to the TAF & high resolution models (IE NMM).

I'll buy the NMM later & have a gander at the upper wind vectors I'll post the chart when I do, just on my way to university.