Backtrack

Covering of slush on the cars this morning, so it's evidentially snowed overnight. @karyo do you literally ever shut up moaning? Like, can you at least let the cold get into place, the high establish itself before you star slating it? The main event was never set for yesterday; it was always tonight. So chill your beans, sit back and enjoy the ride man!

Just drove to the highest point in Runcorn (120m ASL) as it was sleeting at my level where I am. And even up there it's just sleet. Not gonna happen tonight unfortunately. Not cold enough. Rubbish

Met office says heavy PPN till 4am. Can't see where that's coming from?

It turned to snow for about 15 seconds oh well that's it now. Better look next winter hahahaha

Nah not enough PPN

Snowing at Anfield. Sleeting here, rubbishhhhhh

DP will continue to rise. Irish Sea to blame. Very 'moist' direction. That's why we need the temperatures to drop to equate the dew point. DP can never exceed the temperature remember.

You know full well I love snow haha!

Ahahahh, true. At least they're safe from being stolen though. Mr. Scouse

Those forecasts are generated by raw model output. Pay attention to their text forecasts. The automated ones are generally useful for cloud amounts. But rubbish for PPN type.

Well dogs don't lay eggs for a start. Secondly, the cold spell hasn't even started yet? Chill your beans.

Hang on though. Where's that high going? Like you say, that could well progress eastwards and sit close to, or over Scandinavia. It's happened numerous times before, especially in summer. What could happen beyond week 2 is a spell of easterlies after a brief less cold interlude. Now that would salvage winter. From record breaking mild to a cold Jan & Feb. Interesting.

@fergieweather Forgive me Ian, but could you tell me what the chart shows on your last post? I assumed it was the freezing level, but unsure without a key. My meteorological knowledge has dwindlelled a lot lately. Thanks in advance!

Typical. The ECM backtracks towards the 12Z GFS, then the 18Z GFS backtracks to what the ECM WAS showing yesterday haha

In my opinion, both the ECM & GFS 12Z runs today are the most important. It's getting into the range now where the larger scale is pretty much nailed. It's the fine-tuning that's to be confirmed. Short-term upgrades would be fantastic. This allows a larger margin for error in the short term.

Ah! Thank you

That's not the way it's going. Regardless, embedded surface cold comes into play. That's not a mild high.

That is not a euro high. That's the Azores ridge. It's been progged for days. Its the anti-cyclonic spell that I've mentioned in my above post.

Leading edge snow is always a possibility, but in my eyes pointless. Obviously with -3/-4 upper air profiles in place, the chance of widespread frontal snow is there which doesn't necessarily require the coldest uppers. But in my eyes this is turning into a cold snap rather than a cold spell, according to the GFS If it wasn't for such a mild December, this sort of cold spell wouldn't even be exciting 90% of the members on the board. Poor effort, but good reload potential from the east, I guess. Im more looking forward to an anti-cyclonic spell, some frosts & sunny days would be nice!

Indeed. Everything bottled up further north. Significantly lowers the risk of low level snow Thursday should this run verify.

Hello. When end viewing the forum on mobile/tablet, there's no links to other areas of the website such as charts or the homepage. So I have to go all the way back to the homepage just to access another area. Am I missing links somewhere? As I know it's not like that on the desktop version.

Indeed the 18Z is an improvement, from a cold viewers perspective; but last night's 18Z was a disaster of a run, and most discounted it, with the reasoning that 'it's just the pub run'. Now I do love cold, and whilst I don't think it should be discounted, I think extreme caution should be taken when approaching the GFS currently, with its extremely volatile modelling. It's flipping & flopping every run. It could go either way, but I would like to see absolute cross-model agreement before getting my hopes up. The NH profile and teleconnections are looking much better, but this is the UK, and if something can go wrong, it will go wrong.

Not really. Quite the opposite if you get a foehn effect going on. Moving air just affects how it feels, rather than the reading of the temperature of that air.

Merry Christmas ya filthy animals