Backtrack

I'm beginning to wonder what exactly is the key driver for these seemingly relentless NW'erlies. Flicking through here, yes high pressure does build in but there's always a NW'erly element to that wind, which is darn right annoying. I can't even remember the last time we had a nice SE'erly? Or even a moist, but warm SW'erly for that matter? It's clear though looking at the Met Office outlook, with significant consistency for a while now, that things could be about to change with temperatures perhaps rising to around or above average in a couple of weeks. But it's always a couple of weeks. By the time we actually get the above average temperatures, it'll be bloody December, and that'll just annoy everyone further

Wasn't to be taken literally, it was more of a 'I was disheartened at the downgraded predicted summer weather I've been looking forward to for 12 months' kinda post.

Meanwhile, GFS 12Z Tulloch Bridge, Scotland:

Oh dear! 12Z looking like a disaster so far. Could be game over.

Adding to last post and referral to post above; Whilst models are struggling, I guess the slight consolation we can take from this is that the weekend is 6 days away: 144hrs is a large time frame in forecasting, especially when can't pin down a 14hr timeframe This whole thing could still shift back westwards leaving the United Kingdom basking in the early summer sunshine. I'll wait for the traditionally more reliable 12Z runs.

The GFS, whilst not woeful, is a bad run. Especially for this time of year, with the 5C isotherm avoiding our shores at all costs, visiting for only brief periods. This is somewhat of an annoyance especially for June, typically the best summer month. Whilst it is a bad run, it's going against the UKMO, the ECM and some minor models with it shoving the entire pattern too far eastwards. Not only this, but it's out on its own completely against the Met Office text forecasts. How reliable is the new higher res GFS? Well we've seen the old GFS disprove everything else in the past, so there's every reason to say the new one should do it even better. This is more of a disappointment post, but it's based around facts. I think if the ECM runs later and shoves the brief spell of warmth on Thursday and Friday eastwards, it's really a case of looking AGAIN further on down the line for a possible reload scenario. Everything's gone wrong. 30C+ two days ago, to 13C for some under the influence of lower pressure from the north. This is something the Met Office did NOT suggest in their text forecasts, they in fact said quite the opposite with high pressure to our North East giving better conditions in the north. They've quickly backed down from this now, typically. So what do I see? A typical UK spell, one day of sunshine, temperatures rather good, feeling fantastic in the sunshine. Then overcast and damp the next day, no breakdown in the form of an electrial storm, followed by a usual regime of sunshine and showers for the rest of June. People looking for a settled spell lasting more than 5 days, myself included need to remember where we live, and that here, in the worlds worst climate, if it can go wrong. It will.

18.4C please

PLEASE can someone define 'The South' we get this problem every year. But every post I read mentions it! What exactly do you define as the South?! South of Scotland, south of Wales?!

It's been around average sunshine wise, dry and cool. But looking at the models this evening, it could well change come Wednesday! Which is exciting

Hoping for some warmth and sunshine tomorrow, I'm heading to Anglesey for the day

The Scottish Highlands are prone to hitting high temperatures when the sun shines. They always hit an early 20C in spring given the right setup.

Against everyone else I'll go for 10.0C

Oh god, 18C here? YES PLEASE!

Your posts make VERY little sense to me at the best of times. Of course the CFS outputs aren't guarantee. 1) all forecasts are predictions and never nailed on, 2) it's 3 months until June, 5 until August....

This weather is bloody rubbish!

I've created this thread three years in a row now. You know summer is well and truly on the way when you start to see the first moderate UV indexes of the year appear. I've been checking since the end of February. The Met Office came on board yesterday, and UV Awareness only today. Similarly to year 1 & 2, this UV forecast is for Hayle in Cornwall. The Isles of Scilly have a stronger UV forecast, but as they're not connected to mainland UK, and they're the most southerly parts, I'll only post that forecast as an example, as it wouldn't be fair or quantitative based on years 1 & 2. Hayle: Isles of Scilly: Met Office for SW England: Interestingly, this is a few days later than years 1 & 2, year's 1 being started on March 12th and last year's on March 14th.

April 3rd, Doncaster.

It's not, zoom in, it sorts it. Working fine on my iPhone 5S running 8.1.3

Why? With a strong, dominant high, March will see winter go out with a wimper, rather than a fight. Might as well jump aboard the spring express now!

Looks like exceeding 16C here this coming weekend, now that I am looking forward to!

Snowing heavy in runcorn, just nipped to warrington and it's even heavier!

NO chance. Look at the surface temps, dew's, uppers. That chart is wrong.

0C here just before sunrise.

This weather is BLOODY DEPRESSING, ANNOYING, HORRIBLE, NASTY, BORING, CRAP, HORRIBLE, NASTY AND GREY. Spring in 17 days, FINALLY. I rate winter 1/10, SHOCKING.

As soon as the temperature hits -0.1C, it's technically counted as freezing fog. Love it when it leaves a nice frozen rime on everything, it's dangerous though! Freezing fog can indeed produce snow, too.