Backtrack

Well, I think it'll snow. No reasoning. Just felt like adding that.

The bane of living closer to the coast with above average SST's, ahhhh The amount of snow Manchester gets vs us is just plain annoying!

No, the uppers aren't the problem, they're smashing. The problem as we saw last week is a warm sector sitting below 850hPa, it's this that causes the wintryness to be limited to further inland, but I can't see there been THAT much of a problem this time, the uppers are even lower. Rain for coasts though, I suspect. East of say Warrington should be golden.

The NMM remains bullish about any PPN this far south really, but it's always the same, it's a poor model for PPN I find, but I'm also bullish about this one, especially with the Met Office agreeing. Typical as you say, soon as a more northerly element is added to the flow, we see a warm sector filter down. Spells out disappointment for me.

It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter. We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type: The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints: Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong! We see the Irish Sea coming to life on Wednesday too with showers piling into many northern parts of the region, although it's not awful indicative of many showers south of Southport, the flow is far too westerly, so I have an awful feeling that the south of the region are going to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome, Manchester as usual looks to be the prime location, places like Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, all in the firing line I'd imagine. This was about the best chart I could find for PPN for us all, isn't great. But as I say, the NMM is never good with PPN I find, and it's certainly a case of now-casting as usual. But all in all, it's looking like a rather disappointing spell of snowy weather for us in the south. Further north, enjoy! I was going to post more, but I can't for the life of me be bothered hahaha

I'll be posting my analysis before around 6pm using the NMM short & medium range

Will contribute my thoughts in the form of an exceptionally detailed analysis later. I'm just on my way to university.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. Charts that are in the high resolution time frame should ALL be taken VERY seriously. Of course the professionals take them into account, how do you think the Met Office come up with the medium and long term outlooks? Granted they will use more than one model. It's called a FIVE day forecast for a reason, and they can be made with reasonable confidence. Now when talking about precipitation amounts or sunshine amounts, charts past the 72hr mark are useless yes, but when examining the upper air profiles for trends or to get a jist of the outlook over the next 5-7 days, each and every run counts. Suggesting people calm down over a set of charts that are realistically WELL into the reliable time frame is just plain stupid. Rant over.

Sod them, greedy buggers. Get all the sunshine and heat in Summer whilst we get dross. I'll see to it the channel low doesn't materialize! We'll see mate, 4-5 days away yet, plenty of time for it to be watered back down to the -4/-5 850's which ultimately give rain/hail. P.S. Only joking with the above haha.

Well looks like winter has one more sting left in her tail yet. Some bitterly cold NW'erly winds bringing snow showers to much of the region, then we see a low running down the east coast which will bring eastern areas their beloved North Sea snow showers All in all, it's looking fantastic for everyone. What a brilliant output to end a brilliantly sunny day.

Yep, just rain here today too. Our time will come, probably in 25 years but it'll come haha

It was amazing. So much respect was paid at the end of the movie. Even when it finished, EVERYONE was in complete and utter silence.

Couldn't care less how much precipitation comes over now. The temperature is 2C, as is the DEWPOINT. What a bloody total let down. Met office issued a warning for what, drizzle? American Sniper however was amazing and I urge everyone to go watch it!

Snowing heavily. Sticking

Snowing moderately. Not sticking

Hate you

Snowing moderately!

And you look like a t-shirt

Off to the cinema anyway guys Be back around 10:30. Good luck!

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NMM has been VERY poor with precipitation over the past week or so, and even now it looks a little suspect. This is a nowcast event I'd say

I thought the same earlier, it's snow though, look closer

I have no idea what any of that means, sorry man haha!

Because Corona & snow make a fantastic combo

Not too sure where that bits heading, but check out the ppn surrounding the low in S Wales, it's pepping up every new radar frame.