Cheese Rice

Sleeting in Central.

Yup another example of a rain shadow

Raining in Central

If you go on Instagram type reading in the search bar click on the reading location tag and you can see people's stories who are in Reading. Its a quick easy way to see whats happening on ground level as everyone is posting videos of snow.

Some parts of reading have a covering already

It's too mild in Central around 5-7.c across most of London that doesn't mean that we won't see something wintry but realistically around here I'd expect it to start of as rain with temps dropping to around 2.c turning to wet snow.

You should put your height in your bio like most of us have, I assumed you were down in the valley.

I'm not saying you won't see lying snow but you have to take into account the modification from the sea, the uppers may be -7 during the bulk of the precipitation but that's more like -3/-4 once you take into account the modification hence the lack of warning from the Meto below 200m. It's not about the amount of PPN in this situation.

I think realistically the most you could expect is around 1-2cm tops, most likely for higher ground 150m+, but wouldn't rule out transient covering to low ground.

I'd be very cautious of the EURO4 snowfall accumulation chart it's very zealous. Colder uppers of - 7/-8 dig in around noon so inland areas should see snow falling, you'd need a streamer, trough or more organised spell of snow to see anything lying. The uppers aren't cold enough to allow snow to accumulate and stay between showers. I'd be weary of the onshore wind across NW England hampering the chance of falling snow as well. So a wintry day tomorrow, just hope you get stuck under something more persistent.

The GFS tends to overdo it on cold incursions from the NW so projected uppers of - 8 are more likely to be -5/-6 with the odd -7 thrown in which as the North Westerners know is unlikely to deliver. If you live about Manchester eastwards you should see some snow under any troughs or more organised precipitation. With a flow like this you can't rule out anything organised pushing well inland across Northern England and into the Midlands. Even for those who want snow the outlook away from the south is alot more interesting than of late. Wintry, with the potential for snow away from costal areas.

T141 shows Yorkshire getting a hammering. Nice to look at but too far out for now. The outlook is wintry but you really need to be around 150m+ to make use of these synoptics as the uppers aren't that cold, unless we get some sort of trough or slider etc which is likely at some point

T141 shows Yorkshire getting a hammering. Nice to look at but too far out for now. The outlook is wintry but you really need to be around 150m+ to make use of these synoptics as the uppers aren't that cold, unless we get some sort of trough or slider etc which is likely at some point.

The EURO4 precipitation accumulation charts after the front has cleared sums up the problem perfectly. Around 1mm for Leeds and 2mm for Sheffield, the rain shadow will stop us from seeing why meaningful PPN

Is this for Monday's front?

The only caveat is the front could stall over the UK, I don't think the track is sorted yet, the models keep pushing its westward ascent further east.

The GFS is overdoing the snow potential as it normally does for Monday evening, there is cross model agreement that the front will struggle to retain intensity over the pennines, a lack of intensity along with the uppers not undercutting quick enough is likely to result in transient back edge wet snow, I'd be very surprised if there is any lying snow on low ground, temporary accumulations over ground above 200m.

Doncaster area looks like the sweet spot, Leeds Bradford area looks like it's missed out on the heavier batch.

Looking at the temperature profiles it seems unlikely we'll see snow lying at low levels unless there is significant intensity to bring the temperature down.

Radar is looking interesting again especially for Sheffield

A flop for Leeds and Sheffield going by the radar though to be expected and in line with the warnings.

Had a look at the meto forecast for LBA and its showing light snow with several hours of heavy snow. The GFS is also showing a much more significant pulse of precipitation pushing through so could be something of interest.

ECM is going for 1-2cm quite widely so I wouldn't rule out a covering down to low levels. In the pennines its about 2-3 inches max but thats over the course of 24 hours around 300m+

The ECM and GFS both diminish the snowfall risk for Friday into Saturday. A mixed bag of rain sleet and snow, accumulations reserved for inland areas around 150-200m+ but even then the lack of intensity will likely hamper any covering, if the PPN was heavy it would be game on but for now its too fragmented.

Yeah I'm not seeing much of interest over the next seven days either.