Cheese Rice

I live on this road and during that snowfall we didn't see one gritter lol.

Thursday/Friday is starting to look good should pivot over South/West Yorks

Some of the main energy from the south west managed to clip Sheffield but looking at the radar that appears to be mostly it, another stronger echo may clip Sheffield again within the hour but other than that very much in line with the EURO4.

Looking closely at the radar it looks like a flop from Leeds to Sheffield, the main area over costal parts of NW England is starting to loose intensity and dissappear, the next area of energy is starting to form East of Leeds and Sheffield. So the radar is giving of the impression that there is lots to come out west but its definitely starting to wane. Thursday could well deliver but we'll see.

A nice chunk of green echoes over North Leeds currently.

It's in my location on the left but they are about 200m.

The valley also known to some on here as the Otley Gap is actually allowing precipitation to filter though over North Leeds. I'm in London but family are reporting snow, our house is actually a little north of the red dot so staying in the heavier echoes.

Euro4 accumulation chart sums up nicely, significant rain shadow, wintry mixture at best further east, rain to lower levels.

The GFS mantains the sweet spot as the North Midlands potentially into South Yorkshire. The center of the low is further south on this run but this isn't really reflected in the track of the precipitation. I'd say we won't have a clear idea till about Wednesday morning.

Meto UKV model for Tuesday showing the same as the EURO4, obvious rain shadow east of the pennines.

Another flop by the looks of it, Tuesday is unlikely to deliver in Central areas due to the rain shadow. Thursday is likely to miss the whole of Yorkshire now as well. At this rate we could be looking at a whole winter without lying snow.

The 18z ironically pushes snow cover further north than the 12z no lying snow for the far South

The icon isn't showing accumulating snow for the south on Thursday or much falling snow, snow confined in heaviest bursts but preceeded by rain and on the back edge rain. Metociel isn't a good source in determining precipitation type as the graphic overlays are lacking. I think realistically if there is a correction south then I'd expect a line somewhere around St Albans to Bristol northwards for lying snow, a wintry mixture further south for places like London.

ECM does have the front passing through us on Thursday but realistically I'd expect 2-5cm from that as it decays significantly across Yorkshire.

Haven't seen the country file forecast but doesn't surprise me tbh. I think it first started with the icon positioning of the low a bit too far south. We'll see.

Considering the disaster of this winter so far I wouldn't be taking in chances at this stage.

I'm a bit suspicious about Thursday coming off I think there'll be a big correction south but we'll see. Tuesday seems more likely even if its only an hour or two of snow.

Why do folks keep posting the ECM snow charts we all know they are useless. The model isn't high enough resolution to show true snow depths, it doesn't factor in modification from the sea, UHI, ground temps etc, all of which effect whether it'll even snow.

For what?

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday.

The angle of the incoming precipitation will likely result in only eastern areas receiving any sort of snowfall, central areas are likely to remain dry and any PPN reforms east of Leeds and Sheffield as it passes the pennines.

Yeah a few areas should wake up to a covering of snow tomorrow.

It's about 70% rain 30% snow maybe I live too central where the UHI is just too strong.

Plain old rain in Central.

It sleeted for a total of 2 minutes on Oxford Street lol. Not really worth waiting 8 months for.