Cheese Rice

ECM snow accumulation charts. Still time for change

Ironically it seems to be building back north over North Leeds.

This is why I could never live on low ground, these localised events that you usually see on high ground make a big difference in how you view the winter overall. Living in Cookridge your always guranteed one decent snowfall every winter.

Yes radar has really pepped up, could be an interesting night for South Yorkshire.

The depth of snow in north Leeds, must be a good 4-6 inches of snow judging by the dog In the snow.

P!ss poor warnings from the meto as usual. When it became clear late morning that this was going to be a significant event for certain areas a orange warning should have been released for Harrogate and surrounding areas.

Some significantly heavier ppn moving into north Leeds.

Elevation was key today. Ripon that has been under the heaviest echoes all day has seen a few cm's, the town is only 40m asl. Harrogate at 140m has seen alot more snow even though it wasn't always under the heaviest echoes.

I think the models have gotten the southern trajectory wrong. It most likely looking at the radar won't reach south Yorkshire. The models always showed the system stalling and fizzling out over South Yorkshire. The stall has instead happened 50 miles further north just above Harrogate. I don't expect any where that doesn't have lying snow to see snow now unfortunately. The sweet spot has been Harrogate for sure. Others areas like North Leeds on high ground have also done well. The scenes in Harrogate... https://www.instagram.com/p/CJyP2PzJSgB/?igshid=1wm42nclpughu

The model snow it very slowly sinking south. Expected to reach Sheffield and fizzle out by 9pm.

I'm in London so haven't got to experience this but the current scene in the garden in Leeds. VID-20210108-WA0002.mp4

I think Cookridge above 150m should be okay. Over the last ten years I've experienced similar similar setups to this, as a rule of thumb it needs to be snowing/sleeting in Leeds center for it to be settling in Cookridge. If it's raining in Leeds center and snowing in Cookridge then the snow won't be settling. In this instance I'm expecting sleet or snow in town and lying snow on high ground, the dividing line between lying snow is going to be the tricky one to forecast. It could be 150m or 250m.

Looking at all the charts I would agree with the met office on this, 2-5cm on high ground, low ground a mixture of rain, sleet and snow not amounting to a covering. It is possible that if we see heavy precipitation it could bring the freezing level down sufficiently to deliver temporary accumulations to lower levels (around 100m). I think the intensity is going to be the main issue in this scenario. It's going to be a miserable day for many areas of Yorkshire with a mixture of rain, sleet and at times wet snow lingering on throughout the day.

It's a number of factors however the overriding factor is the poor uppers. You wouldn't get snow lying in a NWly with these uppers either.

The uppers are mostly -7/-8 so I'm not surprised the outcome turned out the way it did. I said from the start it wasn't looking good, the Met Office didn't see any potential either, I think some on here are reading the charts wrong. We need uppers of around -12/-13 to see lying snow for costal areas and around -10/-11 inland in a showery easterly flow. There's some more significant ppn coming into Norfolk it's a shame we can't get anything like that further north.

Light rain at 2.c The worst easterly I've ever experienced.

We have uppers of -8/-9 and it's sleeting where I am at Leeds Bradford airport 200m asl.

This easterly is ultimately sourced from the Mediterranean not siberia so we aren't tapping into those really cold -13 uppers that you would get with a potent easterly.

So I needed to go back to Leeds for work and I could either go this week or next week. It made sense to go this week as it looks like there is zero snow potential for London unfortunately. I have a better chance in Leeds at 200m than central London at 0m. Hopefully the high ground areas in the south east see some snow falling.

The met office warnings are in line with what was showing over the last few days, It was always looking marginal, I'm not sure why so many on here were expecting lying snow. I think the issues is people on here look at just the 850's and call it a day, a showery flow with those 850's in March/April would be more conductive for snow due to higher lapse rates but not so much in January. Ideally you need minimum -10 if not lower. I still expect falling snow at most levels but similar to last week where accumulations on low ground are transient. If you get under a streamer that should bring freezing level down sufficiently for something decent.

I've just read the NW thread and Kassim who seems to be an expert put this.. 'Whilst largely a 200m+ shower event otherwise, The streamer Tuesday AM is embedded in -7.5 uppers & so produces a base snow line of 175m, therefore a temporary covering down to 100m in East Manchester, etc is possible. Further west depends on streamer strength & timing. Above 200m in the Peaks this may be a fairly significant macro event."

I know alot of people look poorly on the automated forecasts as did I at one point but they are actually no different than looking at any high resolution model. It's the same as putting in your location into a higher res mode like the NMM or EURO4 and it just showing localised data. They're actually a very useful tool.

The localised forecasts show it'll still be a marginal affair. I think most places will see falling snow but it'll be similar to the last few days.

Yes the short term does appear to have upgraded with uppers firmly in the -8/-9 category, whether that'll be enough for costal areas I'm not too sure. In the mid term the synoptics aren't looking favourable so I would definitely make the most of the next few days. I'm hopeful we'll see a frontal snowfall event at some point. Leeds always does well from those scenarios, I tend to favour them from showery flows as your guranteed a good dumping of snow.

What's holding me going back to Leeds for an extended period of time is that the upper air is really not that cold. While it's true that inland areas of Yorkshire have gotten lucky with snow it's mostly marginal relying on evaporating cooling. The current synoptics just aren't going to cut it for low lying areas and there isn't much to suggest any more than 1-3cm of snow even for high ground, in the form of hit and miss showers. The -10 850's easterly is what we are after for it to be memorable, -5/-6 850's just won't cut it.