Cheese Rice

Significant upgrade in the intensity of the precipitation on the met office model. This could bring the snow level down even further

All rain now even Bingley at 280m asl is reporting rain at 0.c.

Sleet at 200m at Leeds Bradford Airport.

The forecast I posted from the Met Office is for the hills which provides more in depth and technical information ie freezing levels.

Met office forecast for Thursday "A cold day with extensive low cloud. Outbreaks of rain overnight, turning to snow down to about 200 or 300m in the early hours. The snow may turn heavy for a couple of hours in the morning, becoming light and patchy in the afternoon, then dying out in the evening."

I would take those with a pinch of salt they are based on models not data from weather stations.

I'm not quite sure why a difference of opinion is seen in this way. Please don't engage with my posts going forward, I will not engage with your posts either. Thank-you

@Kasim Awan Looking at my previous posts regarding this we are most likely singing from the same hymn sheet. ie accumulations at around 120m+ entirely possible. I don't see how with a lack of meaningful perciptation shown during the window of opportunity between 8-12 we'll see lying snow on low ground.

There's a brief 4 hour period of opportunity between 8am-12 where the front joins and intensity increases. After 12 the front is well on its way out of Yorkshire. I'm not seeing anything significant for low lying areas currently.

That applies in every and any situation where freezing level drops faster under heavier perciptation. It's still a favoured high ground setup as per the met office warning sorry to say. Hopefully low lying areas see some lying snow.

Just to clarify your implying that it could be rain on high ground and at the bottom of the hill under heavier ppn it would be snowing? I don't see how in any situation the odds would favour low ground for snowfall, it would always favour high ground first.

It's pretty clear looking at the models that there is going to be a notable rain shadow east of the pennines with the bulk of the heavier precipitation skirting the south and west of the region. Met office high resolution model highlights this nicely. Along with the GFS It's all well and good highlighting the freezing level dropping under heavier precipitation and that will still happen, but to expect lying snow at sea level is unlikely without any meaningful intensity.

An upgrade on the Met Office for high ground areas around 200m.

Only goes out to 3am

Latest Met office chart for 3am Thursday Freezing line remains in the pennines.

Completely different setup, the uppers in a slack flow were eligible for snowfall, at the time the modification from the north sea was expected to be stronger hence why you saw a a few of cm's of snow.

The warning states lower levels, relative to 200m so you can decide what constitutes lower levels but it is not low ground ie 0m asl. I think your interpreting the warning wrong.

Just to reiterate this is the met office warning "Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow." 5-10cm above 200m possible with most lower lying areas seeing rain or sleet. Perhaps a few cm's to lower levels but that's not low ground that's more 120m+.

The front has left Yorkshire by 6pm so we are relying on day time evaporating cooling.

There could be 2-5 cm of wet snow at these elevations but we'll see.

9pm Wednesday, by this time we are talking 9 hours into the front rain throughout. Back edge snow seems the main risk but you can't rule out areas North Leeds further north on high ground seeing something.

9 hours into the front this is where we are projected by the met office own high res model. Freezing levels only on the pennines with most of Yorkshire around 1-3.c. I'm still expecting snow on the back edge but it's hard to pin point what accumulations would come from that, very now cast.

Hmmmm I'm edging towers high ground Leeds northwards. Eventually turning to snow on it's back edge. Definitely a close but no cigar type of event

I reckon it'll be 2-5cm with localised 5-10cm, both on ground above 150m. Maybe the odd transient covering to low ground. The real accumulation likely above 300m which cuts out urban areas and will likely result in no upgrades to the warning, ie no amber warning.

Looking at the charts I have a bad feeling for South Yorkshire that they'll see rain. It could be an unusual event where York is buried in snow while in Sheffield it's raining.