Cheese Rice
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The models seem to be firming up on a streamer south of Sheffield, the flow is at a slight NE'ly which is why places that got lucky in 2010 might miss out this time. Potential for a bit of a shadow between Leeds and Sheffield where accumulations may not be as significant. This doesn't mean this area won't see lying snow just maybe in the lower bracket.
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I think we should air on the side of caution for next week and not have too high expectations. The met office is going for a cloudy flow, which would hamper convection for Monday and Tuesday. As time goes on the flow should become more showery but we'll see. Saturday is up in the air. EURO4 shows the heaviest precipitation clipping the south of the region, the higher resolution NMM is similar to that as well.
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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
Cheese Rice replied to cheshire snow's topic in Regional
Not to be a debbie downer but I wouldn't expect their to be even transient snow for most of the North West. Freezing levels aren't even close to conductive for snow, even the hills away from the purple shades would see rain. -
Hello, has there been a data system breach on NW? I received this just now when logging in from Google.
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It's really on a knife edge. Uppers not getting any colder than -1, hovering between 0 and -1. Freezing level around 100m. South Yorkshire should be fine, I'd expect widespread accumulations of around 5cm to lower levels. The snow will be quite wet but the intensity should mean we'll see decent snow coverage.
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Hmmmm I think realistically the most we can expect is a period of frontal snow turning to rain/sleet on the back edge. The further north you are the higher the chances of it staying as snow throughout with the highest accumulations north of Yorkshire as per the meto warning for Wednesday. Sweet spot in this region looks to be from North Leeds to Harrogate northwards over high ground (a bit of a running theme this winter).