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keithlucky

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by keithlucky

    28 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

    I do love some of these charts though all taken with a pinch of salt. Again like in winter I think you'd have to be away from the coast with a little elevation for any snow next week, it takes something quite special to get snow on the coast here this time of year.

    I'm off to Manchester next Friday so hoping I can see some snow up there next weekend lol.

    Plenty of snow around event stratospheric warming exceptional event not standard weather.

    • Thanks 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by keithlucky

    1 hour ago, snefnug said:

    Dry cold yeuch, it’s cold enough now.  But I suppose it might come from low to north east running down across country or, better for  Wales, low to south west coming up and meeting the cold and us in the ‘battleground’ area. Guess we have to wait and see.  Keep toys and towels close by, you might need them for extra heating.  Just had my latest leccy bill and shelled out for oil and ouch, roll on Spring is all I can whimper.

    Not dry Monday according to netweather. Front pushes down from the North ,Front tries to push in from the Swest plenty of snow showers around in between.

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Text, Machine, Wheel

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by keithlucky

    Yes they believe every run I spouting on about strat Warming since beginning of February like a stuck record. They been crying one day cheering the next lol. I have seen that the strat warming is predicted but they can't get the timing right yet.We have seen the polar votex spilt 2 in the USA met been accurate  10 days in advance!! Predicting  severe cold 2 correctly.

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by keithlucky

    1 hour ago, Wosser said:

    Hi if I look at the 10 day forecast for my area it shows colder but dryer , why do these charts show something different ? Thanks 

    Because strat warming which model outputs doesn't understand the second warming is drivering cold upper air downwards .The down dwelling  taken over causing wind reversal to a N easterly occurs.Showers developing over warm waters driving showers across UK.Then fronts run into Wales from the S Wales.

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    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Not being funny but people have been having a pop at both the GFS and the Met Office all winter and now...

    FWIW I'm backing cold to win the day next month (not that I want it to) but I've got to question some of the reasoning

    The Met Office cannot ignore stratospheric warming we seen what this has caused winter storms in the USA,The USA Met picked winter storm 10 days in advance. Same here..

    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Fair point, well presented.  Let’s enjoy what unfolds 

     

    BFTP

     

    2 minutes ago, LRD said:

    You think GFS is 'leading the way'. I don't. In fact, if the tables were turned and GFS was showing what ECM was and vice versa, you'd be saying "ECM, leading the way"

    Although I think it will get chilly in March there is no reason, at the moment, to believe the GFS is 'leading the way'

    The reason to back the GfS it's it falls in line with Met Office forecast  

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 3
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