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Big Innes Madori

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Posts posted by Big Innes Madori

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 16/03/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

    Splendidly unpredictable weather on Islay, everything from haar to a brief near gale this morning, blue sun to lashing rain. We love it. Crap broadband means shrunk and compressed pix: this was Sunday afternoon as the haar cleared (mostly) briefly

    reflection1.thumb.jpg.9fc3da75c38f33d5179df45c965a4e3a.jpg

    and this was this evening - I was watching the sunset with my sister, then we turned round to see this! 5acd2304b6e44_houseonfire.thumb.jpg.768c6027b7bc48c3f5559dee4372aa87.jpg

    My eldest daughter, son in law and grandson are on holiday on Islay this week! ?

    Big Innes

    • Like 1

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Stormeh said:

    I was in Aldi earlier and I wasn’t surprised to see that there was still no bread and milk. It doesn’t bother me but what did annoy me  was some people were shaking their heads and moaning to staff as if their life was over because they can’t get milk or bread. Get over it for god sake, can’t people survive a few days without it? The roads have been badly affected due to the snow over the last few days so what to people expect? Some people are so selfish, why don’t they think of the poor people in other countries with no food or water. Sorry for my wee rant but some people get on my nerves plus I have had a wee drink tonight so it makes me feel worse when I think about it :wallbash::drunk-emoji:

    Ouch!

    I get your point stormeh and agree with your point about people being nasty to store staff when the cannot get Bread and Milk in particular.

    Rural communities like our villages, may only have one wee shop to serve 1500 / 2000 or so people including the farmers and folks with wee properties outlying. There are many Old folks and families with young children and bread and milk can be a big part of their essentials.

    On Friday my son in-law and I along with three other guys trudged for 3.5 hrs through mostly waist deep sometimes head high snaw to get to the chemists in Oakley to collect prescriptions for Mrs Big Innes and many others in the villagers and also to see if there was, yes bread and milk but it was all sold out by that time. Older folks may only survive on tea and toast and need to have hot drinks in these colder spells!

    Sorry Stormeh, that's my rant over.

    Big Innes

     

    • Like 3
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Big Innes Madori

    Some pics of the local roads up till today some copied from friends!

    Aching noo from digging oot the past four days and our community cannot thank the local farmers enough for working tirelessly trying to open the roads in these parts with their tractors and diggers.

    The local shop was out of the essentials and when we eventually got one route open to Kelty M90 today and got down to Asda at Halbeath, to try to get some supplies for ourselves and neighbours, they had no Fkn bread or milk as all the Townies had been panic buying the past few days???

    Big Innes

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    • Like 21

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, edo said:

    How the f00k can Motherwell have more snow than me

    No offence Motherwell

    Euro 4 looks good to end of Thursday but yet to get going here....still was not even supposed to get proper snow till early hours of tomorrow so keeping the faith before chucking the toys oot

     

    But mother f00king well

    Fae an easterly

    Taking the pi55

     

    Ouch Edo

    Noo that's pure rippin it right oot ye mate! ?

    Big Innes

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

    Decided just to bite the bullet and get it out there.....here are your snowfall totals through until the end of Wednesday only. Again apologies to newer or returning members not on the list, nothing personal, these are just the folk/locations I’m most familiar with. Particularly nervous about the Moray Firth and hope I have badly underestimated. All just for fun, of course and good luck, I hope we all see plentiful snow! :)

    @aggy Trace/dusting (sorry pal, heart says yes, head says no)

    @edo 18cm

    @Stormeh 15cm

    @Ravelin 22cm

    @Blitzen 22cm

    @Norrance 20cm

    @Ruzzi 25cm

    @snowidea 17cm

    @101_North 20cm

    @CatchMyDrift 23cm

    @Hairy Celt 3cm (very nervous about this, hope I’m way out)

    @scottish skier 26cm

    @GraemeB 13cm

    @moffatross 10cm

    @snowy owl 16cm

    @mardatha 30cm

    @mistyqueen None (sorry, compadre)

    @grifter 10cm

    @Northernlights 5cm (as with HC, may be way out)

    @Northern Strath 25cm

    @NorthernRab 6cm (again, hope I’m wrong in the right way)

    @Benvironment 32cm (good luck measuring it)

    @Polar Gael 15cm

    @shuggee 25cm

    @Cheggers 24cm

    @NUT 22cm

    @Kayemill 6cm

    @Big Innes Madori 25cm

    @DR(S)NO 2 cm

    @ghoneym 15cm

    @Mr Frost 5-20cm (not exactly sure where you live mate, so hedging my bets!)

    @ciel 20cm

    @howham 17cm

    @igloo 7cm

    @Spindrift2017 14cm

    @Mandy Langlands 10cm

    @Paul Martin 14cm

    @LomondSnowstorm (Freuchie) 20cm

    and

    @Hawesy (after careful consideration)....8cm

     

    Eh, this lot is coming across Europe Hawesy, so ye'll need tae add VAT tae those Totals :D

     

    Big Innes

    • Like 1

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Frazd103 said:

    Ok, so nobody knows where I work, what I do, I know that, but if I was to say through that occupation I maybe sometimes, in exceptional circumstances, when it may affect my work, etc, be party to advance warnings of exceptional weather and impact of such. Just a wee nerve settler for ye all.

     

    Does yer job title / occupation have ice in the word ?

    Big Innes

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    ECM1-120.thumb.gif.62c4e16cf2db0bf3df59a20c5aac185e.gif h850t850eu.thumb.png.62d0fcebef921d53611442a183bbdd55.png

    Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty much due east at surface level, and this is the point in the dream where a younger me would've woken up because it's far too good to be true. This time though, it's entirely real - we're now within 5 days of this chart, and within 4 days of a still very snowy looking chart that wouldn't look out of place in November/December 2010:

    5a90a16eba838_2318z.thumb.png.92002ce53e5e70bc65abcb07af462fd5.png ECM1-96.thumb.gif.429ad52090c95bb36802eadc48b3479a.gif

     

    For comparison: 

    archives-2010-12-2-0-0.thumb.png.b62a637f62cc6eb8ba2d6bc1df49cc91.png

    Now there's a few differences, of course, between that spell and this one. For a start the cold pool in this instance is deeper - we don't know if the -15C uppers will verify but it certainly hasn't diminished to this point and is at least as strong as what was forecast a week ago. The thing that tempers this slightly is that the heights are slightly higher, at least initially - the Warm Air Advection which will deliver this Siberian Arctic beast is going quite literally over our heads in the next 48 hours: ECE1-48.gif.thumb.png.a77d895e79b6fc3fbc503b64d2f9e156.png

    This gives us a much 'cleaner' flow than in 2010 but it still amazes me that we've got down to this point given the tendency of such long track easterlies to either erode away to nothing or plough southwards into the heart of central Europe instead, with us being left in an southeasterly drift with barely a snow grain to show for it. 

    However, once we get the cold pool in place with the deepest cold at our latitude or a bit to the south, the situation becomes incredibly favourable for snow - with such an impressive block in place the jet becomes out friend, strengthening the easterly flow and, along with troughs and 'kinks' (more on these tomorrow), increasing the snow risk. The GFS tonight highlights the risk of these by the end of the weekend, as you end up with a very deep low which no longer advects cold along its northern edge:

    gfs-0-192.png?18


    Worrying about the breakdown at this stage is silly when you're staring straight in the face at an incredible spell, but I will come back to the tendency that the models have in general to be 'overprogressive' in their thinking - this spell, while not any less spectacular than on the wildest Fantasy Island runs, has had the odd delay relative to what the models were showing at points, so if I had to bet I would suggest that it's more likely that we'll end up with a continuation of 'easily cold enough for snow' synoptics into the start of next week than not. By that point, however, we might be scunnered of the stuff...

    As for the details, the basic rule of thumb with easterlies, which has served us pretty well in this forum over the years, is the models tend to underestimate precipitation. The last time we had an easterly of note the range of publicly available mesoscale models wasn't what it is now, so I'm prepared to give them a little bit of benefit of the doubt this time round, but since we're not into the 48 hour range all we have to go off from their output are the snippets from either the Met Office website or the ECM's output on yr.no.  

    For fun, though, these are the 'final' snow totals on the latest GFS which look fairly similar I think to the 12Z's output:

    186-780UK.thumb.gif.5565a306c01cfd5182563affa8aaf6a2.gif

    There's no particular reason to think this is overdone - temperatures throughout to this point are likely to struggle to get above 0C even near the coast through the day from Tuesday onwards, and while there might the odd 'feature' which disrupts the flow of absurdly cold air all that would do would be to enhance precipitation. These along would be shovel-worthy for those of us on the east coast and, whisper it, there's good reason to think that the actual result will be even snowier than this IF the severity and placement of the cold pool ends up where the model consensus currently is.

     

    I'm going to go into more detail on what to look out for tomorrow in terms of timing, mesoscale features, what sorts of areas might be worst hit (due east is a promising direction for the Forth-Clyde streamer...), but that's my teaser for tonight:cold:

     

    A pure Blizzard O' a post LS ?

    Welcome back 

    Big Innes

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Big Innes Madori

    11 hours ago, edo said:

    has @More Snow really abandomed us because of the model thread

     

    cmom more snow return ye cannae move up here for snaw then abandon yer snow buddies

     

    think we should start taking it in turns to buy 101 plame tickets to get him oot rhe country and help our snow chances

    Eh, was More Snow no the 2016 Central England Hide & Seek Champion?:friends:

    Fk sake, we'll nivir fund um :nea:

    A' right then Mair Snaw come oot,  wi gie up noo! :cc_confused:

     

    Big Innes :D

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