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Grimsby Snow Lover

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Everything posted by Grimsby Snow Lover

  1. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Hi and welcome! I would say that the front is pretty much nailed now, what is still uncertain is the exact timing. Whether it snows, sleets or rains will depend on dew points, air temps etc on the day which will need watching much nearer the time.
  2. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Well according to this map areas in the west could do quite well tonight. Still nothing here but the temperature is slowly decreasing. Currently 2.5 with dew temp of -0.3 https://twitter.com/WeatherCast_UK/status/300639571161542656/photo/1
  3. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Temperature -0.5 here. Not expecting much tomorrow to be honest, looks very marginal away from higher ground in the west of our region. Are the showers on Mon/Tue looking beefy ones? Thanks GSL
  4. Grimsby Snow Lover
    The way I see things is that the BBC/Met are going by their own output which has been corrected by their experts. The GFS has already been described as a mild outlier against its own member which is possible why it doesn't show the snow potential for Sunday/Monday. My best advice would be stick with the met/bbc over the next few days and look out for some of Ian Ferguson's posts as these will be more accurate I believe.
  5. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Ian's latest posts. Is this what you was refering to? Key thing perhaps being overlooked in some MOD thread discussion is nocturnal chilling of boundary layer versus what 850's show per se. RegIonal modelling of lowest boundary layer currently beyond reliable scope of GM models for Sun night. Latest modified GM for 12z Sun. Compare to FAX. Takes ensemble mean position. Note rain-snow discrimination thro Somerset etc is clearly clearly not to be taken literally at this range. Shorter sea track further E on S Coast enhances snow potential, as per event in Jan.
  6. Grimsby Snow Lover
    What is quite positive though in my book is that the colder air is modelled to shift east in around 7 days time, which in weather terms is not that reliable. As during the previous cold spell we could quite easily see the cold hanging on for a day or two longer. On the other hand the milder uppers could move in sooner. The point I'm trying to make is that what will happen in 7 days time is very likely to change between now and then.
  7. Grimsby Snow Lover
    ...and Lincolnshire I hope
  8. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Try this link, worked for me http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
  9. Grimsby Snow Lover
    We have had plenty of sleety/wet snow showers throughout the day here, nothing too exciting as the air temperature and dew point has been well above freezing. I was hoping the northerly wind would be a cold one but with a top temperature of 4 I would hardly call that cold. Not expecting any lying snow here until the colder air, if any arrives over the next few days. Is Sunday still looking good for snow for our region or has that altered? Thanks GSL
  10. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Might be a little marginal to lower levels/around coasts but should be fine for the bulk of the UK. But as you said there are many other factors that need to be correct for snowfall too.
  11. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Just a dusting here in Grimsby as it would seem most of the showers over night were further south.
  12. Grimsby Snow Lover
    It has done the same here too, but not quite to the same degree. Temperature was 4c, currently just over 2c.
  13. Grimsby Snow Lover
    I think this has just reached here. Really heavy hail/snow with most surfaces getting a slushy covering!
  14. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Does this help? Quote Longer term, MOGREPS stays consistent in ushering-in a broadly W'rly regime into 10-15d period or indeed earlier, as the block gets shunted-away further east. Weekend into early next week still uncertain re transition and longevity of the block, but signal in MOGREPS and EC EPS (which goes for an unbiased southerly into trend 10-15d period) all aid with broad notion of colder block being superceded after a few days. Anyway, much uncertainty for now - watch this space.
  15. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Not sure what to expect here tonight. Mr Hudson mentioned concentration of showers across Peak district central Lincolnshire, but he did say this could be further north/south. Just out of interest what are the prospects for this area for Wednesday/Thursday? Thanks GSL
  16. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Well into FI territory I know but just look at uppers for next weekend! The -10 is in touching distance of the UK!! I have been comparing the GFS run with the ECM run from earlier and they are very similar up to 168hrs which is well out beyond the reliable. The bonus is the GFS has sided towards tonight ECM, lets just hope the consistency of the ECM remains in future runs with the GFS, UKMO and other models following suite. http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png
  17. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Is that hmmmmm in a good way or a bad way? Thanks GSL
  18. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Having viewed the updated fax charts they did show troughs in the flow which could deliver more widespread snow showers. These things will change and it will probably come down to now casting and looking at the radar. I do agree with what you say but in this type of setup surprises do happen.
  19. Grimsby Snow Lover
    I think he is refering to the GFS showing the easterly as shown by the ECM.
  20. Grimsby Snow Lover
    I see your point, it would seem the almighty MOGREPS is what they are waiting for. Wouldn't it be great if we all could have access to it.
  21. Grimsby Snow Lover
    As much as I could love them to be wrong I would say that would be unlikely considering all the extra data they will have access to compared with us. At least next week is looking cold and seasonal with some snow around, beats the wet and mild weather of the past 7 days.
  22. Grimsby Snow Lover
    As far as I know they are Ian Ferguson and Matt Hugo Steve.
  23. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Had the ECM not have shown us those great charts a lot on here would be saying that a chart like this from the GFS at this time scale holds a lot of potential.it certainly has altered its tune recently. During the last cold spell the pattern shown by the GFS progressed westwards with nearly every run. A similar thing has happened today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png
  24. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Regarding the ENS mean I think that is why we need to be extremely careful not to get over excited at this point even if the ECM produces a stella run as it did tonight. Until the metoffice/Ian Ferguson/Matt Hugo suggest other whys I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground. Wouldn't it be great if it verified though?
  25. Grimsby Snow Lover
    Those NNE winds should help push snow showers further in land compared with a straight northerly. Looking forward to this week.
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