Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posts posted by Severe Siberian icy blast
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10 minutes ago, Jordan S said:
Oh dear not the best post I did on Thursdays low, could graze the south but looks to go into northern France but that means it will be a colder day on Thursday with a disturbance moving southwest over eastern and possibly southern areas bringing snow showers inland, significant frosts either way.plenty of snow showers in the northeast for a time..
more snow chances further south and west and to be honest overall almost anywhere over the UK with the slow breakdown into the second week of December which still looks most likely, So plenty for cold lovers to be happy about.
Still most likely to turn unsettled or very unsettled and milder around mid month for a few days around mid December, but cold probably follows not so long after with snow risk increasing again for many atm.
What makes you say mild air wins so confidently around mid month ?
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32 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Great that all the cold will be but if we don’t get snow it will be a massive waste, with low pressure to the south and high to the north surely there will be some decent showers in the flow. IMO it’s only an upgrade if it brings the white stuff in. I hear this upgrade/downgrade word used far to much
Mark you silly much older brother of mine its because it builds dense cold in the right places and having high pressure in high latitudes so early on is going to do wonders for us moving forward in regards the pv never setting up shop in it's home properly which then has further knock on effects regarding a possible SSW event.
You walked straight into that one bro
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44 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
UKMO 850's at 96 / 120 / 144
A definite improving trend. It goes without saying it would be nice to have the ECM on board later
Have to say the days 5&6 look very cold we have cold building to the north/northeast, with lower dam levels widely, and a hint at deeper uppers pushing further southwest, more instability,
Even fri and now sat looks like it could be snowier and the build up of cold to our neighbors is looking fantastic for so early on in the season its gonna put some theories of a build of stubborn cold encourages scandi high pressure to the test thats for sure.
Edit not sure what the disagreement is tbh if one can enlightened me its all a learning curv after all?!
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38 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Hard to believe that most of the UK only has a slight chance of barely scrape a dusting by the weekend from these synoptics but that looks to be the case as it stands.
But this is the thing, as it stands, do you remember how dry December 2010 was meant to be!
We only have a short window but Thursday night and more so Friday i wouldn't be surprised to see little features get picked up later today or throughout tomorrow to bring abit more instability.
If not then its onwards and upwards look north north/east for a shift east of the high pressure towards scandi maybe
Edit: wedges over scandi and with Euro troughing shows my thoughts
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Where would i find the AI forecasts please?
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I have to admit im becoming very interested in what a week ago or so was little more than a brief snap with the expectancy of what was already a record breaking PV high up to filter down into what ultimately would become a stormy December,
The weather makes us all eat the egg but isn't it fascinating how it seemingly makes its own mind up some of the time and its only with the Wonderful aid of hindsite we look back and make sense as to how it came about its a forever learning curv,
We have a tripol which seems to have came out of nowhere?
A very amplified jet stream curving back on itself through the UK.
And to be honest we could be looking at 4 wave pattern which will mean it could be either very rewarding or very frustrating but a very slow moving locked in pattern could become apparent and the Canadian warming that's also come through the back door
is going to become a major player along with where segments of vortex' become established, this will be a stand of between spawning areas of low pressure off it interacting with high pressure features pushing and giving off one another, and this could be exciting!
We need a cold winter
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53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
It's not a horror show for cold.
This is a horror show for cold
Haha that's funny, a Bartlett high combining with southern europe how fun
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27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
You're confusing climate change with man-made climate change. The former has been happening forever, the latter since the industrial revolution.
Human input into man made pollution into the atmosphere is 11% of 0.4% (all damaging current pollution/damage) that's the real figures.
Will try and find the video which was quite brief so doable
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
Yes. Can't argue with that logic. But it is worth considering that CC has increased severe rainfall events and that means that when - and it will be when not if - we get a scenario where atlantic moisture undercuts continental cold sufficient to bring the white stuff down we could end up with more snowfall than in similar past events. This is what maintains the value of The Chase - we know we are seeing and will continue to see fewer snowfall events away from high ground....but the chances of an extreme snowfall event within a smaller numerical envelope is increasing. See 2018 in some parts. That was 5 years ago. About time the dice rolled kindly again.
Climate change has been happening forever time, global warming however is a load of nonsense, and severe weather has also been happening for centuries, i think its more the narrative we get pushed down our throats that's got people thinking such things as above.
1947(feb)
1963
1977
1979
1983
1990/91
1995
2009
2010
2013
2018
These are just winters.
Also from memory so may off the odd year or so but certainly since 83 (dob) iv saw many bad winters.
Dry patch from 90's to 2008/9 but then we had a concession of bad winters.
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I'm pretty sure the distinct line forming over southwest areas pushing north east
is meant to develop into a squall line of sorts delivering thunder as it passes as it moves into warmer air
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6 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:
This image from the V4 shows a broad shot of the current situation, showing low level sheer
Look where the strongest echoes are
and the reason I've put another pot of coffee on
Is convective wind sheer if so your anticipation is rapidly developing heavy ppn possibly thundery ?
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3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
The precipitation east of us on the radar with the easterly winds and energy is pepping up our precipitation over us….I’ve seen this set up so many times in the past
I was actually thinking about the wave of energy that's the main reason for this reinvigorated ppn, a wave along the low creates instability,
I think things are about to get good, I have gentle big flakes it's changed within the last half hr it's building around us
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In two images alone In the space of 5 minutes you can already see the gaps filling in, trust guys it's gonna get interesting!!!!
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10 minutes ago, Serendipity said:
Looks like it is about to clear here, I wonder if it will now thaw? Everything has a good covering.
How many times lol this isn't it we have the long wobbly low pressure directly over us, it's past us for now but things will develop now between now and 10pm you can already see another batch developing toward Wilshire and another one in Wales it will all merge together I think, about 70% certain let's see
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1 minute ago, tom_f123 said:
The stuff over south wales has lost intensity big time, don’t see a whole lot coming from that for the west mids
Hope I’m wrong
It's an already existing area of low pressure,that's wobbling and waving along the low, it's expected to expand as we move into the evening.
Remember not every area of ppn has to come from somewhere, it can develop immediately above us
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16 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
If you watch the radar, even the stuff coming in from Wales is losing its intestiy now. Been nice to see the snow but a little disappointed to not get any accumulations at all.
ARe you moaning already ? Give it a chance it's growing rapidly
20 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:Seen more snow on a wetherspoons toilet roll dispenser so far.
I have know idea what you mean mate!!!
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8 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:
Seen more snow on a wetherspoons toilet roll dispenser so far.
I have know idea what you mean mate!!!
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1 minute ago, Serendipity said:
we do! Small world...
Every single time I'm in there now I'm going to be wondering who you are! I'm the most unlikely weather nut too!
I normally get In there for footie or play pool,
I also go in there quite often with my kids on wkends, they're only young but I have a meal on a Sunday with them in there at times! We may know each other!! How scary is that lol
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On a side note who would of thought this decaying initial front from last night has reached the southern most parts of the Yorkshire moors, it wasn't meant to get further than Gloucester!
1 minute ago, Serendipity said:Trying to be optimistic here too (just down the road from you in Tiddington).
Oh really?! Yes I lived in Cotswolds for ages with my now x wife! Had great snow up there,
I was only in the crown the other night too! Do you get in there ?
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You can see it taking shape toward the southwest as I mentioned earlier but last 30 min or so it's building in size and strength, I'm very low where I am but still hoping, if we can get it from 5pm onwards it's game on but I think for low areas before that it's a know goer.
Brum will do well out of it though
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8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Yeh ukv looks out of sync right now!!!!it had a big gap over us this afternoon with the heavier stuff incoming from wales from 3pm but i cant really see anything exciting wales way!!all the heavy stuff is over us right now lol!!
Erm Shaikhy your funny!
Mate it's about right atm, the heavier stuff you can see moving from southern island stretching a finger out toward south Wales it will come up the estuary this afternoon and begin to organise.
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
the shaded area should be snow because it’s heavier and that brings the freezing level down because of evaporative cooling. But it doesn’t drop the surface temps and without very heavy bursts it’s unlikely to lie to any extent. Behind the heavier band it will turn drizzly again
Well you say that but surface temps can be directly effected by evaporative cooling, it cools the air around the droplets hence causing air to cool, but once the ppn moves off then under cloud cover unfortunately it will rise slightly.
I think areas like bham will do well, higher ground, but for me I think a slush fest but I hope I'm wrong
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1 minute ago, Stuie said:
As much as folks are looking at corrections South, keep in mind:
Wet bulb freezing level
At least -6 850`s
Look at instability - Theta
You won't need 850's that low for frontal snow.
March or not
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2 hours ago, Nick F said:
So, next week: for the south, a few cold, dry and bright days before turning wet and windy on Friday. For the north, cold and dry for many inland, snow showers around coasts and perhaps occasionally inland too, then snow event Friday
(Caveat - could still change for better re: snow for the south
Well this sounds about the worst news of the evening
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well iv always loved a good chase why not! Normally ends up going knowhere just like my relationships but if she flutters her eyes at me i may just have to buy you a drink and get led up yet another garden path with know front door to get in with!!!