Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posts posted by Severe Siberian icy blast
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3 minutes ago, moorlander said:
Have had a pleasant night shift watching it snow very light stuff blowing all over the place.
still think there is more to come via streamers probably waiting until just before rush hourby which time i'll be at home with a brew and sausage bap
That sounds bloody lovely
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15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Well have to see then mate i hope im wrong for you but if you look at this mornings models and look at the amber warning issued and look at the radar it could be a struggle for areas outside the amber warning. Where do you live im guessing not warwickshire?
I want all to hit snow i love it but i just dont see north and west yorkshire topping 5cms its trended south now
Also if you live warwickshire the change will hardly effect you its the northern extent of heavy snow sent south.
They should blow to you but wont be as heavy as they are in the amber.
Your lucky if your in that amber its a very small area for heavy organised snow
If u look the last few frames I'd deffo say its picking up now.
In all honesty I do live in Warwickshire still lol but I was in your thread last night and woke up to it pinging this morning lol, so i just get involved lol especially when it corms to weather lol..
I'm actually in the streamer going through Peterborough into Warwickshire atm which strangely the stuff to the south is beginning to interact with it a bit. Wondering if il have an updated warning here soon as it's certainly a streamer just not sure it Warren's an Amber warning yet, the thickness values drop now between hear and 6am so I think the north sea will become alive then
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4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Amber warning for south yorkshire and lincolnshire.
Convergence due to set up 6am - 2pm guys
If your in Leeds or anywhere too far north the oz looks like 5cm maximum now its become a bust with no snow tuesday or wednesday either which is madness after what was showing 2 days ago
I think your jumping the gun scot. Let this play out. It was only at 12am I was looking at updated charts offering 15cm widely now your telling me 4 hours later and all the models have dropped the activity?
And if so then does that show how fickle they are anyway and as always it's a now cast
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28 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Its looking likely looking at the latest models quite possibly looks like one branch goes through leeds one through lincoln a dry gap south yorkshire until 5am while 7am then a large dry gap till 11am and the most organised stream then mid day till 7pm mate. The level if convection is no where near what was predicted!
The latest models have reduced the shower activity have they?
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22 hours ago, fazzafarrand said:
Yes born and bred Stretford moved to Normanton nearly 19 years as ago
Good man what a waste though!
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There's some strong streamers moving towards the east coast off the coast near Amsterdam,
The next few hours will be interesting
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19 minutes ago, Georgina said:
I’m sorry but that loop you’ve drawn looks rude made me chuckle
Leave your mind in your room it's filth
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12 minutes ago, Gustywind said:
Nothing forecasted for Brum/West Mids till tomorrow morning, so not expecting anything till then.
That's not correct at all
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52 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:
GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!
Can anyone honestly remember the last time if at all Poland had 850's of - 28?
@john Holmes?
@chino?
1963?
1947?
It's genuine unmodified polar air and that will come with a danger to life warning
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54 minutes ago, Gustywind said:
Tomorrow looks amazing on Beeb forecast this morning, snow on & off all day starting in the early hours & affecting pretty much the whole region!
I watched breakfast this morning and we had streamers upon streamers, looked intense then she said we will have as much if not more from the showers over night into tomoz than what we would see in the southeast today. That made me very excited like a pathetic 9 year old little girl
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7 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:
Didn’t take long to cover most surfaces
I hope your a united fan lad
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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Its this warm front the problem for us, creates the frontal shield, main front is well east
Now casting situ, the last few events have been handled terribly
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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far! Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...
Tbh short term it's best to look at high res when picking out shower activity and troughs,
Ecm rules many mid term and frontal activity but im sure the potential this wk has troughs and streamers written all over it
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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far! Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...
Tbh short term it's best to look at high res when picking out shower activity and troughs,
Ecm rules many mid term and frontal activity but im sure the potential this wk has troughs and streamers written all over it
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53 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:
There was absolutely zero snow here last weekend mate, certainly not what was being shown/discussed at the time we were talking about it.
I'm sure there will be the odd shower that makes it here and a couple of places will receive a coating, but it's really not worth all the hype/discussion/effort/energy that's been put into this entire spell.
For me, I'm just looking at a snowy breakdown now. If we can squeeze a trough or front in the mean time, fantastic.
Even 2010 wasn't great here - our best and most productive set up are battleground events.
I agree the hype that goes into the chase, now its arrived, and we're hoping for a covering from that small area sat night because of Sundays snow to the south it's killed it for us, however, troughs do tend to form last minute and I remember people saying Dec 2010 looked dry. We no what happened there.
I'd give it a few days, Monday to Wed id expect there to be substantial developments leading up the days
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11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
UKV has 500mm (50+cm) of snow for some spots in East Anglia and the South East. May be overdone (Although I find this model is one of few that normally under does accumulation). Quite feasible though that some spots could see a foot or more, but more widely probably 15-20cm across some eastern areas. Certainly, I would expect a good few cm for more eastern and central areas (and a few spots in the west) than this model shows.
A lot of what iv shown does have a swath of the middle part of the country missing out during this spell, due to cloud cover from the front in the southeast. I hope we see something tbh. Our best shots seem to be if troughs develop and push across!
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2 hours ago, Jason M said:
Looking at the set up next week don't be surprised if the lows end up over France missing all but the SW. It just looks rife for pressure to rise over Scandinavia.
I agree here, I think we're about to a second rising of another high pressure somewhere between scandi and Iceland. Looking at the northern hemi tonight im expecting one to show its face next wk.
I should be very dubious into believing anything that blows the cold away
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14 minutes ago, Eskimo said:
This pattern should have us locked in for quite some time.
We have easterly winds stretching from Poland to near enough the east coast of the states, surely that's record breaking
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Don't be fooled that is one very very snowy picture,
We all crave tbfte and - 13 850s but that is very very snowy.
I think this next wk is gonna be talked about for years to come
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When did the ecm start using an 06?
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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:ECM much better than GFS with a well defined and deep easterly but it’s almost bone dry. It’s like going to to McDonald’s but coming out with a salad and bottle water. That said I’m sure if the easterly does become established it’ll develop small polar lows etc that the models just aren’t picking up.
How long you been on hear for?
Take know notice of ppn charts, December 2010 looked bone dry leading up to it, right before Sheffield had 60cm of snow in 24 hours, the midlands and Southern England had 30cm of snow, and northeast and Scotland litterely were digging themselvs out of there houses!
Don't worry at all, with that air, that cold, it'l be fun and games all the way before you even have to think about sliders
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
ECM T96 compared to GFS:
Further south, and I think we’ll be OK on this run, should know at T144...
Much different even at this earlier time frame. Ecm will be fine it's got a stronger ridge before the next low makes it way over in the Atlantic which will help to stop them merging together
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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
ECM T240, this just the most incredible run I’ve seen, beats last night’s pub run and that is saying something:
I get what your saying but ideally we need the Russian trough to sink south east a little which in turn will reshape the shape of the high. Because as the Atlantic weather front comes in it will push the winds southeast in nature and bring the warmer uppers, but listen this is simply just a tongue in cheek comment im well aware of how amazing charts are atm lol
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:
Good for Cornwall
Under slack air with 850s - 5 anything that falls should be snow
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Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
2 streamers in the mids, one setting up now toward Nottingham, Amber warning put out to start at 6am,
The other one through Peterborough into Warwickshire, im directly under it toward the southern tip, so they real heavy stuff stays toward Kettering etc, but iv got a dusting and it's been snowing most the night blowing around. Let's look forward to further developments today and hope to have widespread disruption!