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Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posts posted by Severe Siberian icy blast
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17 hours ago, nick sussex said:
Ignore the tag.
The radar looking vigorous this morning. Hard to see how it gets held out west and disapaits all day.
The last few events have been so poorly modelled even up to t0,
The last 2 events the beebs moved south barely effecting the mids only to become a midlands event. Even if yesterday it was wet snow rather settling, but the ppn distribution came a lot further north than they thought.
I attach this mornings most recent radar
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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Timing fits downwelling waves
20 jan. ......bit meh compared to what we expected from fi nwp
6/13 feb ......still hopeful but could be even worse than the above
23/end feb ..... same timing and third bite at the cherry .....
two to four week separations on those waves used to be accepted guidance ......
The weather continues to make mugs out of everyone I'm afraid.
There's litterely know point in looking at anything past 5 days other than a laugh.
This winter has had so much promise. Yet in reality it's consisted of marginal snow events, and pre warnings of snow only to be lifted nearer the time.
Any real cold ends up not reaching us. And the wkend now looking less likely by the day
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Just now, sheikhy said:
00z runs!!!!ecm is snow galore from saturday onwards!!midlands get buried!!
Thats really not what the BBC has just showed its removed the snow from the mids in the main?
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So what's happened to the snow that was forecast yesterday for Saturday?
Just watched the BBC and its all changed, midlands today yesterday reply talking up heavy snow now the beeb says bit of snow on high ground!
It's so so fickle
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39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
For anyone who doubts that the BBC 100% use the ECM run from 12hrs ago...no model matches this graphic...
Perfect match tbf
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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
UKMO looked so promising at 120
Less said about 144 the better.
GFS is hardly worth mentioning , it just looks horribly wet from now til 384 pretty much.
Its so frustrating, felt like we were building some momentum...
Perhaps EC will keep the faith.
If your after a snowy battle ground then ukmo is just the ticket.
Gfs is vile, low pressure systems sat very slightly west of the UK bringing south westerly winds the entire run.
UKMO is good, not massively cold but snowy with sliders
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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:
UKMO also interesting for Sunday, depending on where the front is sitting relative to the boundary cold/mild (which we can't see on the 500s/850s ) but Sunday is looking good for at least a period of heavy snow for many, looks like turning back to rain as of todays runs but will be nice to see nonetheless.
UKMO 120
Fairly close to an undercut there it wants to go under
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31 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Just out of interest the wedge of cold Arctic air is now locked over Torshavn for a least 4 to 5 days going by at the latest models. The picture is from the airport and temp is currently -5c with -10c 850mb level temps getting established as shown from the last sounding for the location with a solid Arctic profile way up past 500mb level. Longer term we need to see this set up consolidate and force some undercut into the British Isles. Still out to 96 hours remains up for grabs according to the team over here but current operational runs apart from GEM not in favour as yet !
C
You tease so they expect the gem to be along the right lines?
We've already saw how stubborn the cold can be, these weak heights are hard to model, I'm quite hopefull about the 12z, remember of course anything past 120 atm is just for fun, unless it shows cold and snow then it's picked up on the obvious pattern
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5 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:
big differences between 06z and 00z GFS for sunday at midday. I guess this is definitely a live issue and one to watch especially after GEM this morning.
A fantastic trend we need to see manifested in the 12z.
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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Not quite - the next big low has to disrupt se and keep most of any split flow into Europe - see gem 00z as an example. The other models not so keen. Gfsp not a bad effort and ec had a go before giving in. Certainly a better picture than the 12z runs but is this the edge of the envelope or a gradual trend emerging ?
Oh I agree, the point been is the models continue to underestimate and disregard these wedges, iv a sneaky feeling it will show its hand more compelling in the next 24hrs
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24 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:
still looks interesting for thursday morning
That was last nights tho
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Mixed feelings,
A fantastic 96h chart from the UKMO, weak wedge of hights, with cold air moving back over the UK, in the following 24hrs it removes the hights and its down hill, but as we know its 4 days limit atm, everythings changing within 3-4 days.
But id say the chances of a battle ground snow fall are quite high still moving into the weekend, it's all about timing and keeping just enough pressure up north to deflect the fronts south as the are doing..
As blue said, get the wkend cold and next wk will be aswel.
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9 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Just work lad, it’s just how it is
FOG
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3 hours ago, markw2680 said:
Actually no it’s a Lexus mate
Well actually it's one of about 6 or 7 isn't it. Greedy greedy greedy
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3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:
You have 4 models that potentially show the cold reasserting itself at day 5, even if it's only for a brief period saying it won't snow in the south in the next week is ludicrous.
How many charts even past 120 come off?
Especially when we have wedges of high pressures popping up that just don't get picked upon at that range.
Once one goes under, they all will
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19 minutes ago, MJB said:
Blink and you miss it though , the Atlantic is bombing through
I'm not sure I buy that tbh, the main vortex driving the pattern is northeast, the low song bomb up like that with nothing fueling it, the wedge picked up by the models inside t100 is because they're not picked up until nearer the time hence the models so quick to blow them away
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6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
A few have mentioned the radar is pepping up, this is the scenario I was on about, the decent precipitation from the east is back feeding, that is intensifying the band, the V8 radar is picking up on this also, could get interesting....but I did say could
My diagram I did was pointing to exactly that, although you've illustrated it better lol
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Call me mad but if anything the band has intensified the last few frames lol
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So as the ppn is actually traveling east we have 2 counteractions,
1, the southerly track which will pull it southeasterly in time
2 we could end up been in it for longer as we almost go southeast to northwest with the front rather than direct south,
Think as mines gone in the main id snatch an inch now lol
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I had 2 inches earlier, then a thaw from 11, iv now for 1.5cm and nothing on other surfaces, I lived in the cotswolds for 6 years had loads up there now iv split from the x and living at 59msl it's a killer,
However we have an interesting night I think and it be good to see how much we get because atm it's kept alive really well and building to the north west which bodes well as it slips S.E
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1 hour ago, weirpig said:
It is fronts starting to drop slightly westwards
The stuff around Notts now moving directly east to west, its a great sign, I expect it to drop within the hour,
We need as much ppn to the west as poss,
I'v just watched the update forecast on BBC was updated around 25 min ago, it talks of "more centimeters" tonight for the mids as it slips south.
A lot of my snow at 59asl has melted, it's living on low ground with modest uppers
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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:
It is fronts starting to drop slightly westwards
Well iv heard this by 2 members on hear now, yes it's slowed down and yes it's back built in one area toward Peterborough a bit but I can't see it moving westwards again so can you back this up? I'm hopeful lol
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Yes it's deffinately slowing down Infact I think it's just about stopped moving in the last 20 minutes or so, may have a tiny bit left in it but iv been expecting it to stop snowing for the last 40 minutes now for me and its just not left me.
I'm 59msl and I can already see according to the odd drip on the curbs that its melting very slowly, but im very low ground.
I'd expect it to stop snowing for an hr or 2 then start again this afternoon
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1 minute ago, Griff said:
Ecm, coming soon!
We need the low pressure to flattern out, more like a rugby ball rather than a football, with it been cut off and just slowly meandering about moving east, there's a good chance that could happen as it becomes a weaker feature, with cold air over the UK I think we could well be entering a snowy spell.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
You guys honestly are enough to drive me stir crazy haven't you got any control over your emotions to comment on every single frame freaking out?
Surely we knew the 06z wouldn't be the same as the 0z, and there's gonna more twist and turns until T72 probably t48 it happens with snow right down to t0,
And if it can go wrong it will, so expect nothing lol