Bristawl Si

Just watched weather update on Beeb News24. Snow for Thursday - all of south west and south coast as far east as IoW. Looks like it'll hit in morning down south and up to here by middayish.

Yep. Just missed here. Prob on its way to Portishead and then WSM

Gone pitch black to the North of my house. If it is on a NE to SW track i'd imagine it'll basically go down the M5 into N Somerset to WSM. Prob just going to miss here.

Prob head thru Kwood, Hanham and out thru S Bristol. Dark clouds to my East but broken cloud to North of me.

Light snow falling here

Just popped into the mad thread and someone just posted latest Chief Forecasters assessment.... UPGRADE....UPGRADE Late Thurs, Friday and into Saturday. I'm useless at copy/paste jobs so someone in here can prob find it and post it. Cheers BB

Flakes in the wind here but all around 'me' there are loads of heavy shower cloud so near here must be getting decent showers at mo

Graphics on News24 weather forecast just now look good for late Thurs into Friday, but Ireland looks like it'll get blasted.

Sun is out but still snowing a little. I feel a tad pathetic now as currently have BBC news24 on and a reporter is in N Yorks with a few inches of snow under foot And now a reporter live from Ashford, Kent where it is a winter wonderland and still chucking it down

Getting heavier

Snowing here at home in SG - gone from flurry to proper snow shower

Standing at Lawrence Hill train station (central east Bristol) waiting for train up to Btl Parkway, SG and itvis snowing here.

-5c; clear skies. No snow overnight; nit even a graupel. What's Thurs/Fri looking like on latest charts? Seen AWD's arpege charts. Is it back on?

Could head into France yet. Major blizzard? Not so sure. Major blizzards in my lifetime i can remember: February 78 NYE 1978 early morning to lunchtime; followed by another 2 in January 79. All epic. A number in December 81 13 Jan 87 - epic "Epic" - temps below 0c; biting winds; driving snow; 3 ft drifts.

No surprise AWD. My post yday eve effectively 'warned' against viewing model runs showing major snowstorm this far out. By Wednesday eve we'll have a better idea.

Light snow flurries here in SG

Yes i posted earlier about tomorrow. Snow goes thru N Midlands into mid-Wales. Track on yday's forecasts was for it to head thru Cotswolds and into Bristol area to N Somerset. The nature of the 'snow beast'. In 24 hours forecast changes. Worth noting that kind of forecast change timescale in respect of Thurs/Fri. Snow is a bu##er to forecast, even a few hours out.

The snow forecast for later tomorrow looks like missing our area. Hitting the N Midlands then forecast to head into mid-Wales. Last night's forecasts had its remnants heading through Cotswolds and down through Bristol and into N Somerset. Late Thurs/Fri? Wait and see re exact track. The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

Light flurries here in SG

As i hinted in post yday eve AWD that Thurs/Fri low looks like it is heading out away from Ireland into the Atlantic. Might end up being a non-event. Extreme version of the situ mind you

Although the ECM does seem to offer prospect of LP being deflected away towards S Ireland? As i said in more detailed post earlier one suspects this wont be clear(er) until Thurs morn?

I dont know enough about effects of major SSWs, but from reading posts on NW in last few years from likes of Chinio they absolutely play havoc with model output runs for days and weeks. The forecast LP for later in the week (4/5 days away) could go absolutely anywhere. From barrelling through West Country thru Midlands and Northwards to not even barely touching the South Coast. Yes....that extreme difference. Genuinely. I've seen these systems be forecasted to hit 'us' head on...and then an updated forecast some 24 hours later takes it south in N France. The track of the end of week Low will prob chop&change over next 3 days. That dartboard version from GFS will modify; they always do nearer the 'hit' time. 'We' will either (i) Get buried on Friday (ii) Snow to rain (iii) V little precip OR (iv) Nowt at all...Yes nothing, as it skirts into N France. Pains me to write it, but wait til Thurs morning to see forecast.

Assuming yday's model runs are on right track then some head scratching going on amongst NW's 'big guns'. Their absent posts today are v noticeable. It was meant to be an epic 2-week cold spell. But hang on - it was only meant to really start about now. 24 hours ago the Friday LP was predicted to head into France come Friday but now it seems it's planning to barrel its way through England bringing less cold temps eventually. Will be a "snap" or a "spell"?

Strange, considering Meto updates were still v bullish re cold and snow for next 2 weeks. Wonder what Mogreps is now showing?

It is basically following GFS runs. Ukmo not as good as yday either. Trend one suspects. 2 weeks of severe cold?! Hmmm......