Bristawl Si
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Posts posted by Bristawl Si
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31 minutes ago, CharlieBear9 said:
I'd guess that people who've had water in their homes haven't found it particularly "useless".
Erm...that was a week plus ago. Yes, flooded props will still have their effects for months, but why live beside a river? Or why do useless environ secs and councils allow new builds on nature's flood plains?
Oh, and by the way a proper deep freeze is way more damaging than localised floods. I mean "DEEP". When pipes burst in an area affected by a proper deep freeze it affects 000s more properties than localised flooding.
Oh, and another "by the way" i thought guilt tripping was discouraged in here. So, "useless" cold without snow is just pointless, but costs money for increased energy useage.
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2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:
Oh my the MAD thread have a met term ‘bone dry ‘ only mentioned 17 times today !
Even Nick has chucked in his towel
I will stick with the Pro’s
"Bone dry" - a term i used one week ago; hasnt been far off bar the dandruff flakes from Monday.
As others have said, an absolutely 'useless' coldish spell that's cost loot on increased energy useage at home.
Oh for the AH to muscle in for rest of Winter.
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9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts
Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.
And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps
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6 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Who listens to Mark Vogen?
Was thinking the same. Plus, who is he?
A little bit of 'digging' says he's a weather enthusiast.
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Just now, lassie23 said:
That would be very disappointing if, after hundreds of posts and loads of hype in this thread, we end up with 5 days of cold lol
But no surprise
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The current cold(ish) spell, has only really felt "cold" because of the wind. Daytime temps here have been around 3-6c - yes, a little below norm, but nowt exceptional for January, quite frankly. Night temps have been strangely not that cold, range minus 1c to 2c(last night).
Certainly, no where near on a par with endFeb/early March 2018 or Nov/Dec '10 or Dec09/Early Jan '10.
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17 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:
Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?
Partly, at least
Topography
A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.
Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.
Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004334-
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17 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?
Partly, at least
Topography
A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.
Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.
Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.
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4 minutes ago, MJB said:
You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL
UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output
, unlike some of the NW members.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003178-
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Chaos in the Strat, causes chaos in the model output for a while.
I'm sure Ian Ferguson, when he used to post in here, said so (in so many words).
Prob worth taking into account all this week when viewing the models.
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Well, that's it...a few light snow showers/flurries for 1st time this Winter, 8th January.
I reck it's fair to say that back in my childhood days, 50+ years ago, the first snow showers of Winter would've happened mid-late November, here? May not have seen much more snow in those Winters, mind you.
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29 minutes ago, Simon Moody said:
Thanks you for the response - it's appreciated. I can see that the policy recognises that the home is a brick built bungalow with a coservatory but getting an assessor to validate or reject the claim is the issue. They don't accept that their recorded wind speed or rainfall constitutes a severe enough event, therefore reject the claim rather than investigate. Meanwhile, weather reports suggests rain returning at the weekend - I have to get some kind of repair before then and will have to use first available company regardless of whether they are AXA approved - obviously, everyone I contact about repairs is crazy business with gale damage locally.
Hmm....my conclusion then, fwiw, is that any damage, rain leakage from outside, is deemed by AXA to be due to insufficient and/or faulty roof pre-storm. I.e the storm didnt cause the damage, but more so the state of the roof/conservatory pre-storm was the real cause.
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Chucking it down now;
....well, snowing steadily, with some settling
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Light snow grains falling.
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Hi.
I'm ex-Financial Services but i was always on the Investment/Pensions 'arm' of the industry.
However, having been a house owner for nigh on 36 years and knowing a fair bit from ex-colleagues on the insurance side there will be a number of issues an insurance risk assessor will look at.
Firstly, when you bought the policy did you declare that you had a conservatory attached to the house?
If you did, fine,
but if not
i'd expect your policy to be invalid, if claiming against water damage coming in at the point of conservatory attachment to the main house.
Secondly, an assessor will look to see if your house was in good condition before the rains arrived i.e. was the affected roof area already in a state of disrepair prior to the rain storm. Believe me, they will know, by looking at it post-leak.
If they've deemed it wasnt a storm, by their definition, then i'm surprised that you cant lodge a claim, so an assessor can visit your property.
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Nowt here, but it's got very dark as the cloud base seems to be lowering. Alex Deakin latest Meto update suggests showers this evening for South Midlands, south west and into S Wales.
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5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
As usual it's hard to tell what the situation is going ahead. Looking at posts on social media and here, you see posts calling a total flop and other posts talking like the next ice age is coming.
One needs to factor in the Hyperbole 'level', associated with the frequent NW members that post in the computer model thread.
Examples:
Level 1 - Level 3. Factual, incisive, knows their stuff technically, very good at reading a chart, is confident in forecasting ahead of a chart, BUT crucially keep ramps, excitement to a minimum.
Level 4 - Level 7. These peeps are also knowledgeable, definitely can interpret a chart or 50 and will post 50 in one post so as to annoy NW members who use their mobile phones to access NW
. They're prone to some excitement, esp when the other half aint in the same room.
Level 8 - Level 10. A real mixture populate these levels. The resident NW 'cheerleaders' are in the majority here, but this segment is split between (i) those who know their stuff and love the adulation of loads of likes, they go way over the top to max out expectations for a chart at Day 14. And
(ii) those who get over excited, spend most days in their bedroom, watching every single chart on every single run, think a sleet shower is just ace, BUT in reality aint got a scooby; however, they're so in love with some other, more knowledgeable NW members.
A guide to NW Hyperbole
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14 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:
So looking at somewhere like Bristol that is 'Amber' we have forecasted temps next week of 4/3/5/7/6 - thats severe cold, maybe it is these days in the UK!
Yeah, it's bulk standard temps in January, after a long wet spell. Yes, it's a little below normal but not overly so.
Been out jet washing the patio this morn (and yday morn). Not something i norm do in early January but the constant wet weather made it green and slimey, and i got fed up seeing it over the last couple of weeks.
Job done, rewarded with a roast pork lunch
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On 05/01/2024 at 14:57, Bristawl Si said:
So, are we on our way towards this?
Sunday morn update
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
Maybe the biggest teleconnection of the lot is overriding previously understood teleconnections. This being global climate change teleconnector?
NOPE.
"...overriding previously understood..."
THE ATLANTIC
Nowt's changed on that 'front'
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10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
As far as I can tell, we're getting a few days of colder temps before they start going up again. So far I'm not sure what's happening in the second half of the month. Fortunately these outlets aren't sensationalising every model run.
Looks cold next few days, here, but not overly so, before less cold air moves in 2nd half of the coming week. Night time temps forecast for around zero c or even slightly above. Again not extreme cold by any means.
Looking at Meto forecasts it seems that 2nd half of January is where precipitation chances increase, with poss of snow for those on the cold/less cold boundary.
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12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north?
Meteogroup provide weather forecasts for the Beeb; have done since 2018.
Latest info i can find from Meteogroup, as below:
MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP) namely GFS, and the British model (produced by UKMO).
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21 minutes ago, Flub136 said:
Sorry if this is in the wrong domain but please could someone direct me to a good explanation of “dam” and “dam thickness” and its relation to snow production. Thanks in advance.
From UK MetOffice website:
Thickness lines
Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass.
Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave.
Hope this helps your understanding.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997806-
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I actually cut the grass this lunchtime; dont think i've ever bothered before, in January
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