Wilxy

Hopefully the GFS parallel will change that not sure how its actually performing so far but the ECM is consistent with the output, this winter should have better cold potential than of last year but I am not getting my hopes up as I have seen the models go for something for a while only for it to backtrack at a closer range fingers crossed we have a fun and entertaining winter . And I think the UKMO is a solid model to use as a back up to what the other two show and would rather look no further than 144h.

I wouldn't get down about one run it is only the beginning of November we don't want it to turn cold to early it will more than likely be a milder second half, its been a good morning again lets wait and see what the 12z shows.

Well put it this way the GFS was late on picking up the blocking in the pole and eventually caught up with the GEM and I have also noticed that the blocking over northern Scandinavia has been getting stronger in the short term, I think wait and see what tomorrow brings but I am feeling happy about how negative the OPI has been compared to last year, I am just enjoying the conversations and it will be interesting to see what this winter brings.

Its dropped to -1.86 now but I am not concerned, if anything I am still feeling optimistic but also cautious.

12Z has more blocking than the 6Z so I am thinking the next OPI update could be lower again, I am feeling very happy about this outcome.

The blocking looks better on this run but the angle of the high pressure has allowed warmer uppers to push north towards Scandinavia I am hoping this wont effect the Snow gain but there are some shifts the weather pattern for next week at this stage.

Hello All. ECM is still keen on a pressure rise from the beginning of next week and ending up right above the UK and Europe, but the GFS is backing down on the idea of pressure rising and has been trending towards low pressure making more of a impact, I have been trying to understand the difference and I have noticed that the GFS is also indicating of stronger blocking over northern Scandinavia on recent outputs possibly forcing low pressure to track more south into the Atlantic. Thanks Everyone and happy model watching!

18z GFS shows much more heights heading towards the pole so far which is closer to the GEM solution as it stands.

Afternoon everyone. We have been quite lucky avoiding the showers over the last few days but there have been occasions where there has been the odd shower. But just had a heavy almost torrential shower lasting 15mins passing through and clearing to are east now no hail or thunder winds did pick up quite a bit as well, it's a lot clearer now behind the showers. Thanks

Hello everyone Iv been following the OPI and listening to everyone's opinions on what to expect this winter at the moment the signals are pointing to a colder winter although if things don't go to plan I still can't see this winter being as mild or wet as last, it's also a good idea to keep an eye on what's happening over the Atlantic towards America to see the developments as they head towards winter, overall I'm feeling more optimistic about the coming winter than of last year. Thanks all and happy model watching.

Its back building again!

This easily matches 17th july as yet again iv heard 2 very loud shot gun bolts of thunder, this has been a very good evening for are region, overall very happy.

flashy flashy boom boom

Just seen some distant lightning and now hearing distant thunder

Are we likely to see further developments overnight or will they fizzle out in a hour or 2 seems like its a very hard one to call.

That cell is heading straight for my location but I have a feeling it will lose its intensity as it gets closer.

I remember the night of the 17th clearly, there was naff all on radar until suddenly an explosion of cells from the south and well we all know what happened next!

Very thundery looking to my S, not thunder yet.

ECM has been keen on the storm tracking further south across the English channel and exiting into the north sea tonight should be intresting to see what the ECM has in store next model watching is great when there is so much uncertainty.

Sunny again here now had a couple of rumbles of thunder from cell that passed over Severn Estuary, that's now producing hail as it moves towards the midlands, another cell has popped up to my south with very dark skies no thunder heard.

Can hear distant thunder now also started to rain

It's much cooler here today with scattered cumulus signs of a unsettled weekend very strong now but it's been a great June and July would have been amazing if August could have been the same but looking unlikely now.

It's been another nice day here today still feeling very warm out, it may be turning cooler next week but I think it will be welcome for some people who suffer in the heat. Thanks all

Nice I also have a vantage vue but not set up at the moment due to location and need to find a good spot for it, also went ahead and ordered the kestrel 3000 can't wait to start using it especially with the balloon fiesta coming up should be useful

Cells popping up everywhere now wonder whether ill get another storm fingers crossed.