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swilliam

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Posts posted by swilliam

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Been plenty of discussion about eps above but the operational post day 6/7 when chaos has fully intervened is effectively no different to the other 50 members re accuracy because they are all running at 9km. 

    so looking at the ec op and worrying about what it shows is pretty much the same as looking at any of the 50 members.  And we just don’t do that. The ops get the attention on ec because it comes out first.

    First tech ssw on an op run for quite some time Andy 

    but the cross sectionals show the reversals higher up in latitude are effective 

    I think the op is the most important because it's the one that started with the real data (and the control). All the other runs are started with adjusted data so the op is the real one if you like.

     

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by swilliam

    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Sick of EC chucking out mild outliers now.

    Come on ECM sort your self out this evening !! 

    I would just like to mention that this very simple representation is a bit misleading in that the grey areas are percentiles (90% I think). If you look at all the runs the op is not an outlier in the true sense of the word (as in the most extreme solution). It is of course at the top end though.

    Could contain: Electronics, Blackboard, Plot, Chart

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    • Insightful 3

    Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

    Indeed. Some would make you think we WERE in October already. Plenty of 20C plus days in the last 2 weeks here, currently 21.6C with every suggestion that the ex TS Alex will scoot up towards Iceland on Friday leaving us to pull in the very warm air off the continent. OK it will be warmest in the south but that is ALWAYS the case in most summers. Mid 20's entirely possible, but from that source there will always be the risk of thundery downpours.

    We are having an entirely average spell of UK summer weather, not dross, not scorching, just average.

    Indeed just average so not too bad  the further S and E you are.

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.jpeg

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Based on past history I'd suspect that the gfs/ec  won't be a million miles away. Granted things can change but that's generally when a cold forecast counts down from day 10-7. Looking at the nhp and subsequent synoptics the static high scenario drifting south is the favourite outcome imo

    Well before the cold was shown the modelling was showing something similar to what is predicted now, a slow moving high near us. People were complaining then as now nothing interesting showing and that we would have a boring Xmas. Then all of a sudden the High started being predicted to move NW and the discussion was around how far it would get and that it would never be far enough. In the end of course it went too far and we missed the cold all together. We have the same discussion here and I agree with VB that anything could change at this timescale, I have no idea why people just assume when cold is not shown it will always be right. I think having the high near us is a pretty good starting point - if it was over Iberia or France then  this would be a real concern. Anything could happen here beyond about 6/7 days so it is just a question of being patient to see what does occur. You may be right and it ends up being South of us and this is probably the highest % outcome. However there are plenty of other options  - especially with the PV on the move.  

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    One thing to note (This happens on the ICON run that has just been processed). The weak heights to the north may try to drift southwards for a time into the U.K. This in turn results in a more south easterly flow as the Atlantic low approaches and essentially hits this surface high.

    It would be beneficial for this to not happen as of course this also blocks the cold air to the north east. It may get there is the end but this is the kind of evolution that the ECM op has been toying with, as such you end up with your continental flow, but no real cold to tap into either.

    Yes quite as I was trying to show earlier - the focus should be more on the arrival of proper cold air and a bit less on the lows now.

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