[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, swilliam said:

quite a nice snow event for our friends in the SE as well

 

 

snow depths to go with that. Should be more representative now as no marginality

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

quite a nice snow event for our friends in the SE as well

 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

oh dear - the 120 is VERY different to GFS at 120 

It is nearly always an exact replica of the UKMO 120 chart - looks like it to

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

26 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed.. I’m constantly surprised with ECM not helped by the 24 jumps I guess..

I mean 192 could boom age if the low over us goes south east or darn right grim if the lows to our south west merge.

simply no idea

You should try the Metdesk site then - it comes out in 3 hour steps

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,accprecip,850temp,2mtemp&run=12&step=003&plottype=ens&lat=52.083&lon=-1.017&skewtstep=0

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

moving it east and north instead

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

should be better this - does not develop the new low NW Scotland

12z

0z

0z

12z

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This would be a real kick in the teeth, now where have i seen that chart before??  get this incredible feeling of deja vu, its called marginal slushfest 20-21 deja vu.

 

Looks a bit like that it must be said

 

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

14 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 

Jan 2013. The above saw a red warning in wales for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. While it does infuse the jet it doesnt put a complete end to a UK cold spell, was also off the back of a split SSW.

 

 

Yes similar situation here  - turbocharged jet heading straight for Africa

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Looks like met have gone with their own model on fax as usual.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Anybody just joining from the 12Zs will look at the post count think there has been an amazing pub run!

Head is off the keyboard now

 

Lightened the place up a bit anyway

 

Sorry guys and gals.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

If you carry on posting like this, it'll only be 2 days away...

err sorry

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Surely that means thst the Strat forecasts (and charts) of last couple of weeks are/were .....erm......wrong!?

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Pretty good split on the GEFS mean against the operational anyway.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Underwhelming ending to the day with a flat GEFS.

Flat?

 

This is the mean at 348.

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Looks similar to UKMO at 144  with merging of the two lows. I guess we will get an idea of what will happen in this scenario.

Compared to GFS

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Updated t24 fax is very different to the earlier t36. It has the low much deeper and further S with more energy going E through France

t36 (12Z)

t24 (18Z)

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The gfs has been really good lately.

It was the first model to pick up the runner low as and also the first to pick up the cold spell not lasting....

As I just said GEM was first - not that it matters anyway really - the one model is better than another model is a rather wearisome discussion

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GEM rubbish model, but makes very little of the shortwave, doubt it's correct

GEM showed this change to no Northerly and Atlantic coming through yesterday  with the same kind of comments (about it being rubbish) - in this case the model picked this change out first if it happens like is shown at present.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts...  

It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image

 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

57 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

TBH I couldn't see that type of result occurring from that setup, plus theres really no room for manoeuvre there - if that high is even a tiny bit more NE then its not happening.

Yes - but this is where we started with the previous one and then it kept adjusting S and ended up in the Midlands - this could do the same or not - we will see. It is something of interest at any rate.

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

Could be slidergate 2 developing  - this has shown up for  a few runs now.

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

an ridge (High pressure) is maybe setup near NE of the USA - that is usefull for cold air in NW Europe - we need to wait 

If that model was to be believed we would all be having a white Christmas. Fortunately NASA has been shown to be not very good at predicting climate so weather should be the same.

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Vortex sheared in half again late in FI.

looks very nice - pity the one half is shoved over us. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Control goes off on one - big spread at end

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cmon fax charts, please update lol

Looks like they have gone with their model as they usually do.