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Rob K

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Everything posted by Rob K

  1. Rob K
    Metcheck readings are meaningless. It could be somebody's cheap AWS in full sun for all we know. Only official stations are worth bothering with.
  2. Rob K
    Heathrow 37.2C at 2pm. The second hottest day in UK history, beating Aug 3 1990.
  3. Rob K
    This is a list of the hourly readings from Aug 10 2003. Times are in UTC so add an hour to get the BST time. We are a couple of degrees ahead of 2003 (31.6C at 0850Z compared to 29.6C in 2003)! https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03772&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2003&mes=08&day=11&hora=6
  4. Rob K
    Strange that the Arpege model goes for the highest temperatures if it also has more cloud!
  5. Rob K
    Not that site, though. The official station is a manual one at the Brogdale apple centre.
  6. Rob K
    I was always sceptical of that one as none of the high-res models suggested the temperatures staying above 22C in any given place. And so it proved.
  7. Rob K
    The zoomable ARPEGE shows just how wide an area of 38C is shown. Parts of Kent, and then a big swathe from Sussex up through London to Cambridgsehire: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=131&x=4723.53&y=2129.52&ech=36&zoom=3 BTW it is showing a max of 30C for Kent today which has already been exceeded at noon! I guessed 38.1C in the competition but I would probably add a degree to that now. I think we will just miss 40C though.
  8. Rob K
    GFS has never been showing those very high figures - it often tends to underestimate maxima. It's the high-res models that have been showing 38 or even 39, and they still are. The European high-res HARMONIE model has 40C in Kent, for example.
  9. Rob K
    The grid spacing for the numbers is just too wide. If you look at the shading there are plenty of areas above 36C, although the key is very confusing.
  10. Rob K
    Yes Brogdale (Faversham) is an official site but it isn't automated so doesn't tend to show up on the daily record list. It gets added in at the month's end, when all the data is sent in, I believe.
  11. Rob K
    And especially given that Gravesend weather station closed last year! My guess is for a 38.1C in East Anglia somewhere. Let's say Cambridgeshire actually. On Thursday 25th.
  12. Rob K
    Yes by T192 we have a UK high. Encouraging signs, but only one run and all that...
  13. Rob K
    06Z GFS takes it up to 52C!
  14. Rob K
    Tibenham Airfield is about 13 miles southeast of Norwich and (assuming the site online is the official airfield station) looks to have hit 37.8C during a brief freakish rise around 4.30pm.
  15. Rob K
    The op run was among the slower members to build in the heat. Some eg P4 build it in quickly and then maintain it for over a week of 32C+ maxima.
  16. Rob K
    Don't you mean 20C? Edit - ah, you said days 8-10. The 20C comes later.
  17. Rob K
    That was yesterday. A lot has changed since then!
  18. Rob K
    Looking at the charts from Aug 2003 I'm amazed that we didn't go higher than 38.5C. There were >20C 850s for several days, peaking at 22C. The charts are showing 36C possible on Friday with only 18C at 850. I assume there has to be a chance of the record even with upper air temps a couple of degrees lower than 2003, as we have had such prolonged dry weather (although showers on Fri could dampen the soil somewhat)
  19. Rob K
    If it's a 20% chance of 38.5C being broken then surely the chance of 36.7C being broken would be a lot higher than 30%!
  20. Rob K
    But by next Tuesday GEM has afternoon temps of just 13C-20C across the south!
  21. Rob K
    Indeed it has been a classic winter at T240, rivalling 1963!
  22. Rob K
    That is the ECM 168 chart, Steve. This is the UKMO 168 chart:
  23. Rob K
    As I have to cycle across London this evening that doesn't fill me with confidence. If it looks really wild I might leave the bike at work...
  24. Rob K
    No - the central pressure of the storm is dropping something like 40mb in 18 hours. This is a bomb and then some.
  25. Rob K
    It means that the ECM and ARPEGE models show a more meridional (i.e. straight north-south line) approach rather than the tilted undercut from NW to SE which is more favoured by the UKMO. Ian says the Fax charts have been drawn to reflect the forecasters' view that the UKMO is the one that is out of line, which is why today's fax charts show less of a "slider" scenario than yesterday's did.
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