Rob K

Everything still creeping east run by run. Still looks ok but if the trend continues we will be getting southerlies in a few runs time!

Certainly the NAO forecast charts show quite an uptick mid month, albeit not straying into positive territory. Sorry no link as on mobile.

I'd be happier if pressure would drop over France and Spain on this run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

Who says the models are inconsistent? ECM has been modelling an easterly at T240 for the past 14 days ;-)

Looks fine to me with an evolution to Scandi high and easterly, just like GFS. Not nearly as good as the 00Z though.

That's the crux of the matter, for any model.

Absolute nonsense! UKMO has performed very solidly for the past several days, when ECM has been showing everything for this weekend from screaming easterlies to SWerlies! Nobody who has been model watching this week can say ECM has outperformed UKMO!

I fully agree. UKMO model has outperformed all others over the last few days. It has never wavered regarding this weekend while GFS and ECM have been all over the place. All we are seeing now is the slight breakdown coming into the 144hr range if UKMO. It certainly hasn't "backed down" at all.

Looks like a radar error, you can see it follows segments of the radar circles.

Just a heads up to snow fans - today's Times comes with the "Eureka" science supplement which this month is about snow. Looks an interesting read. Haven't been through it yet but there are features on the future of snow with AGW (yes I know...), avalanches, ski racing etc.

Exactly - on that chart the ridge axis seems to be about 10º West longitude, i.e. pretty much the UK region, but we'd still be on the receiving end of an easterly flow.

Yep I saved them specially... these were T+24 hour charts Pressure chart: http://i45.tinypic.com/307w11u.jpg 850s: http://i48.tinypic.com/55idl.png Thicknesses: http://i46.tinypic.com/zn8z2h.png Precipitation: http://i47.tinypic.com/ra6qon.png Result: http://i45.tinypic.com/5pr32s.jpg (it got deeper, too!)

Yes, Fleet (about 4 miles away) was mentioned on the news as having 28cm. I've never thought of this area as being particularly snowy but north Hampshire/Surrey has done rather well in the last couple of years - I think it was April 2008 that really kicked it off with a surprise 10cm spring fall, then just over six months later in October 2008 we got another 2-3cm. Then in Feb 2009 we got 16cm (not as much as Woking, Guildford etc which got 30cm+!). Then this winter Dec 17 brought 8cm of light powder, topped up to 12cm with the heavy wet stuff that brought Basingstoke to a standstill on Dec 21. That lay till Boxing Day then on January 6/7 we got 24cm, with a couple of light falls since then, and now it's pelting it down again. Sorry, don't mean to gloat but the last 2 years have brought more snow here than the last 20 put together, I reckon!

Well if it keeps up at the same intensity for a few hours it will give a decent depth. We still have ~10cm on the ground from last Tue/Wed when we got 24cm, and had a small top-up on Sunday night (1cm or so). Now all the cleared areas have been covered over again, maybe another 1cm or so, a bit more on the cars.

I don't know if I count as South Central or South East but here in Yateley (NE Hants) it's been snowing since about midnight - very fine flakes but lots of them, and settling nicely. My dirty-looking snow heaps are pristine white again!

See my post at the bottom of the last page. The front over northern England is not predicted to move south much at all for a good while. The precipitation for the south of England is modelled to move up from the southwest and intensify this evening. It should reach western parts of Surrey around 7pm-9pm, but the positioning is very much up in the air.

The front across the Manchester area isn't really meant to move south that much. The heavy snow for the south is modelled to come up from the south-west. GFS high-res illustrates it well... http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs063.gif http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs093.gif http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs123.gif http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rmgfs153.gif Notice how a large blob of heavy ppn is forecast to form to the SW and move up into the southern part of the country, while the northern band stays pretty well stationary. New press release (with map) on the Met O site too: http://www.metoffice...pr20100105.html

mm of rain. A rough guide is that 1mm of rain will give 1cm of snow, as lying snow is ~90% air! Great fax charts tonight which are virtual carbon copies of the NAE output: http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Yep all the models seem to have picked up on something big! http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/6h.htm

The NAE is run by the UKMO is it not, and that also supports heavy snowfall in the south (albeit a tad further west than GFS suggests).

Well it's not that far off the more trusted mesoscale NAE: http://expert.weathe...010612_0412.gif Accumulations of 20mm+ (or cm if you prefer!) over 48 hours. Something may be afoot (of snow...)

Ties in very well with the 12Z NAE update... http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/04/basis12/ukuk/prty/10010600_0412.gif Looks very interesting for the south!

Well not far off! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1502.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png Seems reasonable to me - the deep cold uppers are nearly exhausted by then http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1652.gif

The dewpoints are -1 to -2 at the time of the chart, not +1 to +2. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1628.gif

As I said they were the 12Z runs when I posted them. The 18Z still has -10s over almost the whole country... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1472.gif http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1562.gif