Pembroke Dangler
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Posts posted by Pembroke Dangler
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more than a whiff of this old system bumping into cold air, the rest as they say is history. Please be right ECM just a little further south later on and jackpot we all stay cold and the snow starved south get hammered.
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Winds veering slightly now more east south east and with the coldest pool of air just coming towards us and the Bristol Channel being about 2 degrees warmer than the North Sea we *could* see some convection of our own move inland in south wales
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15 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Developing more of easterly winds picking showers are building in East Anglia.
Looks like a more organised band developing there let’s hope it remains intense when it gets here
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Nice little upgrade it’s becoming a quickly evolving situation where the Bristol Channel will pep up the showers this evening and move inland by the looks of it, nothing significant but should be nice to see nevertheless
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49 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Because of a drop of tempretures in the afternoon showers could break out afternoon /evening ,then need to radar watch light snow showers anywhere south east Wales favoured spot.
We need a slight south east element to the wind for here Keith to bring the showers off the Bristol Channel but could happen I’ve seen it before.
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
this is probably the best run in a while showing longevitySnow would be widespread and disruptive with this set up low spinning up fronts in to the dense cold air wow let’s have it.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
WOW, that’s crazy cold right there -10/-15c nights at least for the usual cold spots
Beautiful chart and should lock in with the Omega style block forming between Greenland and Iceland, that Low over the Azores could move east and prevent the heights escaping over us and bring a special snow event to southern u.k.
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ukmo is a thing of beauty and would go on to produce a pretty potent northerly later on. As for longevity I have a feeling that the high would collapse down towards us but if this coincides with the Jet moving back north we could have residual heights left far enough north to force the renewed push of Atlantic energy under and give us a few battleground snow scenarios before the renewed signal of background drivers helping northern blocking re-establish towards months end and beyond. Ecm is a concern but you’d still feel there would be enough residual heights left over the nw to force systems under.-
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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Exactly my thoughts, if we can get the low in the Azores and cold trough dropping down from the north to meet somewhere would get a decent snow event and I’m all about the risk reward, the uppers don’t need to be -10 for that -2 or below would suffice in this set up with frontal Snow, then watch the temps drop afterwards.
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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
two groupings after the 2nd shot of colder uppers, green following the op and control and blue following a large pack staying colder.Crucially I feel but not hanging my hat on it the mean stays below -5 and the colder run group has 5 members below -10 I think yesterday we had 2 breaching -10 small wins and all to play for.
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Just now, frosty ground said:
this is what the depth of cold and lowering heights over Greenland lead to, not sure how that low to the north west will act, could head south east or bring back the Atlanticone run but a slight wobble of the wheel.
ensembles and 0z will offer more information
Seems to rapidly intensify as it drops down from Greenland hopefully it’s forced to drop through us as behind it there is a ton of cold lurking far out in FI now though so will probably be gone by the next run anyway seems a bit rogue to me.
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
Will that lobe of low pressure over Scandinavia move/be forced south?...a lot of the 'real' cold is still to the north or is the patter still evolving as this is the 14th...
I think the 850’s on the day 10 ecm will be colder nearer the time I’ve never been a fan of the later 850 output from the model tbh but if the Synoptics run like this in 10 days they would be colder.
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2 hours ago, Cymro said:
Easterlies rarely get me excited being on the Western side of Bannau Brycheiniog but to see such dry weather on the horizon is great! We've also managed a frost this morning although the forecasted temp is 5 degrees, just shows that the forecast can often be wrong as well.
I hope we pull a Nwstly in at the end of next week to awaken the Dangler!!
Don’t worry I’ll be awake
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
81/82 was a six/seven week long frigid period
62/63 lasted months
I guess you said ‘could’
yes it could
but the chances are very very heavily that it won’t - maybe 5%.
Yep they were once in 100 year events for sure but who knows could we be due another one? Another warming event has come up on a few runs today towards months end which would likely disrupt the pv some more and shove February into the freezer too.
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Just now, Hullsnow87 said:
This could grind this country to a halt as we are not used to that type of cold
Love thy Neighbour and look out for the elderly this could be historic if it plays out the way it is on the means and some of the operational runs today proper pipe bursters.
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1 minute ago, Hullsnow87 said:
Could this really rival 2010?
This could rival 62/63 and 81/82 for longevity of cold
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7 minutes ago, MJB said:
LP to the SW a problem or will the cold get in first and create the perfect channel low ?
Think it could be the the perfect snow storm as the cold arrives from the north and the low meet somewhere would get buried historically the south west.
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1 minute ago, Johnp said:
I remember the lead upto it on here and it counted down perfectly for about 2 weeks out, all the model power we have now should be better at handling this spell better than back then you’d think but there were the doubters back then too will it be to west based etc etc but much like this coming spell all the ensembles are pointing towards a Greenland block and that’s where we are heading imho
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Just now, MJB said:
It will only get colder from here conveyor belt of cold circulating out of scandi over us perfection and reinforced by the lows going under the block into Iberia please let this be right
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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:
GEM day 9
Would love to see the uppers on that to see what we could expect from that approaching low.
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Day 10 ecm mean has an east north east flow as the high looks to just get north of the uk enough, that’s not bad for a mean chart that far out.
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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Yup. Something like this is where we are heading.
Yes if we can box that high in over Iceland should see some disrupting Lows going under sliding
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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
So far apart its ridiculous and precisely why every run should not be taken as gospel for newbies
06Z
12Z
Yes exactly why we should just stick with the Means and anomalies that far ahead as you would go crazy if you followed every run and treat as gospel. Zonal winds are falling and MJO is projected into favourable territory so stick with these I would and don’t look past 7 days ahead. The NWP have a lot to work out and as @nick sussex mentioned there will be wedges and all sorts popping up all over the polar regions. The models just don’t know where yet.
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The later output from the GFS 12Z would go on to topple the high over us and would flatten out but that’s one variation on the theme and I bet the later part would be in warm outlier territory when the GEFS is out later. You can bet there will be a few which link the Greenland ridge to the one over the pole and the cold continuing until the end ideally!
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
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