Pembroke Dangler
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Posts posted by Pembroke Dangler
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10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Long way to go but met office starting to agree with strat warming.
Yes they do seem to slowly jumping of the fence so to speak and going with colder blocked scenarios, I love the bit about the block being towards the north west which would point to more of a Northerly outbreak which is good for here as long as the uppers are cold enough, could see Lake effect snow coming in off the Irish Sea in bands.
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Just now, snefnug said:
Weird, just mentioned to husband that the sky was a bit angry red looking this evening. Probs is, particles and stuff?
I think I’ve found the culprit Gower Grassland on fire pretty big one too
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Very weird orange Hew in the sky this late afternoon wonder if it’s to do with the volcano in Iceland very peculiar
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14 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Most likely continuing unsettled early in the period with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the north and west. Short-lived colder spells remain possible, with hazards such as snow and ice, particularly in the north. Through January conditions may turn less unsettled as high pressure has more influence. A possible change in weather patterns also increasing the chance of more prolonged spells of colder weather for all areas by mid-January.
They’ve been quite resolute in predicting chance of prolonged colder weather from mid January so this could indicate a qtr from the strat or a lagged mjo in phase 8-1 maybe. Anyhow patients is needed I feel.
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
GFS 12z is a decent run so far, with a ridge in the Atlantic giving rise to a northerly, here T216:
No dragons upstream from this point on either.
Nice to see those stubborn heights drain away from Iberia tidy run this so far
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8 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:
Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights. No doubt there’ll be some exciting members.
Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…
I’d like a Cluster 3 please, and fits in with some of What Tamara and MattH mentioned earlier with heights north and east retrogression to Greenland, maybe to early though but I like it
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1 minute ago, MJB said:
It certainly looks like we need luck or every single bit of the 1,000 piece jigsaw for the UK to get a decent Winter.
A lot of chat about the Zonal winds dropping light, a favourable MJO , EQBO as background signals to aid our hunt for snow and cold.
Currently the charts aren't even dangling much of a carrot ,though as Matt has said December 21st is the start of winter ( for me its December 1st ) nonetheless it hasn't started or only just, depending on your POV.
Plenty of time to go yet, I have read a post writing off the Winter before it started, come off it.
We all know what Jan / Feb and March can bring .
Don't give up the ghost.....................just yet.
The Met office outlook still points towards a colder start to next month and a small chance of being prolonged so totally agree with you there shouldn’t be so much despondency the outlook is still looking decent. Patients needed
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3 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:
Some serious strat warnings now showing up even in the normally conservative geps and now consistently in the GEFS.
Just need these to come more into the reliable timeframe and not at 300+ hours and we can hope from mid to late January we see the response and cold can come in, this I feel is our only way for country wide cold for the rest of this winter.
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Sliders back in the Mix from the 6z GFS if only
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6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
ICON is fully there.
Heights starting to drain from Spain good sign could be a good one here heights holding southern tip of Greenland come on down Santa you have tail winds
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3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
2nd attempt into Greenland looks much better.. could be stonking Boxing Day cold front coming through…
Vortex vacating Greenland to Siberia side low heights in the med, could be a powerhouse northerly on this run, fingers crossed
it’s one run and I bet it’s an outlier but a trend setter maybe?
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5 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Date watch - UK high once again appears on the GFS for Sat 16
Genoa low in play...just needs that secondary shunt to force the ridge NW and drop that lovely deep trough straight down through the UK...
I think it’s going to on this run the waa is going to force that whole vortex lobe towards scandi but I’m a little worried of it being to west based let’s see
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So much uncertainty and flapping about in the models these past couple of days but this I feel keeps us all in the game for snow, even in the balmy South west wales. If the last 4 runs had been showing the breakdown moving north with each new run I’d have been thinking Fair enough mild is coming but they a correcting south it seems. If this trend continues I’d be inclined to say even the Channel Islands could get in on the act leaving all the mainland uk cold through to end of next week at least
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Anyone up for a posh starter for the first day of winter?
Main course will be ready for Christmas
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1 minute ago, TauntonRoss said:
ECM is okay I suppose...
Yep I’d Bank that for first day of winter proper, I’d take a bit of risk reward this early in the season with 3 months or so of winter still to come it’s like a posh starter before the main course later in December if the Global drivers deliver the goods
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Classic fohn effect here now direct easterly winds coming up and over the beacons and causing it to warm up here now upto 4oC in north Swansea will probably be rain here as the front pushes in maybe some sleet in heavier bursts. Ah well is what it is
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This looks a bit more promising for Wednesday
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15 minutes ago, snefnug said:
Aidan’s Deep Dive on met office you tube was really fascinating. Felt chuffed I could understand what he was saying. So basically 60% chance colder, 20% chance snow, which chance gets greater through following week. I think…..
Yes and a battleground setting up shop over wales with blizzards up and down the country, now that would be a dream outcome
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:
This looks a perfect fit for the recent displacement of the pv over to our side of the northern hemisphere, you can see the imprint by looking how perfect a line there is running cross polar to our little islands just wow
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Another batch of heavy showers moving in now could produce with heavier bursts hopefully but of evaporative cooling
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1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Is that snow?
That’s not Snow it’s showing the flow of the jet stream, I wish it was snow though we’d be digging out for days
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20 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
No ,all parameters met plenty snow showers around Monday Tuesday.
Might even get a Pembrokeshire Dangler set up and push more inland with a more nnw wind by the looks of it, but hard to predict even 24 hours out these features so a watching radar and lamppost job.
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5 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
Double check that’s Rain for Swansea, Port Talbot etc, usual suspects Brecon Beacons North Wales. All you having outbid that is cold rain.
If you zoom into the yellow border I drew you can clearly see snow covering Gower Swansea Port Talbot even
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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Incoming!!
Wales, midlands all along the m4 corridor buried bank that thanks very much
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hopefully the last one for a while as the energy in the Atlantic starts heading further and further south on a weakening Jet less of a steer towards us and more down into southern France and then eventually into Iberia as we start pulling in polar maritime air and then arctic air as we enter the second week of Jan. It’s coming