Pembroke Dangler
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Posts posted by Pembroke Dangler
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The overriding pattern still points towards the polar vortex sitting primarily over the north Asia/Siberia local with continuing higher than average heights over Greenland and a general trend to put the uk in lower heights. Make of it what you will but we are in the ball park for a cold few weeks I would say.
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Some really heavy precipitation with the dangler, just need the winds to blow it more west now but so weird that it seems to hit land in Pembroke and dissipate.
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I do feel we need a run like the ukmo today to get us a chance at seeing some significant snow, tonight’s ecm keeps us cold but dry mostly. We need some risk reward type Synoptics to get what we all crave in here.
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6 hours ago, Sky Full said:
The GFS currently shows this ‘lying snow depth’ chart for the 12 December - just seven days away:
Hardly anywhere in Wales without snow in this chart. What’s even more surprising is that some snow is predicted to be lying on the ground at least until the 20th December which is the furthest reach of this model. This indicates below freezing temperatures even during the day. Who knows, this might even be a conservative outlook….🌨🌨
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Looks suggestive of a Dangler set up to me as there’s also snow cover showing on the north Devon coast too
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
I can’t say i’ve ever seen a low pressure disrupting underneath another low pressure system before.. is this new upgrade of the GFS okay? It seems incredibly broken.
It’s disrupting against that thin sliver of heights which dissects Iceland and Svalbard. Very wedgey I like it. Not looking further than this though tbh it’s going to be cold and the potential is there for some frontal Snow
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16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Forget the rest everyone. The Nasa model has got this one nailed
Well I happen to hold this model in high regard (when colder weather is showing
) even if the met office don’t. Would be a lovely way to keep the cold coming and with the kinky flow plenty of snow showers moving east to west and very cold nights nationwide.
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25 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:
This is true. I suppose it's inevitable as the bulk of the UK's population lives in the southeast, Midlands, northwest and Yorkshire, but it does trigger some eye-rolling when seemingly all of the talk is about scenarios that aren't very relevant to us "forgotten" peoples.
And yes, while I take interest in easterlies, give me an unstable, long-draw northerly any day. They often deliver for the whole of Wales, not just the north and west coasts. Did the Swansea area experience the streamer of Dec. 18th 2010 at all? That was from a northerly with a northwesterly component and there was ~40 cm of snow in the Valleys from that.
Remember it very well, the Irish Sea snow maker was in full effect then and with the cold northerly coming in Wednesday I’d expect some places will get pasted again fingers crossed, hopefully get the fabled Pembrokeshire dangler setting up with heavy snow showers piling in.
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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
GFS 18z op looks cleaner and we're already with an easterly flow by the 30th
And look at the lower heights gaining around the med. could be a rip snorter of a run coming up here
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Classic example of the Faun effect on the Gem bloody mountains ? always ruins west wales chances of Snow and cold
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I’m thinking the Cyclone in the pacific over the weekend has had a significant impact on the downstream pattern causing the Greenland height to retrogress to quickly and the response now as it begins to decline is for more heights to remain over Iceland and east Greenland putting more pressure on the incoming lows for the festive period so more trough disruption is showing that’s my take on it, could be that the lows disrupt even more over the coming few days and the Channel Islands could once again be the sweet spot
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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
UKMO uppers at 144. Not bad at all
You’d have to say anywhere between the -4 an 0oC isotherm would be ok as the drier colder air on the continent should engage the occlusion so rain to snow maybe
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1 hour ago, keithlucky said:
Super model outputs again boxing day. I'll wait for 3 days for firming up the details before using the word BOOM
Could be a January 1981 redux here
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It’s crazy to think that all that precipitation that was heading our way yesterday seemed to just evaporate as it came over land so we had a few scraps of snow but today the precipitation comes in unabated and intensifies over the land of only that had occurred yesterday. Never mind maybe one last wintery hoora to end the month and start of March (maybe) but also wouldn’t rule out an early spring warm up too. I know what I’d prefer
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Its looking quite poor to me guys
Agreed but I’m going to give it until the 12z tomorrow runs and if then the writing is on the wall i will be calling this the cold spell that could have been
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8 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Showers developed over the sea probably the moisture and the cold easterly wind. Looks like staying offshore
It’s snowing down Port-Eynon
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Looks like there’s a good line of precip heading over the beacons now heading for Swansea can it hold intensity or will the beacons sap ot before it reaches the coast
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Very encouraging met office update today with potential for more snowy breakdown scenarios moving forward sometimes there will be milder interludes but short lived and the potential for no mild at all this screams lots of snow for wales as fronts stall and slide
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These showers are looking stronger and more organised in the midlands could be right you know the Beeb app just a surprise of a few flakes will do until the main event later in the week
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4 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:
now got a single snowflake on the met forecast for 3am sunday morning all by his lonesome
Lol same for here but at 9am lol oit it this way it showed nothing for last Sunday here and practically snowed all day metoffice doesn’t have a very good handle in precip until the event starts it seems to me
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5 minutes ago, danthetan said:
Pretty much the same battle as now the cold air was lurking to the NE and mild air to the south. That low that went through was the trigger to pull down the cold air and allow a wedge of high pressure to form which with cold air stalled the low coming in off the Atlantic and dropped the hammer.
Yes I remember my folks speaking of the event it was forecast to be rain in the south but it was so wrong snowed for around 18 hours constant yet across the Bristol Channel they had rain. The archive chart above shows the 0oC 850 isotherm was just touching Wales’s south coast. Uppers aren’t everything in event like this if the winds ahead of the advancing front are from an east or south easterly direction off the continent more often than not there will be snow and allot of it. This one coming next week has all the hall marks of the 1982 event just look at the GEM shows hours of snow almost all over wales.
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1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:Where’s that low going?
Hopefully it will follow the one before and slide into France dumping loads of snow to the south and west as it does so
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What I’ve been encouraged by is that on all the model runs between yesterday and so far today the cold has been shown to carry on past what was supposed to be next Wednesday but has now been moved back to Friday and I bet as we gain closer it will move into Saturday and so on so the it seems the track of the Atlantic lows is showing to take a east south east track int France as apposed to just bulldozing through the uk and as such more and more snow opportunities for us in Wales as we remain to the north of these lows. Could be some places with over a metre of snow come next Friday beacons will be the sweet spot with widely 10-20cm of snow right down to sea level. Don’t tell the family yet though
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Sure I seen someone mention on the mad thread the other day about some crayons and different colours which covered most the east coast but look the crayons have been used to colour wales now instead happy days lol
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9 minutes ago, andymusic said:
12z Icon's looking good for Wales with an Atlantic front hitting the cold air and dumping it's snowy goodness, so a good start to todays 12zs
Yes the front looks like sliding to the south and wales remains on the colder side with battleground snow which in the past have produced a good few cm of snow could be a January 81 redux with wales getting 18 hours of continuous snow and the folks in Devon and Cornwall get rain such would be the boundary high risk high reward
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted · Edited by Pembroke Dangler
It’s kind of reached us but the precip is so light and air so cold it’s evaporating before it’s hit the ground. No intensity to help it reach ground level.