Pembroke Dangler
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Posts posted by Pembroke Dangler
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4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Improvement on the GFS 12Z. Solid move towards EC op. Lets see how this looks by 240h.
Yes a net easterly draw there, think it’s as far as I’m looking ahead here it’s an improvement and would probably think the GFS will blow lows up later on in the run. Nice up to this point
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8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Not sure if it's my imagination, but the lows coming off the ESB seem to be getting weaker on each run. Not sure if that affects anything?
Could probably do with them being stronger and digging further south off the eastern seaboard so it would help drive warm air advection up into Greenland to block the Atlantic altogether.
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6 minutes ago, Snowmut said:
Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?
Allow the arrows to guide you, there’s no way that high will fall back into the med as long as the low (Black line heads to Italy then the high (red arrow) moves to Scandi and voila the beast comes along the blue arrow. At least that’s how I see the 48 hours following.
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1 hour ago, Loadsa2000 said:
Now wouldn’t that be something huh the Swansea Snow shield moving north over Brecon allowing the snow to batter us here in the snow desert lol
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6 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Turned to snow here.
Great example of evaporative cooling
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Definitely a bit of sleet in these heavier bursts coming in now uppers must be cooling behind the cold front that went through earlier
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Had a few flakes here this morning left a dusting on the cars and road first flakes of 2020 here how ironic it’s the last day of the year lol
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3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
UKV extended also showing an Easterly into the start of next week.
That will feel bitter, cold east wind and temps around 2-4 feeling like -2 -4 in the wind chill brrr seasonal indeed
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2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:
More rain which we don't need. Flooding might become an issue if these streamers keep coming
Yeah I think the Irish Sea needs to drop another few degrees which since last week has, it was 10oC now it’s down to 9oC we need to shave another couple of degrees off it down to about 7 this will do two things 1. It will stop the colder air getting modified as it comes in from the north and 2. Less precipitation but with the right depth of cold still enough to produce lake effect snow. We can but dream lol
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For me the period after tomorrow mornings potential south coast clipper is showing more interest if you look at the fax charts, the all important 528 Dam line (etched lines) is showing to head way south of us and there’s plenty of little fronts and troughs embedded in the north flow so fingers crossed we’ll be in the game for a while I feel.
Sorry the charts aren’t in the correct order lol go bottom up
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Really wish the steamer tonight would head further east to hit Brecon as it’s just so heavy the rain is here and a waste of potential snow for the beacons and higher ground. Maybe they should issue a flood warning
for here it’s literally belting down.
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12 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Heavier pp near let's see what happens
Think we will be relying on heavy stuff with a bit of evaporative cooling to get anything remotely sleety out of this tonight 3oc here just ain’t cutting the mustard
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33 minutes ago, andymusic said:
latest harmonie suggests precip over ireland on wednesday morning - moving in our direction possibly?
Looks likely to be an unclosed shortwave heading in from the north west sliding in
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Yellow weather warning area has been expanded to cover most of central and southern wales bar the coastal areas and Bar the west and north coasts
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Merry Christmas all here’s to a much more festive looking 10 days
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Ta da
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34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
At 162 hrs, according to weather.us,
IMBY I'm seeing 22 in farenheight for my location...
I'm not entirely sure that's right!
That would equate to -5.5 Celsius?
I believe they factor wind chill into the forecast temperature over there where as out forecast just gives raw temperature.
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4 hours ago, keithlucky said:
You can see Icelandic low spreading south as.Fun start on the 27th look at the Arctic air moving south nearly reaching Scotland.(purple area)
Yes it looks promising and as we draw nearer the time notice how the 850 temps are coming down. Somewhere in wales will get pasted I’d punt at somewhere like Merthyr could get buried in snow
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Bit gutted about lockdown really, as can’t go for a drive up to Brecon and walk up pen y fan next week between Xmas and new year to got a snow fix. So fingers crossed the snow can come here and bury me
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20 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
VERY good lol.Borrowed snow depth charts.
Good old Swansea snow shield in great effect there lol could swing back to yesterday’s chart where we had a couple cm’s. plenty of time until the details get firmed up on but we’ve got a ticket to the raffle at least.
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9 minutes ago, andymusic said:
xmas looking cold and frosty with a small chance of the odd flake
26th/27th could see some snow coming into Wales
ECM has a major beasterly incoming from around 240hrs onwards
gfs 12z has the easterly into the new year itself
still too early for any real detail really BUT the models are starting to firm up on possible cold scenarios with each run for the next week or two and maybe even beyond that due to a Greenland high. Might well be worth getting your snow shovels at the ready along with your sledges.
Andy from the top of the Graigerhorn lol
Yes it’s a great watch on the mod thread at the moment lots of excitement at the prospect of some proper winter weather frosty freezing fog and as you say the chance of a few flakes on the big day itself. But it’s the period after Christmas that’s got my attention possible Greenland High setting up then morphing in to a scandi leading to a Beasterly for 29th, and all this before a SSW looks to split the tropospheric polar vortex in two which could bring the real winter blast for the rest of winter
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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Looking at the 06Z ensemble this morning, for Oslo, the OP was a huge outlier for MSLP at 968mb. The 12Z OP is showing that LP at 956mb now, so it'll be interesting to see if the MSLP is an outlier on the 12Z too.
That would suggest the GFS is doing it's usual thing of going over the top with those systems.
Yes also if the pattern did head down the repeating northerly Toppler route you’d hope for a far less intense hurricane force storm tracking down the North Sea so that there’s less mixing out of the colder air coming from the north/ North west. So purely from a pattern perspective it’s good we just need the systems to be less intense say a MSLP of around 990- 1000.
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27 minutes ago, lynncradick said:
Just popped into the model output thread.. there's mutterings about it getting colder for Christmas week Hope so, got thoroughly soaked walking the dog earlier, mountain top is sodden, virtual lakes in places.. not asking for snow, though that would be wonderful, just some seasonal cold, frosty days.. any thoughts on the likelihood of this?
It’s looking more likely we could be in for a cold Christmas period with frosty drier conditions but depends on how strong any north/northwesterly wind is off the Irish Sea which could pick up some moisture and give a few places a surprise dusting of snow for the big day itself, to far away for details but similar patterns in the past have brought snow showers in streams off the Irish Sea but at the moment temperatures at 850 may not be cold enough but there’s time for it change.
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34 minutes ago, syed2878 said:
those of us who are looking for seasonal Christmas weather even a bit of sleet and snow I won’t post it here but take a look at the BBC monthly outlook a very interesting and quite enjoyable read.
Sounds like they are going by EC46 guidance with higher pressure to the north and east and lower pressure to the south, could be looking at slider gate come early January, hopefully we can sustain colder air around our shores so the fronts can bump into them but let’s not get ahead ourselves let’s get the next 7 days patterns nailed first for a Christmas chill and hopefully a few surprises of a snowy kind
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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
900 will do