Frank Trough
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Posts posted by Frank Trough
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
This GFS run sponsored by the Miracle of December 2022 mini-series .
Quite extraordinary salvaging of what looked like a dire situation at T132 hrs .
it's still fairly dire for the south in that's it's basically raining from sunday until tuesday.
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1 hour ago, festivalking said:
Yes indeed 11c here by Sunday. But before then have woken up to see the met office suggesting there will be 5 hours of snow on tuesday evening. Even into Plymouth snow is predicted. Yikes.
Oh and it is -2.9c
The UKMO looks good for that (and even further east along the south coast) and ECM to an extent. GFS which was backing it has it all further south.now.
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Wet snow now in Christchurch. Better than nothing!
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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
9m asl. All snow.
Wareham
Bizarre. Can’t believe we’ve only managed rain! But happy for you of course
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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Are you at elevation? Has it been all snow?
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6 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:
Well the radar suggested we should have a good covering of snow in Dorset, but its just cold and damp really. Very dissapointing, wish I stayed in bed and had a lie in. Never mind.
Yep, raining steadily here. Pretty grim out.
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More like rain here now
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Just now, sukayuonsensnow said:
According to the radar you should be having 50p snowflakes fall in your location at the moment. Unless it just hasn't arrived yet.
We have tiny snow grains falling here. You have to concentrate to see it. My children are not impressed.
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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:
Radar suggests snow here now in Poole, but there is nothing falling. Its -2 so plenty cold enough but nothing
Nothing is falling? Must be evaporating higher up? (Not technical description
)
edit - light snow falling here now
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We had a little dusting here in Bournemouth (Iford) overnight. Definitely isn’t just frost. A pleasant surprise. Assume that approaching precip isn’t snow to the west of the conurbation?
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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:
The ECM is better than this mornings run, there is a cut off wedge of heights towards Iceland that will try to work in our favour.
Trouble is it’s west of Iceland.
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1 hour ago, festivalking said:
Bless the ICON - its only big win i can think of is that it led the way for the BFTE in 2018. Others soon got on board but the seed was planted within that model. Interesting though that MO do take ICON seriously and is fed into like the other models into their output.
A bit anecdotal, but it also did brilliantly (much better than all the other models) with a storm in September a few years back. I remember because I was running a fishing event that weekend so paid particular attention. The ICON got the wind direction (NNW) and precipitation timings nailed before the others.
(The day was a write off fishing wise ).with no real evidence to back it up apart from that METO update, I have a gut feeling that this won’t be the only significant cold spell before the end of March. It just feels primed
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I’m going off the UKV mind you, I went off dry roasted peanuts for a bit but I am very much back on them now. Maybe the UKV will find something in the next couple of days. Not hopeful though.
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5 minutes ago, SouthernSnowFan said:
It was touched on yesterday, but I'm really interested to know what brought that epic dumping in January 2010 to our parts? (The dumping which was suggesting 40cm for Southampton, it was lowered to around 15-20cm though).
Thinking back that far, it feels as if this was quite an evolving situation but for the life of me, I cannot remember what the forecasts or models were showing for this. None of the historic threads in the model forum go back that far either.
I'm just clutching at straws really, what do we need for a similar event? Was it a channel low that pushed a touch further north and ran across the southern quadrant?
i think it was this you're thinking of?
I was in Locks Heath then. Brilliant event that was - had to abandon my car in Bursledon tesco and walk the rest of the way home from work.
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Just now, coxx657 said:
looks like am airfield
yes, that's what that "A" shape is. Runways so you can take off/land in all directions. Sometimes they're old wartime airfields rather than current ones.
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48 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
To be fair that isn’t true! Bournemouth has seen plenty of snow events with it settling on beaches. It just depends if the off shore breeze turns it to rain! It’s right timing with the winds!
It’s all relative, though. There are obviously examples when we did ok - perhaps better - compared to everywhere else. But they’re memorable because they don’t happen very often. I’m not complaining, it’s just geography. Just have to accept it.
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22 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
Why are metoffive so keen on it being sleet and rain? And a breakdown? Or does it only make it into southwest England. I thought it was snow
The METO absolutely love forecasting “rain on coasts”. They’re usually right
i bet it drizzled in east Bournemouth in the last mini ice age.
I’m so desperate now that I’m just giving myself a pep talk about “at least it will be dry”. River levels drop and I might finally get fishing next week
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27 minutes ago, Matty-H said:
Met Office outlook doesn’t even mention transitional snow, which surprises me:
“Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Tuesday and Wednesday will be cloudy, with a chance of snow showers along southern coasts on Tuesday. Rain moves in Thursday. Continuing to be very cold with brisk easterly winds.”
“Chance of snow showers along southern coasts on Tuesday”
really?
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Met office has me down for either light cloud or thicker cloud from now until Friday ....when it then offers up an hour or two of light rain.
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35 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Tuesday's front is now in France.
This is the last frame of the UKV:
You’ll be sure to let us know when there’s some good news, won’t you?
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2 minutes ago, khodds said:
Does anyone remember that really small feature (mini low?) that came in from the east and skirted along the south coast one year and took everyone by surprise with quite a lot of snowfall years back? Must have been at least 7 years ago? What was it and when was it?!
Was that overnight November 30th/December 1st 2010? A little area of instability and it delivered a nice covering ( I was in locks Heath then). It was modelled in advance though.
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Tuesday close to very interesting on the GFS 12z:
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17 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
I just find it really odd how confident met were with there colder outlook and now have completely flipped.
I think given what we're seeing not to mention the additional information the METO have, milder air getting in down here looks the form horse now. A bit disappointed to be honest so really hoping to see snow (even just some falling flakes) before the end of the week.
*edit*
you can see from the ICON 12z (i know, i know) how much the LP is struggling. It makes it but not by much and a fairly quick return to cold looks a good bet on the t+180 chart:
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53 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
So... UKMO and icon have the low tracking south which gives a massive dumping of snow!
GFS has it tracking north which would be 
️Rain . Which will it be? Hopefully ECM backs UKmo
while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!!
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
How did the UKV do with predicting the precipitation yesterday?