Frank Trough
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Posts posted by Frank Trough
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I’ve just been for a run. We must have had a very localised, light fall of snow here in east Bournemouth (Iford). It’s definitely not just frost. Even a mile up the river valley there’s nothing except a bit of frost.
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14 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
Looks precisely what the METO were banging on about a week or so ago, high pressure over the UK for the beginning of January.
Plenty of places that have been deluged and flooded will be very grateful for a prolonged dry spell. A uk high would do the job.
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snowing quite hard in Fleet (NE Hants) but not settling. I wasn't expecting to see any so still a bonus.
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1 minute ago, Rapodo said:
Ditto not convinced myself!
Can't see it either looking at the radar. Seems like it's almost through here. Chucking it down now though.
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While I'm pleased to see falling snow I just can't see it settling much here if at all. It's not heavy enough and the front seems to be rattling through. Presumably the pivot is what we're after and where the settling might kick in?
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Looks like it's turning to snow here now (east Bournemouth)
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2 minutes ago, divadee said:
What would that mean for us living in Bournemouth Rapodo? I'm still learning!
It would be good! Fully braced for the rain which is imminent now but lets hope that swings in our favour later this evening.
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1 minute ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:
Do u think we’ll get any?? Met o showing us as heavy rain all evening
I would think that at least St Catherines Down, Bonniface and the central ridge all have a decent chance?
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9 minutes ago, divadee said:
Need to nudge the warning south by about 8 miles
I think I am either just in or right on the line. Need to temper expectations - i will still be very pleasantly surprised. Also need to do some work....
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4 minutes ago, saintkip said:
I’m sure you do and with respect I think you will be pleasently suprised
hmmmm....I would LOVE you to be right
I think you're in a cracking spot - i think the Basingstoke Plateau will cop it this evening.
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7 minutes ago, divadee said:
Maybe overnight tonight. I'm just too close to the coast. Have a feeling if we went over ferndown or parley or verwood it would be a very different story.
The new forest will too i should think - the bit up Poulner Hill is always good.
in these situations i just end up waiting and hoping for positive news from coastal locations further west...
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6 minutes ago, kumquat said:
Good to see this model keep improving the totals for most of the region.
i don't like that Poole bay grey area! it's been consistent with that too....
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4 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:
It will reach about 5 today around midday in your location.
i think we're going to be just the wrong side of marginal here. I'm about 1.5 miles inland and i suspect i won't have to go far to find the snow line.
maybe better prospects for friday here?
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14 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Check the post 4 above yours which shows the HIRLAM prediction, notice the grey bits round the edge..
The HIRLAM was brilliant for last year's events (unfortunately). I think central southern coastal dwellers will have to go inland a bit to see anything. The high bit of the New Forest east of Ringwood is often ok when it's just rain IMBY.
Tis almost always the case for us directly on the coast - it takes a really memorable set up for us not to have to worry.
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4 minutes ago, cheese said:
Really? Last March was cold but April and a May weren’t. 2017 wasn’t cold either. Or 2016.
or 2014 and 2015.
I worded that very badly - I meant predictions of cold springs are routine!
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One thing that is assured is that the second week of march will feature biting easterly winds and leaden skies (but no snow - maybe just a few grains). I know this because I am on holiday that week and the children will be desperate to do outdoor stuff....
Everything I've seen or read seems to indicate that a cold spring is a given. They seem to be routine now (certainly they are predicted every year since 2013). Blocking statistically more likely in spring anyway, couple that with sod's law that it won't deliver in winter and it's not hard to see it panning out that way again.
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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Just a thought ...... whilst last feb was a very different ssw, we saw the nwp model a repsonse for around the 19th feb on the models ...... this fell apart after a couple days with Atlantic firing up but the proposed pattern came back for less than a week later (with a vengeance). Now we aren’t looking at a scandi high this time but the euro trough, whilst failing to sustain later this week will have another go and another go and at some point it will stick!
In march, probably.
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
That model is so poor. It gave me and large parts of England a full on snow even earlier in the winter, and there wasn't a flake away from the hills. Often way off on temperatures too. It's pretty useless.
For last March's easterly one of the arpege or HIRLAM was miles out and the other spot on (for down here). I can't remember which way round it was...
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1 minute ago, chris55 said:
The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!!
And I don’t say that often.
if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine.
If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.
Indeed, maybe another 24 hours after that for the mid term. We aren't there yet - it will be cold but whether we'll see a proper cold spell is not yet clear.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.
Indeed. But it does demonstrate that the ICON solution has legs (and not forgetting the UKMO was close).
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good!
Are there going to be any ICON options in there?
What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....
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Just now, Steve Murr said:
You cannot spin it as standard fayre-
London 850 average is -2c for Jan so thats about 6-7 below ave for the time of year...
But in an average winter you would still expect the odd colder shot? as a whole, this winter so far is dismal and the output going forward shows a Standard colder spell, but nothing more. The odd day here and there of colder uppers doesn't make a freeze.
luckily anything inside t+168 would be a bonus. My understanding is we should still be looking further ahead.
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13 minutes ago, Skyraker said:
I don’t remember the fv3 modelling anything seasonal in December.
Perhaps you have a chart to jog our memory.
Seriously? Go back and look at the archives or check back on the old threads.
Who cares anyway when you have the ECM
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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
except Bournemouth of course