[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Too many underreactions today!! 

Classic run from FV3, T384 snow chart, just for fun, obviously.

I honestly can't see what's not to like, even the GFS 6z, it got there in the end didn't it?

The worry with this SSW compared to the Feb 18 one was whether this time the pieces would fall conducive to UK cold.  Barring every single model being wrong, they have fallen conducive.  So we move on...

The SSW is a major one, with prolonged wind reversal in the strat.  And with ECM 46, very latest GloSea5, and CFS all going for significant high latitude blocking for weeks if not months in the case of GloSea5, the effects will be long term, so - breathe - and let the snowiest half of winter in living memory unfold!

If the FV3 was correct we would have already had freeze. Christmas would have been seasonal.

i would ignore it for now.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM Mean 144 V GFS 144 Mean shows the eastward bias of the GFS, also if you scroll through the GFS at 144 they are all over the shop!

maybe ECM's westward bias? Let's be honest, we would have had a lot more snow over the years if the GFS could just be ignored or it always simply caught up with the ECM.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH EC 46 tonight is a real biggie- it will almost certainly play a big part in Exeters update tomorrow, finger crossed..

It won't determine what actually happens though. The real biggies always get to t+72 with cross model support. 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

8 minutes ago, Purga said:

Maybe not, maybe yes.

We all love the Beast

Won't come close to verifying. The beast is dying.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

49 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at the GFS this afternoon and I'm thinking spring doesn't look to be turning up any time soon.

Spring will be turning up. The raw output for the south on the GFS is pretty average fair. A few ups and a few downs. 

Bound to be a few colder spells, it's still only march. As long as we don't see a repeat of 2013 I'll be happy.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Well that was fun wasn't it? Not enjoying the ice everywhere this morning.

Spring now please.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

I'm pretty sure it's straight rain here now. It was wet hitting my coat and hands. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

As expected we have freezing rain falling..

I'm waiting for that heavier precip now in the hope that is snow. I just went out the back and I'm sure what we have here is ice pellets rather rain. For now.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

It's been a memorable day hear in Christchurch, the kid got to see proper snow for the first time, snow is definitely turning to sleet/rain now though!

Yep - it's turned the wrong side of snow here too. Can hear it on the window in the wind gusts. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m eyeing up this clump and crossing my fingers 

 

this is falling as freezing rain over the channel islands?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

13 minutes ago, Mr Plough said:

Moderate snow in Bristol, cant believe the central heating has packed in what a day for it to go!!!!!

ours did too! the condensation pipe had frozen up (we didn't lag it, being in tropical Bournemouth). I had to use a combination of a hairdryer (leaning out the bedroom window) and hot kettle to the ice in the pipes. Seems to be working now....

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My parents are travelling down to south Brittany and it’s -7 and snowing. 

This is good news.Please let's keep the faith for later on and keep willing that radar to start looking pretty. I sent my daughter off to nursery this morning amidst much protesting about "snow daddy, you no drive..i stay at home with daddy". Promised her i would get her early and that there would be more snow later........please, please deliver!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

My personal target by Friday afternoon is 10cm.  If I can reach this figure, I will be more than happy.

Anything less than 5cm and I will be hurt and disappointed.

I would gladly settle for 5cm for our area tomorrow. 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

we’ll have none of that 

I think we'll need all our collective positivity for tomorrow in the hope Bomo can join the fun. There is a lot riding on it now......including my decision to "work at home" tomorrow and cancel two meetings

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

to my relatively untrained and tooth-infectioned eye the 06z GFS looks like a significant upgrade for tomorrow morning for us:

 

light precip, but more of it!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

really hoping for some showers for Bomo today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow - I really need some good news and hope we'll get a covering. I've got a raging tooth infection and I really need cheering up.

Working at home tomorrow in bomo but this is the view from my office window in Fleet this morning..

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

chucking it down in Farnborough! just couldn't see this happening an hour ago! bonkers.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

41 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Getting heavy here now and statt If to settle. looks like it’s all the way down the M3 going by the radar, should be an interesting journey home!

yes Karlos, still snowing here down the M3 - some pretty heavy bursts in it. Covering the grass and roofs nicely now.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

snowing here at work in Farnborough - got a nice dusting here now. It started as soon as I pulled off the M3 at Junction 4a.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Holy channel low! The ECM is EXACTLY what we need! You couldn't draw it any better! I'm going to drink to it!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

As a Bomosapian I am "banking" the 06z. It's about as good as it gets - precipitation at the end of the week gets far enough north and runs along the coast without diluting the uppers etc too much. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you can guarantee that uppers won’t get above zero and surface flow will remain se then it can get as close as it likes! However, it’s the ultimate ‘high risk = high reward ‘ on this upcoming pattern and if we get it to run up the channel and pull the deep cold back in behind then as long as it doesn’t rejig the neg NAO too far west it’s the best evolution !

Living in Bomo I'm going to say "take the risk"! I think it's the best chance we'll get of significant snow - showers don't necessarily cut it for our area in an easterly.

 

Is it 1978 that this remind me a bit of? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, jtay said:

I was 14 and our family lived nr Fawley on the South coast.

I can remember we definately had snow, because we strapped my sledge (the one in my Av) to the roof of my Dad's bright green 2CV on a snowday and he drove four of us out to Gatebridge, between Holbury and Blackfield on the edge of the New Forest.

We definately had snow, 'cos we were doubling up skeleton style and bombing down the hill towards the river. When we went back at the weekend and the snow had all but gone, we were still able to sledge down the refrozen melt water.

 

If Fawley had snow, surely I must be mis-remembering (?) that spell...although I'm sure I'm not! Maybe the IOW was really unlucky with shower tracks or something.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

much talk on other threads of the latest BBC forecast which apparently says cold but "dry" next week (compared to raging westerlies it will be dry ). anyway, that got me thinking about the 1991 February easterly (which has also featured heavily in discussion lately).

I'm sure somebody will correct me or tell me I'm remembering wrong, but I think I remember that spell very clearly. I was living on the IOW and it was certainly cold - the Canoe lake on Ryde seafront froze solid - but snow? not really. A few flurries early on and some "snizzle stuff" as the Atlantic moved in (which melted in the afternoon). I think most of north and east Hants did much better - but how about Dorset/Bournemouth in that spell? similar to my memories on the Island?

Or am I talking guff?

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps mean is headed the wrong way for next weeks cold pool. Two runs trending the wrong way and this morning’s accelerates away from what we need. 

I hope the second warming isn’t going to destroy our chances which were clearly good following the initial SSW. of course we could be chasing another wintry nirvana for the following weekend if the eps are in the right ballpark !!

Spring nirvana by then